Nifty, from overbought zone, broke below key retrace level-7625 to close below DLEma..

We discussed "Macd turning down in extreme point"; here, it is.

NIfty generates "noise" in Hour T/F while its all other higher T/F Technicals are intact..

As the "Title" says, this is the "Trend indicator"; Ideal long entries, especially for deliveries are when it turns up deep in the negative zone. Also, when it corrects in positive territory & comes close to "0" line and turns up. Similarly, for profit booking and selling, the reverse may be applied. And when you read it along with weekly "Macd chart", the performance improves.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Nifty, holding 5566 lows, has done an upmove to 5666, (i)/a and a corrective fall to 5580, (ii)/b and is poised to move higher in the next upmove (iii)/ c towards 5679-86 zone, the last ivth sub-wave.
If "c", it should limit itself to around 5692 and anything beyond it would make it a (iii)rd wave.
Weakness would be below the channel bottom @ 5580.
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You have stated the reasons for your stagnation - Indiscipline.
I would just add..."Get Rich Slowly and Quietly".
Follow the system you have established. It'll take care of returns. Your job is to simply obey its commands and execute and Not Think. Keep your ego out of it which brings in greed and fear.
If Arjuna who was mentored by Lord Krishna fumbled often..wavered mostly, we, mortals, should then beware of the power of our own ego in our destructions.
Part book...re-enter...part book again..n number of times..stay with SAR till the end is the only mantra to be followed.
A true karma yogi will lose himself in the fire of act. Just pay attention to the acts..objective acts..loose your "self".

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Trusting is so much essential to lead a good quality life.
In trust, love blossoms...
In trust, friendship flowers...
In trust, businesses flourish...
My son was finding it difficult to wear his newly bought contact lens...
I told him "just trust"...and soon his eyes allowed him the foreign object..
You have to let go so much to trust because you carry so much emotions and conditioning whereas a child do it instantly.
Think about it well..
Only when trust happens, "Following" is possible.

For a richer life, stay still & calm...make it your "habit"...

John D. Rockefeller had a difficult childhood. His family bounced between poverty and comfort because his father was a con-artist. The elder Rockefeller traveled the countryside of upstate New York selling patent medicine which was often simply "snake-oil." The Rockefellers didn't exactly fit in where they lived in the small New York village.
Just like most small towns, everybody knew each other. Gossip and rumor spread like wildfire. And the village scorned Rockefeller's father who they correctly thought was a snake-oil salesman. Whispers followed the family, they were excluded from social life and young John could not help but hear the vicious things the villagers said about his family.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Till the downtrend gets exhausted, no number will qualify for key support.
No anlysis is good that does not take into account the "Trend".
There are no supports during downtrend till the trend is spent and
there are no resistances during uptrend till that trend is spent.
There is only one quality a trader must possess in order to make it big..."Being still".
It requires tremendous amount of courage to be still while the trend is on. "Be Still".
The best way to have traded yesterday's market was "Sell on rises" and market gave the perfect entry @ the open at pre-mkt's resistence of 5711-18. Next clear weakness was its inability to hold above 21 Hr sma.
The final confirmation was the break of 80%.
For the day, Only a close above 5677 or 5686 would make the day trend "UP".

Nifty Pre-Market View.

If you are keen to make intraday trading, it is very important for you to assess the likely supports & resistances in a sideways/ Range bound market.
It is also important to know the likely retracing points to initiate "resell in a downtrending" market and "rebuy in an uptrending market".
Till you attain a fair degree of knowledge and discipline to apply that knowledge, you would be better off with your capital "depleted by the unforgiving market".
"Objectivity" is the term grossly underestimated & often ignored by most in relationships, work and in our case... in trading.
If you can be objective enough to follow one study, you would find adding few other studies would not pose a problem "as long as you remain objective". Only when I added Elliott study to my strategies, my understanding of the market became crystal clear. And I kept EW as an "Use & set aside" kind of study and have been using it quite meticulously whenever the need arose. This improved my understanding and application of "Technical Analysis" better.
Your experience could be different; and you must follow the one that gives you a better "strike rate".
But just becos' it hasn't worked for you, you shouldn't pass a "judgement".
Which study hasn't suggested "weakness" in the market..? It is our own opinions of "what the market should do" that keeps us from following the simple message that our studies have shown.
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DLEma/WLEma would be the critical resistances for the day.
200dsma-5614/ Earlier peak @ 5630 are key support levels.
New signal that would emerge would be "a close below or staying above WLEma" that would bring back the downward momentum or keep Nifty in a trading mode..

Meditate...the subtle, slow way to strengthen your will & sharpen your skill..!

This morning, like every morning, I sat cross-legged on a cushion on the floor, rested my hands on my knees, closed my eyes, and did nothing but breathe for 20 minutes.
People say the hardest part about meditating is finding the time to meditate. This makes sense: who these days has time to do nothing? It's hard to justify.

Meditation brings many benefits:
It refreshes us.....helps us settle into what's happening now....makes us wiser and gentler,
helps us cope in a world that overloads us with information and communication, and more.
But if you're still looking for a business case to justify spending time meditating, try this one:
Meditation makes you more productive.
How? By increasing your capacity to resist "distracting urges".

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Beginners as well as those not able to find successful trades:
Knowledge: To make consistent profits from stock market, understand the market first using a simple study such as the Basic technical analysis using Channels, Lead & lag indicators.
Belief: Having studied, have a strong belief in them that they'll produce results.
Discipline-I: With a strong belief, initiate a trade as in God's command written in scriptures.
Patience: Once a trade is initiated, sit through patiently for the price to lead you to the targets/ through the journey while having an ironclad stop loss for any "surprises".
Discipline-II: Remember to part book, once the prices start to move in "your" direction and exit the trades once SL is breached or target is reached or reversal signals are seen.
Caution: As you get closer to the market, eg: in day trading, your level of consciousness and experience need to be high as well as your ability to manage your trades. If you are not qualified enough, do not destroy your capital.
Safety: Instead, go for "Positional trades" based on either a simple TA or JNSAR. Even here, the "close basis" signals are more trustworthy.
Fear: Everyone has fear including the champions and heroes. You deal with fear, only by facing it and you can face it only if you have a strong belief system. Waving mind has no place here.
Greed: Just as fear can bury you, greed can blow you away. Hence, stay grounded by remaining "silent", part booking/ exiting without celebrations.
Holy grail: "Secrecy & Silence" are the two key ingredients for success. Do not fritter away your successes by talking about it. Let making money be your sole aim. Let you believe in your study and act only when the wind is favourable and remaining idle during all other times.
Get Rich Slowly and Quietly.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Trendlines: Read here
Follow this simple strategy in all your trading/ investing strategies and let it be part of your plan. The tendency to ignore is strong here as it is the "simplest one". But believe me, it is the foundation for the complex EW study. So skip EW if you find it complex and embrace trendlines. One should call it the "supply-demand equilibrium Line"
Trend Following: Read Here
This is the oft-repeated statement of most experts in stock market field and oft-ignored by the "hurrying-kind" who outnumbers the disciplined. Change your side soon to become a habituated winner.
How could you have applied these two basic, simple to comprehend strategies in recent times..?
State your experience if you think it will benefit others.
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Remember, the hour is in a corrective mode but the day technicals continue to remain firm.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Trading is one of the few professions where you can deal with a "faceless and no-prejudice market". It can not be manipulated by any one or group of individuals beyond a certain measure.
You are in such a kind of profession. However, what you do day in and day out has a lot to do with who you are...and what you are..? The emotions that run through your rest of your lives will seep through your trading life too.
Do you have a habit of procrastinating...you'll do so in your trading life too with your entries/ exits and stop losses.
Do you have a habit of abusing relationships...you'll do so with your positions..your beautiful positions that promised millions would leave you penniless.
Do you give in to bullying, not stand up for what you believe in...you'll also get bullied by the market's gyrations, unable to hold your positions.
Do you give importance to values...believe in dreams and dream big or do you just give lip service to values and dream without belief...your trading life too will pass off insignificantly.
If you are disciplined enough to cherish your each and every relationships for what they are truly worth...your mother for all the love she showered on you...for your wife for standing there behind you in every one of your efforts...for your friends for believing in you despite your shortcomings...and your children who have been given to you for nurturing who depend on you and who have given you immense joy.
Do you cherish these values...do you work consciously to nurture them...do you take responsibilities for all the outcomes of your undertakings..
Do you keep your head high and walk tall in this world for having done your duties admirably to your satisfaction....not being pushed around by traditions..societies..expectations of near and dear ones but only as per your beliefs...
Then...and then only
Trading will come naturally.
What works in one aspect of your life will definitely work elsewhere.
Swami Vivekananda told the youth "to go and play football rather than sitting and reading Bhagawad Gita" to emphasise the need to have an obedient body. Without such an obedient body, you just can't achieve greatness in this "material world".
To conquer nature, to exploit its riches....conquer yourself.
Conquering starts with small acts of yours. Get on top of your affairs.
A super conscious state of mind is needed to achieve such results. And it is definitely possible by one and all.
If you jump into the river like a piece of twig, you'll be pushed around and get washed away.
But if you jump in like a fish, you'll be able to deal with the flow of river.
To deal with anything, you need to educate yourself...train yourself. And if you are already a trained person in other walks of life, you get trained in the new ones quite easily.
Take your time to set your life in order and then come back to trading with preparedness.
Develop a poise in your mind that can withstand all swings of emotions by dealing with your daily challenges/ duties responsibly, confidently.
Only a calm mind can deal with a hurricane.
Only a faithful mind can receive divinity.
Only an obedient person can become a master.
And the last word is still not written on this but revealing your mind here is the first and major step in the right direction.
Thank you for all your contributions. They are enriching.
Dear Dinesh Rishi...Our best wishes to you for a successful conclusion.

Nifty nears the resistance zone "5258-5279" with intra corrections..

Have you ever asked yourself what is discipline in trading..??
What is your definition of discipline in trading??
Would you share your experience, the good, bad and the ugly.?

Rule #1 Always Protect Your Capital

While watching Million Dollar Baby, I can't help but notice how many times her trainer says "protect yourself".
Every trader should remember these words of wisdom before deciding to take a trade...
"Always protect your capital". We have always stressed to keep a stop loss of just 20 points unless a very valid reason exists.
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Weekly TA has turned up. For BN, it has turned up with "Momentum".
If 61.8% or 80% of the current rise from 4995 lows(Fri) holds, we would assume that the "3rd" wave is in progress.(1st wave being 4770 to 5060=290 points; giving the 3rd a min. target of 5285 as equality).
Alternatively, if Nifty finds resistance @ 5125 zone and retraces, it would be treated as 2nd wave in progress and 3rd wave waits.
One who surrenders to the price, wins...has strength of character.
Best to you "Gkm223".

Nifty Pre-Market View

Reader: You have given me enormous knowledge, confidence, system etc., of the market which cannot be termed in any thing, Thank you sir! Guruji, With the help of your Blackboard (BLOG) I could now able to understand little bit trend following, impact of different time frames on trend as well as corrections, likely profit booking/targets and reversal.
It seems, I understand that in downtrend intraday rallies are good opportunities for SHORT again & again similarly in uptrend intraday declines are good opportunities for LONG again & again.
However, every time I wait patiently to complete the rally in downtrend and decline in uptrend but I am not able to take position on right point & time. On the contrary I do nothing instead of thinking let it cross this point then again this point, let lead indicator do this or let macd move somewhere and hence, sit idly surpassing one by one candle and on exhaustion of the rally/decline I curse myself for not-acting on time & point. After the exhaustion of the move, I think with pride that my assumption was correct and should have taken the position at the crossover of EMAs or at the low/high of the candle.
What force is acting upon me? I have gone several time through your lesson "trade based on two time frames" taught on Sunday, April 4, 2010 but not able to grasp any thing about the entry criteria /entry point without fear. It may be the spoon feeding, but kindly do the favour for for me. What I have conveyed my difficulty it seems clumsy Sir, please do spare some time at your convenience to guide me about the simple entry criteria / entry point so as to enable me to take the bid confidently.
Answer: About the simple entry criteria/ entry points, you have stated appropriately, "in downtrend intraday rallies are good opportunities for SHORT again & again and similarly in uptrend intraday declines are good opportunities for LONG again & again".

What force is acting upon me? This too has been stated by you, "I do nothing; not able to grasp any thing about the entry criteria /entry point without fear; I think with pride that my assumption was correct". You know swimming but you aren't taking the plunge. We can teach you swimming but can not teach how to take the coldness of the water & deal with  the "feelings" that form in you when you swim...we can teach you cycling but can not teach you how to handle yourself while cycling in different terrains, traffic, etc. There is something no one can teach you is "to feel & face the reality".

Teaching is always done in "laboratory conditions" but acting or application is done in "real situations".
What you are experiencing is a common problem with most intelligent traders. Your intelligence is NOT THE GOAL. Realise it. Shift the goal post from "finding a trading plan" to "Trading the plan". The real "goal post" is "executing the trade plan" and only when you execute your trade, should you pat yourself and the scoring is done.
Till you realise this most important aspect of all life situations that "acting on your study, hunch, intuition alone will bear result and not getting your degree or certificate or finding a plan".

How to take the plunge: Trusting and believing in your intelligence when it works with total objectivity, initiate the trade as though it is the only right & logical thing to do. Act when you should and never after market has acted on it(that would be catching the running train). You have already done enough mental(paper) trades and now its time to execute few actual trades.....not just any trade but those intelligent trades which you are fond of patting yourself up.
Start feeling the "accomplished sense" when a trade is done and move on to the next trade... Take those trades of "selling into rallies" & "buying into declines" using fibonacci retracements even before the "indicators confirm" (Indicators take the cues from prices and hence act on prices and get confirmations from indicators later).

Start communicating with the market with your trades...she'll reward the sincere.
Get Rich Slowly and Quietly.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

A trending market with higher T/F in confirmed downtrend(week) needs to be treated differently and "lots of patience" is required to make big money.
EOD prices remain same on some days but "intraday rallies" get sold into. As a trader, you make "more money", playing those moves.
We have shown in the past few days-7th May, 8th May, 9th May, 10th May- how to initiate such trades using developing resistances along with fibonacci retracements. And they definitely are not "peanuts". Infact, they improve your "SAR performances" in a significant way.
Aren't we all traders? Rising market in downtrend offers you "Juicy opportunities" and you need to be like the smart farmer who identifies ripe fruits & pluck them. Identify those amazing opportunities to initiate trades and that is called "catching a running train at junctions till the engine is put in reverse direction".
In such downtrends, I still strongly recommend you to "Sell on rises", leaving out the "counter trend rallies" till a reversal signal emerges.
Just as "Dinesh Rishi" prefers to "Only buys in an uptrend", you could adopt "Only sells in downtrends".After all, a trend is a trend...whether "Up or Down" and a trader would do well to know the trend and play along.
5 sma is like the "Indian rope trick in a trending market" that prices keep coming back to it and moves away. It did so on the "GARR day and yesterday" and that is 2 great opportunities. Similar thing happened in BN & many stocks too.This is also called "catching up with averages".
Take advantage of the steady, disciplined contributors: "Mynac"(KST/ OI), "Sanjay Jaiswal(OI)", Cooldent(JNSAR), Shriram(Google 30min TA),J.R.Julius(Camarilla)& DineshRishi(Disciplined TA) and others to be identified once consistency is visible.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

If you want to succeed in stock market, know this: There is no perfect method/ system. You may improve upon the existing one to reduce whipsaws/ make better entry & exit or create a new system based on your own parameters.
The problem with the labelled "Perfect system" is that it makes you get into a complacent mode with a sense that your system will take care of results. Wrong. System stays wherever it is. You have to work with it. You have to manage your emotions of fear and greed. Fear always work when your system says buy (and in some cases sell) and greed when your system says sell.
If I can not make money with the most basic "Close price + 5dema or 5 dsma", then I'm not ready to use the next level system...& then on to more sophisticated systems.
Whatever system you choose, understand first how it works & whys of it and once you believe in it, never deviate from it.
I'm not an expert at certifying anybody's system. If it makes money for you, it certifies itself.
I have chosen a system and I do not want to look away from it. And you should also choose yours and stay loyal to it.

(Whenever I see enthusiasm in readers about a new system, I feel sad that they have failed to apply themselves with the ones they know of. This is not to discourage anyone from finding a new method which is better than the existing ones. But this is an honest observation of mine that most will never admit to their own shortcomings in handling a system but end up blaming the system. Hasn't JNSAR delivered 700 points in just 19 days this year or a minimum 300 points which is 30% return on a capital of Rs.50,000 in 19 days. You could sit and work the same magic with J10SAR and so many other methods)

All I emphasise here is that "Work at yourself and display everyday...every hour how you handle the market with your applied knowledge"...there is no shortage of systems. If you don't realise this soon enough, your running will never stop.

Nifty PreMarket View

Read through this article on Reckless gambler forwarded by FIRE.

Many get into the phase of reckless gambling mode once in their life, the degree of recklessness being varied. It is in your genes and you act this way when you are faced with life-threatening circumstances. Even the most disciplined individual may not be able to engage in individually rational behaviour thanks to adaptive ‘hard-wired’ neural mechanisms that conferred survival benefits to the species.

The survival of the fittest underlies “modern adaptations such as boredom, thrill-seeking behaviour, rebellion, innovation, and most recently, financial market bubbles and crashes... From an evolutionary perspective, financial markets are neither efficient nor irrational – they are merely adaptive.”

The rogue trader may appear to be acting strangely, but he does what comes naturally.

Knowledge of this kind of tendency in us should alert us to our behavioral changes and we should make a conscious effort to step back and look for conservative approach to redeem our status though it may be time consuming. Get rich slowly and quietly.

Nifty reached the earlier cluster point around 4600.

1. JustNifty TA(24th Nov)

Why traders get emotional and not able to follow through their plans?

The answer is quite simple.

When you make your trading plan, you use your brain.

When you start to execute the plan, implement your strategy, leave out the "thinking"...leave out your "ego".... Just do it.

Using your brain unnecessarily, you end up a loser...and you have also seen many messing up their trades despite knowing fully well what should be done.

Now try this: Without using your brain, simply execute the trades. Wait... wait..not just yet.. Wait for those "good trade set ups" to emerge and then start.

With this knowledge that trades are messed up when we start having "opinions" of what the market will do....and this fear holds you back from doing the right thing.

So the steps you must take include:

1. Plan a trade with one or two contingency plans.

2. Key in your order to buy or sell.

3. When the order is executed, key in the "Exit price" along with your SL.

4. Do not change it unless one of your contingency scenario start to play out.

5. For simplicity, you can do away with contingency plans.

How do I plan my trade...?

Take the JNSAR number and plan your trade with it. It can't get simpler than this.I have shown it in the pre-market table. Can you get dumber...dumber...and then see all those riches.. Stop the chatter..start hearing those money jingles.

If you are not holding your "Shorts" created @ 5275NF, wait for the next signal or next re-sell opportunity.

Click on the chart to get a clear view.

Nifty is correcting the overbought Hour TA.

Following the established studies in true spirit itself is rewarding. It is our objectivity to such studies that differentiates success/ failure.

How much importance / weightage we could give to a particular study and at what situations comes with more exposure to various markets.

How could you get more optimistic or excited or even depressed unless you have your own opinions or expectations?. If you simply state, with discrimination, what you observe and deduct your conclusions from such an objective analysis, you'll simply follow and not form opinions.

Your study should lead you to state buy/ buy on dips/ sell/ sell on rises/ wait for more clarity. It requires tremendous poise of mind. When we attain such a poise...calmness, it spreads to all aspects of our life and we become a true yogi.

It is a journey in which I still struggle to shake off my prejudices. Everyday is a progress as long as my sincerity of purpose remains.

Start believing in your strength while being humble & grateful for all the talents & resources GOD has bestowed on you. You'll then walk tall.
(I am reproducing the reply to one of our readers and felt like sharing it)

JustNifty TA( 18th Oct)

Nifty, holding Day's pivot, moved past week's Pivot & touched Month's Pivot.

There are many studies available to follow market behaviour such as Technical analysis, Elliott wave, fundamental analysis, Market Profile, etc. Within Technical analysis, there are many methods based on various momentum indicating, trend indicating as well as reversal indicating methods available. Once a beginner goes through these studies, he/ she must choose one method to follow as well as trade the market.
It is easy to get distracted when various techniques are discussed. It is the same with life too. Once a businessman chooses his trade, he/ she will go deeper into that trade and attempt to excel in it by applying all his/ her resources and such an enterprise will always deliver satisfying results.
So choose your method.And be prepared for 25% failures which will get managed by your "Stop loss application" and the remaining 75% will be well managed with "Part booking and trailing stop loss or till a reversal signal is generated".
Knowing the principles involved in your chosen method helps you to plan, execute and manage your trades independently. The initial time well spent in acquainting yourself with your system and constant affirmation to yourself about your belief in your system will help you "Stay on course" to "Get Rich Slowly & Quietly".

EW has possibilities but it generally comes down to directions in which the "distance varies". After a 5, a 3 unfolds and after a 3, a minimum 3 unfolds. This is the basic structure. Now you have to decide for yourself, what kind of trader you are and which time frame's waves you intend to trade. Choose and stay glued to it.

When you merge regular TA with EW, it favours 4th.c unfolding currently(OR an "x" wave). The bearish 5th wave down gets negated @ 5117(80%) but the negation gets confirmed above 5169 and above week's pivot, it has already lost its significance.