Just Nifty: March 2012

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Pay From Ur Heart ....It is Radical generosity

On a hot Amdavadi afternoon, when the roads were as deserted as they could be, the Sabarmati Ashram was buzzing with visitors. There were school kids, a group of old ladies and some foreigners taking a stroll around the ashram, mainly in the museum – “Gandhi Smarak Sangrahalay”. While I was roaming around, my phone rang – “Hello” – “Hello, I am standing opposite to the Ashram” – “Will be there in 5 minutes”. Just as I reached the ashram exit, I had a look at the opposite end of the road. An atypical Amdavadi auto-driver, with a Gandhi Topi, waved his hand – I wondered how he recognized me, meeting for the first time.

Ahmedabad No Richshawalo - Udaybhai
Udaybhai, as everyone calls him, came to me and took me and my mother (who was accompanying me, which made me a little nervous as she was witnessing my work for the first time) for a ride till Safaai Vidyalaya (a very low profile unexplored place right next to the Sabarmati Ashram). While we sat in the unique auto, Udaybhai took out two badges having a smiley and pinned one of them to my t-shirt. It was only a moment of time before he started describing his rickshaw. The energy, excitement and brightness in his eyes were very evident as he ran me through the unique features of his rickshaw.

Nifty's ending diagonal(Falling wedge) ended the corrective phase with an assertive reversal.

The reversal rally has closed below 20sma after getting resisted @ 50Sma. A firm opening above 50sma would sail it towards the channel resistance.

"5310" is April month pivot and 5246 is next week's pivot and these would play critical roles into the truncated week ahead.

Earlier 5268 low when Nifty fell from 5630 would also play a support.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Similarities continues...and a gap up is a likely repeat.
5195-29th High & 5214-DEma-Longs above these.
5237-02nd Apr, Monday's JNSAR and 2-Day High for the reversal confirmation.
R3-5262.
Last day of the month for the month to "assert its trend" and make amends in the day trend and set up an easy possibility of week's trend to turn up next week, if not this week.
All these possible by holding above "5145".
Yes..Indus..Your observations are correct. Only market can validate them. Dare..!

Nifty's ending diagonal requires a reversal confirmation.

Durga...Congratulations for winning the settlement close contest.
durga 5180 3/29/2012 14:30:00 prev support.

Jiignesh..Thank you for your consistent efforts.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

"5205-10", the last 2-hours High where in placed 21 hr sma and strength and weakness would be above & below them. Act accordingly in the opening session.

If it is an "ending diagonal" from 5386, the bottom should have been in already & if not in the opening session around 5155(MEma)-5165(S1) and it should reverse to clear yesterday's high of 5237. That is not asking much from the bulls.

For Bears, the weekly trend, Day trend favours continuation of downtrend and break of 5141 would add to their "might".

Irrespective of global cues, the OI of March series would play its role today.

Nifty, though made a doble bottom @ 5170, is yet to confirm a reversal.

If we observe the last fall from 5386, its sub-segments are contracting as below:
5386 to 5209 = 180 points
5312 to 5175 = 137 points(76.1% of 180)
5278 to 5170 = 108 points(78.8% of 137)
Hence, a fall of more than 137 points which is "5141" would make the fall deeper)
Similarly the rises have been 106 & 103 and so whenever the rise is more than 103 points, we could assume it to be a reversal.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

"5278", yesterday's high is crucial as a trigger(29th JNSAR & today's J10SAR)
Intraday strength above 5251, DEma & weakness below it.
"5228-5235"(21Hr Sma/Day pivot)breaking down point for lower levels-5155-60 zone.
Expecting MEma & 200sma to hold for a reversal & at worst Mth JNSAR.

Similarities in correctives continued but I missed stating it during the intra rise...

(Lower close @ 10.00AM would turn the Hr Lead indicator down again)

Nifty's indecision reaches its peak near the bottom with a "long legged doji"..

Definition of 'Long-Legged Doji'

A type of candlestick formation where the opening and closing prices are nearly equal despite a lot of price movement throughout the trading day. This candlestick is often used to signal indecision about the future direction of the underlying asset.

Investopedia explains 'Long-Legged Doji'

Long-legged doji candles are deemed to be the most significant when they occur during a strong uptrend or downtrend. The long-legged doji suggests that the forces of supply and demand are nearing equilibrium and that a shift in the direction of the trend may be coming.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long-legged-doji.asp#ixzz1qJJ71QWI

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

The similarities are continuing to play out. If resisted around 5310-5320 zone, another fall is likely. But there are traders who would look at the risk-rewards of Longs post this correction & thus become impatient to move in on every dip, thus making the last part of the corrections truncated.

80% mark of the last fall is @ 5344 but around 5320, there is a break out possibility from the trendline and hence the JNSAR with filter.

However, one could go long on a breakout above 5255, 21 hr sma and manage the trade then on.

Only the EOD prices alter the technicals.

Nifty closes below 50dma, trader's last bull indicator(Reversal on a close above it)

Nifty could continue down as in a simple "abc" correction.
Nifty could make a triangle formation with "abcde" correction.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

Note closely at the similarities in the two correctives: 5630 to 5171 and 5499 to the ongoing one.
There is a bear flag formed at "5312", the breakdown point of the same is at 5248 at the opening.

Camarilla's L3-5253, opening below which weakness, coincides with HLEma-5255.

For bull strength, minor above 5300 & 5320 and breakout above 5350.

Life is magical --- every day!

Dear Rajiv Malik,

Many many happy returns of the day.

While I wish you the happiest birthday, accept my "thank you" for all your continuous sharing through innumerable emails to me on health, wealth, joy & jokes and much more. This story is dedicated to you.

Our prayers and well wishes for Vishal's speedy recovery.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

In a modest Mumbai home, I met Ankur before the start of a meditation gathering. "This is Ankur," our host Sachi had said, with the catching enthusiasm she’s known and loved for, "He's an amazing photographer and has recently gone totally ‘gift economy’." For the uninitiated, in this context the term gift economy means a system in which people do not charge for their services, but rather offer them up in the unconditional spirit of a gift, inviting recipients to “pay-forward” what they wish from their heart. It represents a broader shift, a movement if you will, from; transaction to trust, a mindset of scarcity to one of abundance; from isolation to community and from consumption to contribution. It is an unusual mode in which to live and to make a living-- to say the least.

“What’s your experience been like so far?” I ask him. “Beautiful,” he says, “ I love gifting people my work and having them let their heart decide how much to give.” “But what made you decide to work in this way?” I ask him. “Three eight-year-old monks stood on a cliff edge and saved my life,” responds Ankur.