Nifty's "HH & HL" intact, heads to 5100++

Nifty Intraday Update

As per the chart posted earlier, the "1st" scenario may be playing out.
Targets for the same is likely to be 5100-5150.
An Alternative scenario was posted here.

Nifty Premarket View

As long as 4980 holds for the day, Nifty may attempt to move above 5020, 5035. However, break of 4980 may lead to some short term weakness only. Trade another narrow swinging day. The action may be reserved for the afternoon session with "Half year end-Propping up or redemption pressures"..

Nifty in sideways mode 4900-5035..

As long as the short term trendline is intact, uptrend will continue. If breaks, then it may head towards 20DMA(4860-4880).
The higher highs and higher lows are intact.
A decisive short term move will happen on a break of <>.
A move past 5020 may lead to new highs. Move below 4980 will be weak for the day.

Daily momentum has turned up. It needs to stay above the "High ema" for the continuation of upmove.

Nifty Intraday Update

Aggressive Trade: Exit Longs @ 5003

Nifty Premarket View

Taking the world mkt cues, the shorts need to be closed either at the open or at any minor pull back upto 4980-4990.
The corrective channel resistance comes @ 4994 and the previous swing high comes @ 5005. A move past these may lead to 5025-5035 resistances and then to R3 @ 5055.
Buy into weaknesses as the "weekly trend" remains "UP" and the daily weakness has resulted in just a shallow correction.

"57 cents of Love"

A little girl stood near a small church from which she had been turned away because it was "too crowded."
"I can't go to Sunday School," she sobbed to the pastor as he walked by.
Seeing her shabby, unkempt appearance, the pastor guessed the reason and, taking her by the hand, took her inside and found a place for her in the Sunday school class. The child was so happy that they found room for her, and she went to bed that night thinking of the children who have no place to worship Jesus.

Nifty corrects into a narrow band..

Trending up above the 5-week avg. Only a weekly close below this (4840) would warrant a "Hold Shorts" strategy. Until it breaks below 4840 & 4780, trade the corrective moves for both ups & downs....
Since 23rd after having closed below day high ema, it has been sell into intra bounces but 4905-4935 has provided supports so far. Low ema has not been violated so far except on intraday basis only.


Series of lower highs but no impulsive move down yet. Channel support for Tuesday comes @ 4860 and the 20DMA @ 4825 & rising. We need to take the trade as per Asian cues.. Will update on tuesday morning.

Nifty Premarket View..

The low for this down move seem to be 4865-4885. So book out of the shorts accordingly. If it turns out to be a triangle, it may not break the 4900..The chart shows an ideal situation.

Either hold your shorts till 4885 & lower reaches(Taking shorts home only if it closes below 5 avg/ema @ 4984-4971).
OR Quit your short positions at some lows today(Asia lower) and take a fresh view in the next week..

Supports @ 4930-4905 and then @ 4885-4865.
Resistances @ 4970-4985-5000.

I am adding an "ART Blog" that I admire for its details and easy narrative.

Sensex for Pankaj Shah..

Though there may be more possible ways to label them, I have put two most obvious looking waves.

This means we could be in a very short term down swing(ivth wave) and then go to make new highs by next week and complete this "Bear rally". Incase 15957 is violated(i), then label them as "abcde" instead of "i,ii,iii,iv,v" for the "c" leg.. Alternatively(Not labelled) (b) is actually the 1st up, (c) is 2nd and the 3rd is on from 14684, thereby allowing more upsides for Diwali.

The Blue labelling calls for a broader correction in the range of 14000 to 17000, and moving higher after a couple of months.

Nifty breaks the short term trendline but stays above 5-avg..

Nifty- Weekly View..

The high for the short term is already in place or it may make another attempt but the upsides, if any, is limited.
Profit booking on positions atleast in part in the next few days is prudent. Rebuying around Diwali season may be in order. We will monitor the movements as the days go by and assess our current views.

This happens only in Stock markets....

Amarnath said...

Dear Ilango,

on your September 22 premarket post, you updated that you entered long at 4935:

http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/2009/09/nifty-premarket-view_22.html

Nifty futures never reached this low that day. Nitty Futires low was 4942.55 on 18th Sep. Is this a typo?

Also, in yesterday's (23rd Sep) premarket view, you have given whooping 50 point range (5030-5070) for sell. Nifty Futures nor Spot never even touched this range's low of 5030. So, how did you decide to short at 5025, right at the day's peak?

I thought picking tops and bottoms consistently was not possible, but you seem to be doing it!!

Best Regards,
Amarnath.


Hi..Amarnath,

The rate on Friday was spot. I monitor Nifty with spot only as futures fluctuates with premiums/ discounts, etc and diff..series too.

When I say "Sell" in the recommendations, you need to use your own discretion based on the latest Asian mkt developments.

I have been writing consistently about not wanting to give calls but simply to share my observations and thoughts. We are only suggesting the direction and the likely levels of Nifty.

Take what is beneficial for you and ignore the rest.

I missed a 250 point rally in my conservative trade simply because I did not follow my own set of rules and exited @ 4825 and since then only taking "aggressive trades". The purpose of starting this "recommendation" was to prove to traders to trade effortlessly with least amount of time spent.

I think your comments "You seem to be picking the tops and bottoms consistently" is unwarranted. It is not in good taste. You want to share anything useful here ,do so. And refrain from making such comments here..

"Why don't people stick to their own business"....

My father, while raising his 10 children, always tell us.."un thuruthiya oodhudaa" meaning.."Just mind your own business"...

Nifty sold off after -ve div..

Nifty Intraday update

There is a possibility of a bounce even if the top is in place. We are still trading above the 5 day ema @ 4960. Those who wish to book profit may do so here..

Nifty Intraday Update

Nifty has broken the "ORB" on the downside. And it has temporarily found support at the hourly channel @ 4997. A break below will lead to 4965-4950 or even lower.

Holding this low @ 4997, it can attempt to move higher towards 5050-5070 as it is still trading above daily short term averages. To move higher, it needs to stay above 5015-5020..

As of now, breaking 4997 is crucial for further downsides.

Nifty Premarket view

Nifty's two EW possibilities...

To Lekshmi: Elliott did not define "what is a wave?". And that has left it to a subjective analysis. I do it to facilitate my trading and share it here. The purists may not accept it.
During my school days, I used to get the answers to the Mathematical questions first and then struggle to write out the regular steps to reach them..My ways are orthodox but they have stood by me.. you are free to share your views here.

At a first glance, it looks to be a simple zigzag "ABC" with subdivisions as:
A. 2539 - 4506 or 4693
B. 4693 - 3919 or 4353
C. 4353 - is on...

There are other possibilities too in "ABC"..

1. 2539 - 3517
2. 3517-3352-3710-3544
3. 3544 - 4693
4. 4693-3919 or 4353
5. 4353...is on..

Nifty inching up with "OB" & Negative divergences...

Nifty premarket View

Corrections continues.."OB" Hourly is yet to be corrected, though daily is in uptrend but away from short term averages @ 4930. A close below 4930 may lead to deeper corrections. Daily trend being UP, selective upmove in stocks will continue..
Keep reading "VIPANI SANGEETHAM" for some valuable inputs..

Acres of Diamonds

The old Arab guide was leading my camel by its halter along the banks of those ancient rivers, and he told me a story.Said he, "I will tell you a story now which I reserve for my particular friends." When he emphasized the words "particular friends," I listened, and I have ever been glad I did.
The old guide told me that there once lived not far from the River Indus an ancient Persian by the name of Ali Hafed. He said that Ali Hafed owned a very large farm, that he had orchards, grain-fields, and gardens; that he had money at interest, and was a wealthy and contented man. He was contented because he was wealthy, and wealthy because he was contented. One day there visited that old Persian farmer........

"57 Cents" of Love.!

A little girl stood near a small church from which she had been turned away because it was "too crowded."

"I can't go to Sunday School," she sobbed to the pastor as he walked by.

Seeing her shabby, unkempt appearance, the pastor guessed the reason and, taking her by the hand, took her inside and found a place for her in the Sunday school class. The child was so happy that they found room for her, and she went to bed that night thinking of the children who have no place to worship Jesus.

<-- more -->
Some two years later, this child lay dead in one of the poor tenement buildings. Her parents called for the kindhearted pastor who had befriended their daughter to handle the final arrangements.

As her poor little body was being moved, a worn and crumpled red purse was found which seemed to have been rummaged from some trash dump.

Inside was found 57 cents and a note, scribbled in childish handwriting, which read: "This is to help build the little church bigger so more children can go to Sunday School."

For two years she had saved for this offering of love.

When the pastor tearfully read that note, he knew instantly what he would do. Carrying this note and the cracked, red pocketbook to the pulpit, he told the story of her unselfish love and devotion.

He challenged his deacons to get busy and raise enough money for the larger building. But the story does not end there...

A newspaper learned of the story and published it. It was read by a wealthy realtor who offered them a parcel of land worth many thousands. When told that the church could not pay so much, he offered to sell it to the little church for 57 cents.

Church members made large donations. Checks came from far and wide.

Within five years the little girl's gift had increased to $250,000.00--a huge sum for that time (near the turn of the century). Her unselfish love had paid large dividends.

When you are in the city of Philadelphia , look up Temple Baptist Church , with a seating capacity of 3,300. And be sure to visit Temple University , where thousands of students are educated.

Have a look, too, at the Good Samaritan Hospital and at a Sunday School building which houses hundreds of beautiful children, built so that no child in the area will ever need to be left outside during Sunday school time.

In one of the rooms of this building may be seen the picture of the sweet face of the little girl whose 57 cents, so sacrificially saved, made such remarkable history. Alongside of it is a portrait of her kind pastor, Dr. Russell H. Conwell, author of the book, "Acres of Diamonds".

This is a true story, which goes to show WHAT GOD CAN DO WITH 57 CENTS.

Thinking Trader

I will post a story tomorrow as we have holidays ahead but I want to share one of my earlier posts and add something to it.
*******************************************************************
I have known many traders (Businessmen who trade in goods) for years and it dawned on me very recently the stark difference between them and the Stock market traders.
Business traders do not talk about their daily/monthly earnings, they don't do any adventurous things, they just do the same simple things that fetched them money day in & day out.....

Nifty ends the week firm..

Individual stocks performances compel me to have the alternative count. Trending up comfortably above the 5-week average for the past 4 weeks. With macd also having turned up, more highs possible during the "Settlement week".

The immediate channel bottom comes @ 4920-4930 and that should be the SL for longs with target 5100-5150. Today's close has negated the -ve div in 14 day rsi but it exists in 12 day roc.
Prices are simply trending up and that is long..
The latest shallow correction resembles the earlier correction and Nifty is closer to the channel bottom. If it holds 4940, it will head towards 5100-5150 zone.
With this set-up, holding above the weekly pivot @ 4922 & trading above daily pivot @ 4963, Nifty should be able to move higher..

Elliott Wave for Trading..

As my file got deleted , "Sujatha" offered to send the EW file to all who have requested.(While I was wondering how to find the file, I received this mail from Sujatha that she has the file and she could help me out.. What a coincidence or "Providence") To make it easier for her, please send a mail to her with a request "Send me the EW Lessons PDF document" and she can just reply to it & attach the document. This will save her from going thru' the comments section, copy, paste, etc.

Kindly send your mail to Sujatha @:
koms2003@gmail.com

Thank you Sujatha....

You have a three day break from the market and you may use it to good advantage and this document is quite compact, comprehensive and easy to understand.

Let me also thank "Anil" for offering to send the documents and he has already sent to many.

Let us all just stick to the business in hand and resist from reacting to any kind of remarks. If we can't help each other by staying focused, it may ultimately affect our money making efforts. One of the reasons I succeed is by staying away from market specific talks..

Have a very productive week end and "IDD MUBARAK".

Nifty Premarket view..

My preferred view is posted in the Nifty weekly chart below after taking into consideration of many stocks price movements, divergences, overseas markets, etc.

There could be some more upsides in the next week prior to the settlement but a correction will set in till Diwali or a week or two later also and whether that is going to be deeper or sideways is not known now and might depend on world cues..So investments may be booked profits in the coming week and reinvested prior or post Diwali..(I suggest part booking).

Nifty Sold off @ 5000+ after -ve div..

Nifty PreMarket View.

The chart below shows the channel's high - low possible extents during this day's move. Accordingly, the aggressive trader can position themselves or simply "HOLD" the position for higher targets in the days to come.
This is not to suggest that the channel top will not be violated..it can and that is the advantage for the "HOLD" strategy. But a nimble trader (Only him) may be able to utilise the swings to his advantage. But so far the intra swings have been quite narrow. More actions are taking place in individual stocks. As long as no serious break down is not seen any stock, Nifty will keep climbing higher..

The sub divisions of the current wave from 4791NF is as below:
i. (or "a") 4791 - 4949 = 158 points
iii. (or "c") 4923 - on now targetting(4923 + 158 + = 5081 +)

Nifty leaves a runaway gap since 4786.

Larger time frame looks just healthy and pushing higher each passing day. As pointed by one of the readers, it does resemble a 3.iii / C.iii wave now. Even with a flat world mkt, we might continue the uptrend.

"C" can be just 0.618 times "A" too. So far prices are trending up with brief shallow corrections..And there is a small channel within channel for trading the very short term..
Hourly low & high emas have climbed up quite steeply..


An "ending diagonal" scenario as in many world mkts which doesn't have much upsides left and so its validity will be resolved in the next couple of days..Each upmove should become lesser in magnitude and accordingly the current "c" leg should not cross 5050-5091..(C being 4580-4889=309 points; e should be smaller than C)