Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
89 comments:
@Pankaj,
I cant see id, in your profile
c must be start now for tgt 5175
GM sir and all :)
Sir - While eating "dosa" sudden doubt about "doji" :( Is that doji a "HL, HH, nd higher closing"??? if so tht may be a "hidden indication for +veness??" I am still very bad buying @ low throwing someway high again buying low :P Any 100rs. chance is there if at all 5191 protects in coming days?? thanks n advance.
PS : I am against "all's view" pls. delete after reading my comment. as some may get confuse but i am able to manage
@Rajvada - still adamently sitting on Low :( do or die
m i right sir ? if wrong then correct just start to learn
Sir - forgot - and the doji is abv the mid point of Monday's red candle. courtesy - icharts.showing +ve ness??
Gaureshji - that's excellent
@vikram,
Sorry. updated profile.
@ Sujatha,
The fall from 5386 is having each segment contracting. Observe it now:
5386 to 5209 = 180 points fall
5206 to 5312 = 106 points rise
5312 to 5175 = 137 points rise
5175 to 5278 = 103 points rise
5278 to Should not fall more than 137 points which is "5141".
As the 137 pt fall is of 76% of earlier fall, this fall too might limit itself to around 5175.
And whenever the rise is more than 103 points, we could assume it to be a reversal.
What is GAAR and what is issue of P-NOTES....
GAAR (General Anti-Avoidance Rule)
is a taxation regulation that will make investors pay tax who otherwise legally avoid it. It must be kept in mind that legal evasion of tax is not the same as avoidance of tax.That GAAR will be introduced in India as a part of the Direct Tax Code was mentioned by the finance minister a year back. But this year’s budget made it clear it will be applicable from 1 April. So under GAAR, the revenue authorities will get to tax transactions or arrangements which were conducted or set up just to get tax benefits.So routing transactions through Mauritius when there is no substantial purpose to route it from there other than achieving the tax benefit will not be allowed.
P-NOTES
P-notes are financial instruments used by investors or hedge funds that are not registered with Sebi to invest in Indian securities. The investor does not have to fulfill KYC (Know Your Client) norms here and gets to invest whatever amount he wants by keeping his own identity hidden. There is confusion in the market whether the gains from these instruments will also be taxed. Now, with the finance ministry’s statement, there could be temporary relief, but FIIs might not be wholly convinced. Sections 9 and 95 of the new Finance Bill (under which GAAR was introduced) says clearly that any transfer of shares in India which gives rise to income anywhere else will be taxable here. These sections will clearly have to be amended if cash investments of P-notes routed through tax havens like Mauritius will have to be exempted from tax.
@Sujatha, I am still buying in cash segments. Intraday only with call-put of Nifty. I am of opinion of having significant upside somewhere from here if the 5175-85 is protected on closing basis.
@ NEVER GIVE UP,
Market's action/ prices alone will tell you whether you or anyone is correct or not.. Not me.
I have shared my observations and if they concur with yours, it means we observe similarly. It does not mean we both are right. We both will be right, if we make money out of our observations and acting on them.
Dear sir, Is there a fastfall set up in the Nifty 13, 35,55, 200 EMA charts of Nifty.
request your observation.
all right and thanks sir
Swami Shivkumaar,
13,35,55 emas have moved below 200ema - weakness.
13ema is rising to 200ema and if it turns down without touching 200ema - it'll be a fast fall.
Illango ji,
Can u pl check ur mail & clear my doubts sir ?
urs
If 233DMA(5209 EOD) will not be protected then
233WMA (4870-75) will be the next tgt.
after such a big fall...we should expect the markets to touch the lower bollinger level or atleast be very close to it ..before reversal....in the daily 20 period bollinger band ..the lower level is still 90 points far
OR break not sustaining + Sujatha's observations ===> ??? Bullishness
Ok. This is only weakness and FF is yet to arise. Thanks for your teachings once again
nifty may give 7 weekly red candles.
@ Shriram,
You are good at "presenting a system in a methodical way".
It should be shared prominently..Soon... as a post.
My suggestion to you is: Once it is devised. milk it till it demands fine tuning. If not, just continue.
all right and thanks sir.very well explained.
all right and thanks sir.very well explained.
This is a bounce to the 21 hr sma..It should weaknen from here.
Intraday shorts SL is 5235.
just for lighter mood...
my Rpower indicator is still far away from 108,
so how nifty can bottom just yet?
Reverse flag forming. This need to get invalidated by sustained move on today's rising channel. Other wise another move towards 5175.
Dear Illango ji,
Just wanted ur blessings to post it here,
since the Qs shud be seen as attempts to THROW LIGHT ON WHY THINGS WORK , get to the CORE of the Hi-Lo SYSTEM, & LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENTS & not to be misconstrued as fancy doubts to change a smooth & well-Oiled system :-)
JN Family --> reposting my doubts, here for open discussion, as advised by master:
Pl ruminate & shower in ur feedback & valuable thoughts
<<<
Illango ji,
Ans: My understanding of Shri. Illango's LOGIC behind 5Hi- Lo EMA is that they are LEAD INDICATORS
Meaning --> Look @ DIRECTION OF PRICE, if price falls from ABOVE Hi-EMA & then CLOSES BELOW it, H-EMA is saying BOSS , UP TREND MAY BE OVER
similarly,
if price Rises from BELOW Lo-EMA & then CLOSES ABOVE it, Lo-EMA is saying BOSS , DOWN TREND MAY BE OVER
We shud now use 34EMA,30mins to Re-CONFIRM this HINT being received from HrlyHi-EMA
So the logic I follow is :-
1. If prices falls from above Hi-EMA & closes below HrHi-EMA, pls check @ 34EMA , 30 mins. Once price BREAKS DOWN BELOW 34EMA , 30mins GO SHORT
&
2. If prices RISES from Below Lo-EMA & closes ABOVE HrLo-EMA, pls check @ 34EMA , 30 mins. Once price BREAKS-OUT ABOVE 34EMA , 30mins GO LONG
TSL in all trades is 21EMA, 5mins
And if price closes below DHEMA , the trade MORPHS into a SWING TRADE & then u carry it to the next day & so on to PROSPERITY !
MOOT Q1: DOES THIS PROPOSAL BETTER THE PROBABILITY OF ENTRY ??
was thinking of using 34/89 EMA x-over on 30mins T/f, but that would be an OVER KILL , like using a BOFORS HOWRITZER to bring down 1 one Terrorist, MORE CERTAINITY OF TREND CHANGE , BUT LATE, SLOWER ENTRY :-)
MOOT Q2: EVEN MORE IMPORTANT, i wish to ask u why the 5hi-Lo EMA system works ?
What made u choose 5? Why not any number like say 8,13,21, 34 ??
MOOT Q3 : Will different numbers work BETTER @ different T/fs ??
What if we tried 5hi-Lo for Daily, 3 for Hrly, 8 for Weekly & say 13 for MONTHLY ?? is there ANY BASE OF MATHS TO THIS CHOICE sir ??
>>
cheers
SMO
Dear Ilango Sir & blogmates,
-----------------
THIS IS A TESTIMONIAL
------------------
Sir as you know, I have folliwed the JNSAR method as preached by you for last 8 months now and silently follow the block everyday and comment rarely
I am writin this comment for a lot of discussions happening because of discretionarY trAding
I hope most of ppl here know the difference between discrition and trend based trading
Sir a lot of "noise" happens sometime on the blog because of "views" and discretion of ppl.
Lemme clarify - I am not against ppl having views....or against discretionary traders(although statistics say they blow up more rapidly)
But I am against noise- most times while following ur method and trending with markets....during high volatility period....and swift moves....people come to the blog/flock to it....for seeig ur response and explanation if some changes needed to be done
but due to all thee unavoidable/tempting "noise"....the most disiplined ppl also begin to question their position
One example is yesterday although day.jnsar wasnt breached but due to excessive noise...doubt develops( thankfully i didnt suffer whipsaws...as i hav learnt my lessons)
My apologies if anyone got offended here with above write up
And master with all the wisdom , experience and patience you know that THE MOST ATTENTION GRABBING KIDS IN CLASS ARE RARELY THE ONES WHO ARE MOST DEDICATION.....AND THERE ACTIVITIES MIGHT BE HAMPERING THOSE WHO ARE DEDICATED,PATIENT AND DISCIPLINED
Regards
Discipline
bahut bade bade comment aa rahe hai.....
* follow the BLOG
* are most DEDICATED
seems like NS may be in process of forming right shoulder of HnS pattern in 5 mins which started yesterday at 5185 and left shoulder completed at 5190. so should rise to around 5250 before falling back to test the neckline at 5210 approx. If neckline broken in the fall then target 5125
~this is only an observation and i myself am not taking trade on this basis
4th attempt ot break rising channel on. if succeeds then reverse flag invalidated.
ns is very near toupper BB in 5 min charts and also
near 1030mema ..
Trading above 21Hr sma @ 5225.
NF Crossed the Open High ... Bullishnes for another 40 - 50 odd points
@Aly, I am seeing a rounding bottom if we look at 5 minute chart on google for last three days and cetre point is on 26th near close which is at 5174.
still days gap has not been closed
Now I can say
Good Morning Master and copy to All
struck due to TT problem
"5239" 55DEma is still not breached.
hahah... looks like discipline focus took offence to the Obsvs :-)
Bhai --> If ur getting confused, Pls ignore the post & continue as per the ESTABLISHED & POLISHED JN SYSTEM, esp as ur doing so well,
U say , No offense , but the whole post is written with eyes closed regd the MAIN Q
WHY DOES THE 5Hi-LO SYSTEM WORK ??
IS THERE A MATHS , A LOGIC , A HAND OF GOD, BEHIND IT ??
Think bout it , & free ur mind :-)
cheers
SMO
@ Raj
agree that may be a possibility.
@ Raj,
will a break of 5200 invalidate the rounding bottom formation?
5235 resisted [ also the pivot point ]
looks like upper channel will provide now support
if ns could not break abv 5243 fast fall set up will emerge
in 70 and 1030ena charts
5237-5245 is a 61% & 78% retrecement of current fall
Dinesh Rishi said...
Now I can say
Good Morning Master and copy to All
struck due to TT problem
Or were u busy scaring the bears away?
@Aly, I think so. we can give addinal 5 points to say 5195 at best.
fast fall possible if not moved abov 5255 aprox.
tata steel n LT r making new highs intraday every time i look at the screen
@shriram,
as far as i know, 5 system works because a lot of people follow it. Any technical system is influencde by human behaviuor. infact behavirol science is behind any technical system hence any system, which has backing of people having significant amount of money (Please note it is not a lot of ppl with some money but a small group of ppl having lot of money) will generally succeed. There are many people who religiuosly follow 5 hi-lo system. similarily lot of people follow fibonacci systems. It is just that at any point of time any system which has maximum amount of money (again not people but money) backing it wins
@ Shriram,
It is a coincidence that "discipline focus" comment appeared below yours.
His intention is quite clear:
A trend based trading works well in the long run.(Most mechanical ones work on this basis including the ones you are explaining painstakingly everyday)
A discretionary trading(opinionated trades) often takes the trader down if "breaks are not applied in time".
Though the right thing to do would be to follow "one's own method", readers somehow get distracted.
His request is to "stay focus in a disciplined way".
Supported at flag's uppper side which was at 5225 at that time. now crossingof 5236 is must for upmove to resume
Good News
Got an update on Vishal Seth. He was operated and his tumor has been cured. He is restoring back and under observation in ICU.
Ameen :)
Thank God
could not cross convingly 5236..Now may again test the upper channed support which is now 5227-28.This could be stoploss
a stock is < d-5l-ema and one goes short.
how to judge/decide/guess that price will
not breach > d-5l-ema.
what parameters/oscillators to be viewed.
Illango ji,
Accept ur advice w.o question
Remembering my old self till a few months ago, I am a v good SPECIMAN eg of a "Frivolous trader" . Made many mistakes, by "clinging" onto wrong Lables
That is why the NEW FOUND LOVE / OVER-ZELOUS ITCH, TO NOW IMPROVE & STICK TO BEING SYSTEMATIC !
I fully understand & respect, what you say :-)
urs
@Shriram.....
Can you explain Step by Step What your system is for backbenchers
like me...??
Thanks in advance.
Last fall from 5278 to 5202 has retracements @
50.0%:5240
61.8%:5249
73.6%:5258
80% is @ 5263 which is the "reversal confirmation" and coincides with 34 Hr sma.
Sir - thank you very much.
PT - thanks for the good news. Wishing him for a speedy recovery.
LV sir - hv u seen "autograph" programme in Jaya TV yesterday night?? participant is "cho Ramaswamy" :)
@shriram
plz explain with charts if possible..will look up
at ur blog..keep up good work...
Ilango sir..can conservatives also take this 5263 as reversal confirmation??
thx
Once again-
1)not against questions
2) not against fun comments
3)Not against learning
4) Not against sharing
But
1) against views and noise ( example- "since Hr.low ema was breached at 4985 , i feel nifty will make a new low of 4950)
Since direct tips/forecast are banned here these indirect tips(views/noise) come...and if prices do reach that level these views become calls like .for abv example if nifty rraches 4950 " my TARGET of 4950 achieved" ...but if they dont...."they were just views" - if smone wants to xpress ther own view OPEN YOUR OWN BLOG AND PUBLISH. As when one open the comments section too.see masters comment therr is way too much unavoidable noise one has to filter
2) against blaberring and too much attention grabbing questioning......as they are again unavoidable.....creates confusion and develop one thing that master has pleaded to avoid "DOUBT"
Sriram bro....i startd writing the abov commnts before u had published your "question" before me..as i use my a android ..it taks time to write and/typos...it wznt a take on u
It was meant for master..whom i know....wud hav got it and seen my point........and ppl who identify with above tarits
Regards
Is it another triangle in 2min charts?
Yaar Ye Traingle's ab Bermuda Triangle and Mad Angles Bante ja rahe hain
@ Aly:
Thanks for the explanation, does it means that TOMO, if the BIG BOYZ decide to Follow say a 10Hi-Lo SYSTEM, then this one will have to eb Re-TUNED ?
@ SAM : Nothing gr8 , just a fine -tuning of Illango ji's OBSVS
For swing trade :
For LONGS:wait for 2 conditions to be satisfied ,
C1: CLOSE > 5DLEMA , C2: 5-10DEMA BULL X-over
(ulta for SHORTS)
EXIT: Change in slope of 5DEMA
For Ultra Small T/f :
ENTER: When price Breaks out ABOVE / BREAKS DOWN BELOW 34EMA, 30mins, SL @ initiation 15 pts
EXIT: Either @ Pivot Supports or TSL as 21EMA, 5mins
Have used this ONLY ON NIFTY. Dunno how it applies to other scrips / commodities
NO SYSTEM IS 100% , BUT STICKING TO ONE GUIDING LIGHT DEFINITELY HELPS!
See if this makes sense
cheers
SMO
@ Bizagra,
All the falls have restricted below 76% retracement.
Hence, a 80% retrace would indicate strength and hence a conservative trader could use that to initiate a trade and must have a SL for those trades as the trades are initiated within the channel of corrections.
Ilango Sir,
Going by your 2 min. chart observation yesterday, can we
assume that 5247 is a temp extreme as of now?
I totally agree with Discipline focus.
I come to this blog to hear a sober unbiased commentary
on nifty based on long experiences of seniors so that i can fine tune my understanding of market.
but most of the times i find it like a fish market. I feel like i m watching same old TV channel which i have abandoned watching long ago.
@Nimishbhai,
Triangles are now very confusing at this stage. dono
tarafse sl baja rahe hain.
From the highs of 5236.45 to 5215.9 the 1st dn wave opened with 5-sub-waves and followed it up with an irregular 2nd wave (made a low of 5214.1/5213.35 in its 2.b). Now the 3rd wave dn should open dn.
This is for you to understand EW. See if you can spot them in google 2min chart.
@ Sujatha
As I generally do not view TV I missed it. Sad.
My extra time is spent in reading and listening music.
LV
@D.Focus ... way to go ! thanks :-)
thankfully market is not TRENDING TODAY..
giving lots of time for free-wheeling discussions ;-D
Positionally how many are still playing on the long side until next series?? pls reply friends
Thanks Shriram :)
Many would go to a "Quiet place" to meditate.
But the right way is to meditate wherever you are, even in a market place. That is going "inside" which does not require shutting down the world.
Think about it.
Yes, precisely that is what I am doing now.
LV
Fire Posted... USDINR chart
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-8I9pvHUr6jQ/T3KqyKU_wPI/AAAAAAAAAps/twsYCPFv680/w1000/usd-inr%2Bew%2B280312.jpg
@ Shriram
yes that is my understanding
remember as i said earlier, technical trading is very much function of behavirol science. also the market participants are human beings like us (apart from algo trading computers which also work on inputs fed by human beings). it just that at any point of time, people may switch sides and that is what is going to influence market behaviuor at that particular time. it always the people with large amount of money and conviction who change the direction / influence the market. but at the ened they also follow some system be it 5 hi-low, fibbonaci (btw 5 is also a fibbonaci number so is 8, 13, 21, 34, 55). Fibonaaci priciples were being applied to market very early and those systems have continued till date because its like a feedback loop. more people take action at fibonacci numbers, more the market is influenced at those levels and agan more people get attracted to those numbers as they see the impact of the numbers
ns at intraday channel supp
small bounce can be expected
Agree with you Sir.
master ji: neenga engeyo ( enge poganumo )poittu irukkingae!
inspiring us all through the day !!
thx..
Dear Immortal... JNSAR traders are still short...
Ilango sir..i think now the 2nd wave going on...??wht u say??
thx
New Post Done.
As per NF 5 min chart, it appears 5100<5200>5300
ns is trading in upsloping chanell but 200ma in 5 min
charts is sloping downwards
manytimes have seen that this becomes a setup for a
fast fall
no rules just small observation
Hello Everybudy ,
Please if anyone who can tell me what is theoretical
concept behind jnsar. i want to take trade in stocks
based on jnsar.
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