Nifty ends at another (last) channel resistance..

Prices have shown bullishness by closing above both 20sma & 200sma for two consecutive days. Two days of intra corrections have happened. Lagging indicator-macd is in buy mode while the leading indicator-Stochastics is in OB zone, though they can remain there for long time too. 5135-5160 is the next strong resistance and then 5200.
Today's high touched the last channel resistance - anything beyond 5100 will be a clear breakout.
Below chart was drawn 5 days ago. If it continues to follow it, Nifty should consolidate in 5165 to 4985 zone. The last rise from 4675 to 5400 has not been retraced in faster time, suggesting the fall to be of corrective kind.

No weakness in the tech. table, except that the monthly has closed for the first time below 5-ema which will bring the bulls out to defend it.
Monthly price charts present some bullish possibilities provided Nifty stays above 4935-4965.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

@ Sumitabh,
The circled areas are the "Price clusters". Keeping note of these help in analysing price strengths & weaknesses. A larger time period, say 12-18 months of hour chart would provide more "potential clusters".
@ golfdude,
Congratulations to you on your new blog. I will prepare a S&P file and send it to you. Even with limited data, your table has given some good trades.

If you are bullish inclined, you may buy @ 4985-5005 and hold it with a SL 4945.
As there is no clear pattern or EW completion, trading the levels would be preferred.

Few queries and weekend Analysis with AarVee.

Reader 1:

I buy when Hrly 5 ema cross & close above daily 5ema , & sell when 5 hrly ema close bellow 5 daily ema. Just reversing position as per system.Three questions i have in my mind hope i will get clarifications :

1. Will this one a good trading sytem ?
I have never looked at it this way but from the fact it is based, it is obvious that if 5 hour ema moves above 5 day ema, it has to be strength. Now the most important question is: Is it tradeable..? How much lag in time it leaves you and how far away from the bottom or top it generates a buy/ sell. Have you back tested over a period of ...2 years.

2. When should I book profit or I have to do partial profit booking?
When the larger trend is still in force but the short term is "Overbought with negative divergence", it is time to do partial profit booking. Full booking may be done when the larger trend is overbought with negative divergence and your system suggests you to initiate a SELL.

3. Any other term (indicator) I have to consider or add into it? I think i have to consider two terms Like trend Line(channel) & divergence.or just that ema will work(need not to consider other things)?
That is "three questions in one"... I have a system that incorporates Macd-fast & slow, stochastics-5 & 14 periods, Pivot points showing critical highs and lows, Channeling, Tech. table with three important emas - close, high & low to show the trend and its strength & weaknesses as well as their momentum and finally Elliott wave analysis - a labeling system which maps out the price advancement and retracements and reversals in an orderly way. I have summarised these and presented it in "Technical analysis" under "LABELS" in my blog.

4. One more doubt gap up & gap down???? if it is opposite of our position??? How to tackle this?

When ever market is trending up, the gap downs upto close ema or low ema may be used to enter into long trades. "ORB" too helps in this method. Similarly, in a downtrending markets, the gap ups provide excellent opportunity to sell orders. This is not a rule but it works most of the time.
Reader-2:
5. I wanted to do Intraday trading alone. I look into MACD first to check whether its bullish or bearish in a Daily Chart, Next I confirm with Stochastics and RSI. After in Intraday, I check in Hourly chart for Oversold and overbought using RSI and next i enter trade in 5 minute chart but manytime i enter trend is reversing , I cannot find perfect entry point always there are any problems. Sir, Hope you will guide me How I can do good trading with some strategy.
In a trending market, buy into "every 3 wave declines/ retracements" for better entry & hold.
Once the trend shows fatigue with "overbought readings", study the price chart, especially the hour chart for "Price clusters" to understand the likely supports and resistances and position yourself to trade the ranges.
Never trade based on indicators as they only indicate the likely direction but can reverse suddenly too. By studying the "price clusters", you will be able to trade with ease. Try this - you will find amazing results. And when you do, keep your feet firmly on the ground and head down with emotions under check and stay away from market men. Emotions can easily unsettle all that you have built..
Trading is just like any other business - more the secrecy, more the success.

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Aarvee's Analysis:

I am taking some time off from active blogging due to family and work commitments. This journey has been truly a great learning and evolving experience under your guidance and cooperation from friends. My sincere Thanks.

I am posting few Charts that are throwing some Answers(part-1) and asking some Questions(part-2) at this crossroads where both the Bullish and Bearish side can be argued with equal conviction.While I can have my perceptions and be biased, the Charts have none. It will be helpful to follow these Charts and keep them handy for trading in near future.

With Regards

AAR VEE

Dear Aar Vee,
Solitude/ seclusion brings out the best creative energy. Take care of your other commitments, dear aar vee and when you find some interesting observations to share with us, the doors are always open and don't take too long.

A story that can change your life

In 1972, Jim Cathcart was working at the Little Rock, Arkansas Housing Authority, making $525 a month, with a new wife and baby at home, no college degree, no past successes, and not much hope for the foreseeable future.

One morning, he was sitting in his office listening to the radio, to a program called "Our Changing World" by Earl Nightingale, who was known as "the Dean of Personal Motivation." That day, Nightingale, in his booming voice, said something that would change Jim's life forever: "If you will spend an extra hour each day in study of your chosen field, you will be a national expert in that field in five years or less."

Jim was stunned, but the more he thought about it the more it made sense. Although he had never given a speech, he had always wanted to help people grow in areas of personal development and motivation. He began his quest to put Nightingale's theory to the test by reading books and listening to tapes whenever he could. He also started exercising, became better organized, and joined a self-improvement study group. He persisted through weeks of temptations to quit, just by doing a little more each day to further his goal. Within six months he had learned more than he had in his few years of college, and he began to believe he could turn his goal of becoming a motivational speaker into reality. All the hard work, the discipline, and study paid off. Jim now has delivered more than 2,500 speeches worldwide and has won every major award in the speaking industry.

Just like companies have market value, so do people. In the simplest terms, your market value increases by knowing and doing more. Knowledge is power, not only for your career, but also to improve your family and spiritual life. I once heard a quote that sums it up well, "Knowledge is like climbing a mountain; the higher you reach the more you can see and appreciate."

I love stories because for me, they can bring an idea to life.

By Mac Anderson. Founder, Simple Truths.

The injured becoming inspirational to many..

Molly is a grey speckled pony who 
was abandoned by her owners when Hurricane
 Katrina hit southern Louisiana . She spent weeks
 on her own before finally being rescued and taken 
to a farm where abandoned animals were stockpiled.

While there, Molly was attacked by a pit bull terrier
 and almost died. Her gnawed right front leg became 
infected, and her vet went to LSU for help, but 
LSU was overwhelmed, and this pony was a welfare 
case. You know how that goes.



But after surgeon Rustin Moore met Molly, he 
changed his mind. He saw how the pony was
 careful to lie down on different sides so she didn't 
seem to get sores, and how she allowed people to 
handle her.

She protected her injured leg. She 
constantly shifted her weight and didn't overload 
her good leg. She was a smart pony with a serious 
survival ethic.



Moore agreed to remove her leg below the knee,
 and a temporary artificial limb was built. Molly
 walked out of the clinic and her story really 
begins there.

Nifty's sharp reversal has not changed the weekly down trend.

Dear Mynac,
Your absence was felt by all. I am aware from RG's & Mok's comments that you are grieving a personal tragedy. If it'll make it any lighter, we want you to know that our prayers are with you to sail through this lonely patch in your life. May you have all the strength to carry your family along.
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Inspite of a 300 point rise, Nifty could not close above 5-wk sma. But just squeezed into the rising channel - Can it keep up with the rising channel in the coming weeks..?
Nifty managed to close above this falling "Daily channel" suggesting upside possibility. The next pivot high of 5105 coincides with the "Monthly ema" and Monday is the monthly close - Can it close above that after failing the weekly close (Closed below 5077)..??
Nifty , in the past, risen sharply (once from 3900 & another from 4500) - But this time the higher time frame TA is down and a crucial monthly close is awaited on Monday.
Daily is firmly UP. Weekly down has been "paused" with a close above weekly low ema but not turned up. "5105 & 5170" are the two major resistances.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

The channel top comes @ 5050 to 5070 area. "5082" is last week's ema and "5105" is the next pivot high as well as Last month's ema.
However, Hour would get "oversold & triggered" by 10.00AM. But with strong daily momentum, the corrections would be mild. The earlier "Strong resistances of "5015-5020" may offer supports (assuming here a gap up above this).
One needs to believe the numbers that appear in the Tech.Table and take action "no matter what the sentiment suggests" at that time. Those clamoring for "mechanical system" may have found something to latch on to. A toe in the water so to speak - take such "baby steps" with small positions to boost your confidence.
One of the "great utility value" of this Tech. table is when TA turns up or down, it shows the various points the market is likely to conquer or break and thereby set yourself some targets to meet and facilitate "part bookings" along the way.

Nifty confirms a larger rally & captures 200 sma.

It could pause around 5050, the channel resistance and consolidate. Moving past 5029 will set up the first Higher high. Looking @ Bank Nifty, a consolidation may be in store in 5050 to 4950. Will fine tune it further.
Based on short term TA, I have opted for this labeling, though Nifty is yet to break out of the channel.
26th May confirmed a short term reversal with a close above both DL ema & Dema and by closing above the DHema today, the momentum is with the bulls. Holding 4940 tomorrow would give the "pause for the fall" in the weekly time scale too. A close above 5082 tomorrow would be asking too much from the bulls who may look tired in the morning.

Breadth indicator shows an "advance break out of the channel" - Bullish.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

At 1.05PM: Nifty sold off at "4968" target which has coincided with "Day High ema" + .
Watch supports @ 4940 zone..

Nifty Intraday update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

As per the table, Daily trend has turned UP mildly. Look for buying in the dips @ either 4885 or 4865 or inbetween(4872-Low ema) with a SL @ 4845. Resistances are explained by "aar vee" in the comments(4945-4965) and if it surpasses, it could go all the way sharply to 5000+.
As long as it trades below 4915, downward pressure will be on...
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VIX based range for the day is "4835 - 5000". (My critic is betting on the lower side in the first half based on 5-minute -ve div..& he feels the bottom may be in already for the first part of the down leg).

"Mok" has sent the following MP profile chart showing the support band where buying should emerge, failing which downtrend will resume. Holding the support band, the short term uptrend should continue. "Shai" of "VTrender" too has a target of "closer to 5000" for this settlement day based on MP profile, VIX-volatility & Open Interest data interpretations.

Satyam sit of "Niftydimystified"(In our blog list) has shown this chart with a likely top for this short term reversal to 5022. He has a convincing calculation for the lows that have been made so far.
Different methods, different approach and it points UP....
now what the market has to say..??

Nifty takes a baby step for the short term reversal...

If we apply the pull back quantitative analysis as we did earlier, then
4786 + 182 = 4968 (1st target)
4786 + 226 = 5012 (2nd target)
Anything beyond 5012 should alert us to a larger pull back as the "Short term bullish scenario" shown in the 2nd chart.

This chart suggests of the first wave down ending as a "leading diagonal" with overlapping five waves and Nifty may have started on the 2nd wave(Corrective up) having few retracements possibilities:
5400 to 4786 = 614 points. 38% @ 5019; 50% @ 5093 ; 61.8% @ 5166.
This view would also harmonize with the "OS" daily as well as weekly TA.
A stay above 4873 and a weekly close above 4940 is all "Bulls should hope for(28th May)". And a monthly close below 4855 is what the "Bears should aim for(31st May)".

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

Thank you ShivaPrasad (The Critic) for the Profit booking alert -
That is "market sense".
And Kudos to Sujatha, Sethu for that contrarian call & to Ankhurbbhatt's +ve div.
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Trend continues to remain down with a short term reversal - the quality of which will decide its longevity.
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Thank you Manoj (Tryin2Trade) for the following link (www.thestreet.com)
One of the questions we get each correction is whether or not traders/investors should try to pick market bottoms. The background music is an orchestra of bottom callers, the vast majority of who are, shall we say, premature. Eventually someone gets it right, but I never have been convinced it wasn't a function of random luck.
For the vast majority of market participants, however, this guessing game tends to be rather expensive.
The good news is that it can be done. There are, on occasion, situations where all of the technical and sentiment indicators align "just so." When all the stars and planets line up, it may be worth taking a high-probability stab at that with a little money (a toe in the water so to speak).
The bad news is this is exceedingly difficult. The ideal conditions and circumstances for bottom picking are rare, and the tools necessary to do so are even rarer. Most traders and investors do not have:

• the requisite skill to identify these circumstances;
• the obligatory patience to wait for these conditions;
• or the compulsory discipline to cut losses when the trades don't work out.

Rather than tell you if it is safe here or not, let's consider a different strategy.

Consider the following chart (it's either a market or stock). Each of the red circles is a potential bottom where you could have caught the proverbial falling knife:

Had you bought this at what looked like any of these bottoms, you would have suffered significant losses.

From a risk/reward standpoint, there are much higher-probability trades/investments to make, with lower risk. This balance leads to better overall returns.

Now consider the same company as above, only with the chart extended a little further in time. It reveals two much better entry points than the bottom guesses. The first is when the downtrend was broken, and another entry when the horizontal resistance was overcome.

You would have been much better served buying this stock (or market) when the relentless, multi year downtrend broke (circle 1) than trying to repeatedly guess the bottom. The next advantageous strategy would be to add to the position -- average up -- after the horizontal resistance is broken (circle 2).

The bottom line: Most investors do not have the tools to play this bottom-guessing game. They lack the ability to wait for lows, and they lack the skill set to see the bottom when it's there. Too few employ stop losses or risk management. Worst of all, even when they do, they lack the discipline to follow their own rules.

Might today be the bottom? My best guess is that we are getting nearer a tradeable low -- the oversold point where a rally can run a few days to a few weeks. But my instinct is that we are nowhere near the 2008/2009 recession bottom. But why guess? Why not wait until the downtrend is decisively broken?

Nifty - 4675 - last Major Pivot is under threat by the Bears.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

After having spent more than an hour @ 4826-4855, NF breaks out with volume (5-minute time cycle).. The spike failed as it fell below 4833.(the low of the bull candle).
The failed Spike: