Monday, August 31, 2009

Nifty corrects from "OB" & -ve div. set up..

Short term weakness leading Nifty below 5 avg. Likely supports are @ 4565-4585 zone. Time correction also required for upmove to continue. If trades in the range of 4565/4585 to 4695/4725, it will fulfill the time aspect. Break below 4550(Channel support) would lead to deeper corrections. So trade this range presently.
Only a close above 4710 will bring back the momentum. A close below 4600 will signal deeper correction.


Prices weakened after negative divergences. Minor channel bottom comes around 4595 - 4620 zone, breaking the same may lead to 4580-4565. Retracements for the rise from 4353 to 4743 comes @ 4595(38%) & 4548(50%). Any bounces at this stage may be upto 4676(38%), 4689(50%), 4701(61.82%).

Nifty-Premarket view.

Looking at the world markets, a certain gap down which will confirm the negative divergences affecting the prices..Break of 4690-4700 would lead to a break of 4650(third time this level may not hold) and further below 4635-4580 or 4560.The time taken for this correction will give us clues to the nature of this correction...shallow to 4560-4580 or deeper to 4400 or below.

World markets - an overall view.

Overbought in the short term. breaking certain critical levels will put an end to this spectacular bear market rally.
Holding the same critical levels, this rally can still surprise many.






Saturday, August 29, 2009

Few coins here...few there - a vital part of Life..

The pickle jar as far back as I can remember sat on the floor beside the dresser in my parents' bedroom. When he got ready for bed, Dad would empty his pockets and toss his coins into the jar. As a small boy I was always fascinated at the sounds the coins made as they were dropped into the jar. They landed with a merry jingle when the jar was almost empty. Then the tones gradually muted to a dull thud as the jar was filled. I used to squat on the floor in front of the jar and admire the copper and silver circles that glinted like a pirate's treasure when the sun poured through the bedroom window. When the jar was filled, Dad would sit at the kitchen table and roll the coins before taking them to the bank. Taking the coins to the bank was always a big production. Stacked neatly in a small cardboard box, the coins were placed between Dad and me on the seat of his old truck.

Each and every time, as we drove to the bank, Dad would look at me hopefully. "Those coins are going to keep you out of the textile mill, son. You're going to do better than me. This old mill town's not going to hold you back."

Also, each and every time, as he slid the box of rolled coins across the counter at the bank toward the cashier, he would grin proudly. "These are for my son's college fund. He'll never work at the mill all his life like me."

We would always celebrate each deposit by stopping for an ice cream cone. I always got chocolate. Dad always got vanilla. When the clerk at the ice cream parlor handed Dad his change, he would show me the few coins nestled in his palm. "When we get home, we'll start filling the jar again." He always let me drop the first coins into the empty jar. As they rattled around with a brief, happy jingle, we grinned at each other. "You'll get to college on pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters," he said. "But you'll get there. I'll see to that."

The years passed, and I finished college and took a job in another town. Once, while visiting my parents, I used the phone in their bedroom, and noticed that the pickle jar was gone. It had served its purpose and had been removed.

A lump rose in my throat as I stared at the spot beside the dresser where the jar had always stood. My dad was a man of few words, and never lectured me on the values of determination, perseverance, and faith. The pickle jar had taught me all these virtues far more eloquently than the most flowery of words could have done. When I married, I told my wife Susan about the significant part the lowly pickle jar had played in my life as a boy. In my mind, it defined, more than anything else, how much my dad had loved me.

No matter how rough things got at home, Dad continued to doggedly drop his coins into the jar. Even the summer when Dad got laid off from the mill, and Mama had to serve dried beans several times a week, not a single dime was taken from the jar. To the contrary, as Dad looked across the table at me, pouring catsup over my beans to make them more palatable, he became more determined than ever to make a way out for me..

"When you finish college, Son," he told me, his eyes glistening, "You'll never have to eat beans again...unless you want to."

The first Christmas after our daughter Jessica was born, we spent the holiday with my parents. After dinner, Mom and Dad sat next to each other on the sofa, taking turns cuddling their first grandchild. Jessica began to whimper softly, and Susan took her from Dad's arms. "She probably needs to be changed," she said, carrying the baby into my parents' bedroom to diaper her. When Susan came back into the living room, there was a strange mist in her eyes.

She handed Jessica back to Dad before taking my hand and leading me into the room. "Look," she said softly, her eyes directing me to a spot on the floor beside the dresser. To my amazement, there, as if it had never been removed, stood the old pickle jar, the bottom already covered with coins. I walked over to the pickle jar, dug down into my pocket, and pulled out a fistful of coins. With a gamut of emotions choking me, I dropped the coins into the jar. I looked up and saw that Dad, carrying Jessica, had slipped quietly into the room. Our eyes locked, and I knew he was feeling the same emotions I felt. Neither one of us could speak.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Nifty breaks out with -ve div in tow...

Though prices have closed at the highest point for this uptrend, oscillators are showing weakness underneath. Nifty can continue its uptrend inspite of this weakness for another week or two. Whenever Nifty closes below 5 week average will be the confirmation for holding shorts. Until then trade the short swings or hold long positions..

Weakness only when trades below "Day High ema" which might rise to 4690-4700 for Monday.

It has stopped at the resistance of 4640. Any further upmove will suggest of a completion of running corrections and much higher levels. If not some consolidations in the coming days before moving higher. Though Nifty cleared the previous high of 4727, Sensex is still not cleared its previous high of "16002".
Based on the world market's view, the options will play out..


This negative div. if not negated with a strong upmove can correct towards 4650-4580 and still keeping the uptrend.

Nifty-Intra update

3.15 PM: Any intra shorts may be closed..

2.30PM:-4740 Resistance reached and reacting....Moving past 4750 will confirm this uptrend.


Nifty attempted to stay above 4700 thrice and has been sold off..Minor support @ 4650 below which 4635. Still it is a range trading market.
Sell level @ 4715-4740 came in the morning.And the support levels are approaching now for the day..
"IT Index" which has run up in a big way the last three days has shown distinct weakness since morning is dragging Nifty down..

Nifty-Premarket View

As very short term is "OB"(Overbought) and with negative divergences, I would prefer to initiate the shorts around 4715-4740 with a stop & reverse @ 4755.A correction is due lasting a few days upto 4550...
4670 is a critical level, break of which 4650 which has offered critical supports on two days will be the next key level.
Trade these points by merging the intra day technicals.

Trend remains up though it looks a bit stretched.
In summary, <4650 - 4750> are the key levels.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Nifty continues its narrow trading ways...

Nifty looks quite "OB" in the very short term. If it can correct from 4740 and keep the 4550 supports, another uptrend will gather strength. This is one possibility discussed here. Markets could decide to do otherwise too..keep getting higher. Daily close below 4650 will be the first sign of weakness.
Closing above "4635" on Friday will keep the momentum into next week. Very short term looks "OB" with some negative div. New settlement will start as per world cues and $ strength & weakness..

Holding "4650", Nifty could go higher inspite of -ve div.. Below 4650, it may fall to 4635, 4580.

Nifty-Premarket view




Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Nifty shying @ 4700

Nifty-Trade update

At 2.45 PM: Stopped out @ 4680 NF(Long @ 4668)

At 2.02 PM: SL for Longs now @ 4680 NF for the day.

At 10.50AM: S&R for Longs now @ 4635 NF

Holding Longs of 4668

S&R for Longs raised to 4670 NF

Nifty-Premarket View.

Nifty Future is expected to be in a range of 4630/4635 to 4680 in the early part of the trading and a move in either direction will determine the very short term trend change. 4560-4585-4600 are the supports. 4695-4730 is the resistance zone.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Nifty corrects intra, inches up..

Intra corrections & closing near the day's high, trending up above short term averages and poised to clear the previous highs @ 4727....Bulls are quite active. Beaten down stocks are seeing some short covering too and Reliance is poised to break out..
Bulls held the low emas well but could not close above Hour high ema at close..That is short term weakness only..Staying above 4600 is vital..

The only concern for the "Bulls" is the minor negative divergences appearing in the 5-minute charts. If corrects upto 4565-4585 again, it can gather some strength & move up. However, if the "Shorts" are more and Nifty trading closer to the settlement high can unsettle the bears......

Nifty - Intra update.

At 2.30 PM:- Bought @ 4668 NF ..Only SL 4650 NF

At 2.06 PM:- S & R Revised to @ 4668 NF


At 1.02PM: SOLD @ 4670
. S & R @ 4674 NF

There is a possible 5 wave completion here.The last vertical spike is typical of a 5th up.
It can make another high before falling. In such case , SELL after clearing the high with small SL.

If the highs are already done with, then sell at the break of 4645 NF.

Nifty-Trade Close

Closed the shorts @ 4640 & Long @ 4645, when the day's high cleared.
TARGET: 4670-4675. SL @ 4628.

At 12.35 PM: Covered the longs @ 4672.

Nifty-Trade & SL changes

Conservative trade: No Changes(Remain long @ 4600 with SL @ 4525.
EW / -& + Div trade: SL down to 4675 and profit booking raised to 4565-4585.

Nifty-Premarket View

I find the immediate decisive range to be 4490 to 4655. Trade accordingly.
i.e: Buy closer to the lows & Sell closer to the highs....
US markets are close to a top. China has started to fall again. Current bullish sentiment will receive a blow if Nifty starts to fall below 4490. So place your stops below that for longs. For Shorts, it is 4675(Courtesy Balanandan of Vipani Sangeetham http://marketsmusic.blogspot.com)


Monday, August 24, 2009

Nifty breaks out above 4615...

Any pull back may be limited to 4520-4550. A fall below 4500 will be bearish.



It looks like the hour technicals are nearing "OB" area. If it makes another high, a correction is possible.
The following chart is based on an EW expert Mr.Mustaq Khair. (http://www.shareanalyst.com/newsletter.htm). I did some time analysis and it falls on 26.08.09 10.00AM for completion of "F" leg.

Nifty- a New trade


At 3.20PM:-
After reaching 4656NS, it is showing weakness due to very short term -ve divergence.
"Short" in aggressive trade is initiated at 4655NF and a SL 4705NS is in place.

Nifty-Premarket view.

12.13 PM:-"EW/ + & - ve Div Trade"..Booked profits @ 4635 NF.
Conservative SL raised to 4590NS.
*********************************************************************

11.30 AM:-"EW/ + & - ve Div Trade"..Trailing SL for longs raised to @ 4620 NF.
*********************************************************************
10.12 AM:- Bought @ 4600 in "Conservative trade", SL 4535.

"EW/ + & - ve Div Trade"..Trailing SL for longs @ 4595NF.
*********************************************************************
At 9.35AM:-Till Nifty clears 4700, the alternative scenario possibility exists. Booking longs initially during the euphoric rise.


Saturday, August 22, 2009

Build your house..!

An elderly carpenter was ready to retire. He told his employer-contractor of his plans to leave the house-building business to live a more leisurely life with his wife and enjoy his extended family. He would miss the paycheck each week, but he wanted to retire. They could get by.

The contractor was sorry to see his good worker go & asked if he could build just one more house as a personal favor. The carpenter said yes, but over time it was easy to see that his heart was not in his work. He resorted to shoddy workmanship and used inferior materials. It was an unfortunate way to end a dedicated career.


When the carpenter finished his work, his employer came to inspect the house. Then he handed the front-door key to the carpenter and said, "This is your house... my gift to you."

The carpenter was shocked!

What a shame! If he had only known he was building his own house, he would have done it all so differently.

So it is with us. We build our lives, a day at a time, often putting less than our best into the building. Then, with a shock, we realize we have to live in the house we have built. If we could do it over, we would do it much differently.

But, you cannot go back. You are the carpenter, and every day you hammer a nail, place a board, or erect a wall. Someone once said, "Life is a do-it-yourself project." Your attitude, and the choices you make today, help build the "house" you will live in tomorrow. Therefore, Build wisely!

Friday, August 21, 2009

Nifty finds 4400 a reliable support and crosses the "4500"

If a new upmove has commenced from the 3921 bottom, then the correction to that upmove is over @ 4353 and we should see new highs. If unable to move higher, then the correction may continue towards 4000. Coming weeks action holds the answer..

On the last day of the week, Nifty crossed all the hurdles and poised to move higher provided, it continues to trade above 4470-4490, the previous resistances(now a supports).

Nifty stopped @ 20DMA @ 4539. Trading above the same will propel it higher to 2 week high @ 4580 and to previous swing point @ 4615..
Reliable hour macd managed to keep above the trigger since yesterday and moved into +ve today. Other momentum indicators are reaching "OB" levels.

This rising channel formed after an elaborate correction of 4693 to 3921 has held in the last few sessions. Holding the same, nifty is poised to move higher.

Nifty- New trade

For Conservative Trade: Today's High becomes "Stop & Reverse" on Monday.


Nifty-another Island reversal at the open..

At 11.30AM update:- "Island reversal" is negated with a move past 4445. However, bearish undertone remains..

Nifty-Premarket update


Open Interest, according to my critic, is quite close to the high recorded during Nifty's 4700 will weigh heavily on the index till the settlement. Inspite of positive world mkts, Indian markets are not exhibiting strength mainly due to the huge open interest, created at higher levels.

Conservative trade remains the same.
Aggressive trade, an option to book partially profits here. the idea is to take profits as Nifty is within a range. Or one can hold the same for lower targets(4250)with SL.

I look at 4425-4430 as crucial level for the day.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Nifty Stuck between 20 & 50 Dma...

Nifty is stuck between the 20Dma(4535) and the 50 Dma(4397)..It can stay sideways too tomorrow based on world cues.. Since the fall from 4727 to 4374, it is sideways with 4353 as a low and 4614 as a high..We have been trading in the lower range for 3 days(4493 - 4353)..If moves past 4493, strength may return till 4560-4585-4615. If fails to move past 4493, lower targets soon..
Attempted to move past 4500(Day High ema @ 4509) failed...Just about managed to close above the "Hour Low ema" @ 4450.

Weak presently below 4470 and more weakness below 4428...Or are there anymore surprises..??

Nifty-Premarket-"Deceptive "b" in progress



Daily: Seem to be coming down in a channel. No candle has a body below 4380. Only if gap down below 4380 or closes below 4380, more weakness will reflect on prices.

"b" waves are generally time consuming(Note the earlier "b" during the fall from 4693 to 3921) and hence the possibility of trading in a range of 4380 to 4535 before heading lower(This will kill the option buyer..beware).

For trading for the day:- Pivot @ 4402 and a critical "4426". Above these some rally to 4470 & above 4470, to 4490 or higher(4515). Below 4402-4426, 4380-4375 should offer supports considering the "Oversold" short term.

Hourly:The channel(Blue) break out comes @ 4432 at the open and may come down a bit later. "4375" is a reasonable support.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Nifty does time correction with a minor down bias ...

Lower Highs are maintained but the lows are not breaking much..Sell on rallies continues with partial booking around 4350-4400 zone.Global cues might help.
Held the weekly low ema and attempted to move past hour high ema without success.

Hourly is quite oversold. If world cues are +ve, a small rally is possible. If -ve, break below 4353 to 4317 initially...

Nifty - a fresh trade



At 10.45AM: Booked profit on the Shorts of 18.08.09 @ 4420
And Long @ 4420.SL 4390.

At 11.40AM: SL @ 4390 triggered and Short @ 4390 with SL @ 4445

At 11.57AM: Closing the shorts @ 4370 with + 20 points & Will short @ higher levels

Aggressive can go long here for a 50 point rise...

At 12.15PM:- Shorts initiated below 4380 break and holding the same for lower target of 4250 or lower.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Nifty does the counter trend rally.

I have put two views:
A:- From 2539 to 4693.
B:- From 4693 to 3920.
C:- From 3920-4727(a); 4727- is on targetting 4250(b) and then the (c) towards higher levels.
(In this scenario, the bottom may come in a few days time. Will look out for any such signs)
O R
A:- From 2539 to 4693...No dispute here.
B:- (a) 4693 - 3920; (b) 3920-4727; (c) 4727- is on now targetting 4000..
C: From wherever "B" ends, to higher levels.
Daily & Hourly Low ema have provided the intra supports(4426) and the weekly ema the intra resistance.(4491)

After an initial sharp rally, range narrowed to 4425 - 4485.


Contraction in the range is on ., may continue as per global cues..4555 is the channel top & decreasing and 4360 the bottom..Sell into strength.

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....