Nifty followed up the ED pattern with another big down day & set for a weekly reversal.

AimNifty said...
@VK Soni,
 My expiry number is 5915
1. Daily - S2 support level. also CAM L5+10
2. I expect nifty to reach CAM L5 in last hour and end the series nearby.
July 25, 2013 at 10:00 AM.
Congratulations for the "Disciplined following" when most looked for a "bounce".
Congratulations for "calling it @ 10.00AM" in the morning itself.
Congratulations for congratulating "Sahil" who came a close 2nd.
Congratulations to all those who called the "lower numbers" believing in the "Just reversed trend".
Congratulations to VK Soni for conducting the contest giving his valuable time.
There are lessons to be learnt from the participation of so many minds, application of experience.

Nifty retraces a smaller move of 6056 to 6112 in faster time, next being "6008".

Nifty sold off on "News" @ 5171-84 zone, would seek support at earlier resistances of 4976-5020.

Nifty's ending diagonal(Falling wedge) ended the corrective phase with an assertive reversal.

The reversal rally has closed below 20sma after getting resisted @ 50Sma. A firm opening above 50sma would sail it towards the channel resistance.

"5310" is April month pivot and 5246 is next week's pivot and these would play critical roles into the truncated week ahead.

Earlier 5268 low when Nifty fell from 5630 would also play a support.

Nifty signalling a weekly up momentum.

The ending diagonal(green) has bigger rally potential while the corrective up(Red) likely to lose momentum around 5300-25. It gets negated above 5330.

JustNifty TA (17th Oct)

Nifty PreMarket View

The slowness in the current fall which is contrary to a "swift vth wave" compels us to look for other alternatives and we found an "ending diagonal in vth wave".
It means each fall will be lesser than the previous one and each rise too smaller than the previous one with the channel lines converging/ narrowing into a smaller range and finally the break-out of this narrowing channel top.
If we assume that the ending diagonal started @ 5168, then the first part of the fall ended @ 4758(410 points) & then a rise to 5034(276 points-67%) and now this latest fall should not be more than 410 points(5034-410=4624) and preferably 80% of the previous fall which is (5034-328=4706). Once this fall is over, if not done already, a 61.8% to 80% of retracing upmove will unfold.

In sum: Below 4624 deeper falls; Around 4706, it could reverse and move up by 200-250 points. Watch the last channel drawn for the fall from 5034-4728.

Oversold Hour with +ve divergences too favour such a possibility.

If you find it all "too much to digest", Stay with JNSAR as even if you miss the bottoms & tops, you'll still be left with a sizeable "Chunk of the body".