Friday, August 31, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
A 5 waves got completed @ 5255 from 5449.
Keep the retracements handy-5352(50%;5375-61.8% & 5410-80%).
Channel broke @ 5286.
Oversold Hour TA reversed after minor +ve div & prices above HHEma.
Reliable 9-hour rsi indicated a break-out @ 2.00PM. Above 5346, faster retracement.
Prices closed above DLEma to put the Day TA in trading mode to attempt towards DHEma+.
61.8% @ 5375, the first resistance.
80% @ 5410, the first signal of resumption of uptrend.
"5313" & "5376-79" are the critical numbers of this last day of the "week" & "Month".
(You could add "5331" for the Day TA too)
Keep the retracements handy-5352(50%;5375-61.8% & 5410-80%).
Channel broke @ 5286.
Oversold Hour TA reversed after minor +ve div & prices above HHEma.
Reliable 9-hour rsi indicated a break-out @ 2.00PM. Above 5346, faster retracement.
Prices closed above DLEma to put the Day TA in trading mode to attempt towards DHEma+.
61.8% @ 5375, the first resistance.
80% @ 5410, the first signal of resumption of uptrend.
"5313" & "5376-79" are the critical numbers of this last day of the "week" & "Month".
(You could add "5331" for the Day TA too)
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Nifty found 50sma perfect for a pause/ reversal on a volatile settlement day.
Congrats..!! to Shriram-5313-WkEMA will try to remain constant.(Great logic of a trend follower)
Congrats..!! toKumar Technicals-5310-just above DLEMA.(Calling it @ 11.47AM)
Congrats..!! to All participants; especially to those who made it closer; madamuniramaiah(5328) ; SJkolkata(5347) for coming closer to the highs.
Thanks to Jiignesh,his friend Kiran & Dinesh Rishi for their tireless efforts.
Congrats..!! toKumar Technicals-5310-just above DLEMA.(Calling it @ 11.47AM)
Congrats..!! to All participants; especially to those who made it closer; madamuniramaiah(5328) ; SJkolkata(5347) for coming closer to the highs.
Thanks to Jiignesh,his friend Kiran & Dinesh Rishi for their tireless efforts.
Nifty Pre-Market View
5246-61 is the gap area and home to many critical nos from TT.
5290-5310 cluster has failed to hold and the same becomes a resistance in ST.
The ED possibility in Day chart starting from 4770 has the channel support around 5200zone.(5191-MEma)
A weekly sell tomorrow could only generate "relief rallies" from the short term oversold conditions. When a higher T/F is undergoing a reversal attempt, the ST OS remains OS for more time as is being witnessed presently. The success of the reversal will be known only by EOD tomorrow, though bears have been advancing so far.
5290-5310 cluster has failed to hold and the same becomes a resistance in ST.
The ED possibility in Day chart starting from 4770 has the channel support around 5200zone.(5191-MEma)
A weekly sell tomorrow could only generate "relief rallies" from the short term oversold conditions. When a higher T/F is undergoing a reversal attempt, the ST OS remains OS for more time as is being witnessed presently. The success of the reversal will be known only by EOD tomorrow, though bears have been advancing so far.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
"5309" is the 2-week low (a trigger for a weekly sell-off) and
so is 26 DEma-5308(Part of day slow macd).
5294 is the low of the last corrective from 5376 high, from where(5294-5309) a small bounce could emerge owing to oversold Hour TA.
OI data for the current series at EOD showed "unwinding of 5300PE & addition of 5300CE", suggesting the vulnerability of "5300" to stand firm against the continued unloading/ unwinding of stocks.
Below 5313 & 5294, next support is @ 5264-WLEma & the gap @ 5246.
Pivot & close are the same.
Resistances are @ 5346-66 zone.
so is 26 DEma-5308(Part of day slow macd).
5294 is the low of the last corrective from 5376 high, from where(5294-5309) a small bounce could emerge owing to oversold Hour TA.
OI data for the current series at EOD showed "unwinding of 5300PE & addition of 5300CE", suggesting the vulnerability of "5300" to stand firm against the continued unloading/ unwinding of stocks.
Below 5313 & 5294, next support is @ 5264-WLEma & the gap @ 5246.
Pivot & close are the same.
Resistances are @ 5346-66 zone.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Nifty corrected to WEma(5313) and bouncing mildly...
We looked for a zigzag correction targeting 5325 as a=c. The "exceeding" could give rise to an impulsive move. In such a scenario, a bounce for the 5399-5313 fall is underway targeting 5346-56-66 zone(5346 almost done) and resume the fall.
However, the last two days, especially the last one would be at the hands of the option writers.
9 Hr Rsi; 9 Day rsi have been very good "Indicators" at critical junctures. They pointed down with -ve div few days ago. "Divergences trades" are the best trades. Never miss them and they are rewarding even after a conservative signal.
Make use of them at extreme points.
Weakness is visible with two consecutive closes below DLEma.
Weekly TA is intact but trading below WHEma and WEma was tested today and the next target during the week could be 5265(WLEma).
However, the last two days, especially the last one would be at the hands of the option writers.
9 Hr Rsi; 9 Day rsi have been very good "Indicators" at critical junctures. They pointed down with -ve div few days ago. "Divergences trades" are the best trades. Never miss them and they are rewarding even after a conservative signal.
Make use of them at extreme points.
Weakness is visible with two consecutive closes below DLEma.
Weekly TA is intact but trading below WHEma and WEma was tested today and the next target during the week could be 5265(WLEma).
Nifty Pre-Market View.
34 Hr sma has been a quite a utilitarian number once the channel broke @ 5420 two days ago.
Nifty bounced to 34 Hr sma yesterday before heading lower.
ST trend is down till below 5400-10.
Below 5342, a cluster supports @ 5294-5310.
Oversold Hour TA could produce minor bounce after making new lows of the current fall.
Nifty bounced to 34 Hr sma yesterday before heading lower.
ST trend is down till below 5400-10.
Below 5342, a cluster supports @ 5294-5310.
Oversold Hour TA could produce minor bounce after making new lows of the current fall.
Monday, August 27, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
The current fall from 5449 to 5371 may have a 5 sub-waves, though it could be labelled as "abc" too.
If 5, then it is a likely zigzag in which the "b" wave would not retrace more than 80%. Accordingly, the trading strategy would be to sell near 50% to 61.8% (5410-5419) with a SL of 80% (5435) to capture the next set of 5 sub-waves.
A fall below 5363 would be an indication of a slightly bigger fall retracing the rise from 5294 to 5449. Only a break of 5325 would lead to deeper falls.
A fall below 5363 would be an indication of a slightly bigger fall retracing the rise from 5294 to 5449. Only a break of 5325 would lead to deeper falls.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Simply go on doing your work....
First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you and then you win. - Mahatma Gandhi.
Never underestimate jealousy. Face it. Even your best well-wishers perhaps do not want you to do better than them. Few men have the strength to honour a friend's success without envy. The green-eyed monster can show up in unexpected ways in different situations.
Nicholas Fouquet, Finance minister to Louis XIV, was a well-connected and sophisticated individual and had an ever-increasing, ostentatious wealth. To please his young King, Nicholas threw a party in the year 1691, to which he invited the nobility, great minds of Europe and 6000 friends, including the King and his court. Party favours included "diamond tiaras and saddle horses"; the grounds were dotted by thousand orange trees and the table settings were made of gold.
Never underestimate jealousy. Face it. Even your best well-wishers perhaps do not want you to do better than them. Few men have the strength to honour a friend's success without envy. The green-eyed monster can show up in unexpected ways in different situations.
Nicholas Fouquet, Finance minister to Louis XIV, was a well-connected and sophisticated individual and had an ever-increasing, ostentatious wealth. To please his young King, Nicholas threw a party in the year 1691, to which he invited the nobility, great minds of Europe and 6000 friends, including the King and his court. Party favours included "diamond tiaras and saddle horses"; the grounds were dotted by thousand orange trees and the table settings were made of gold.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Nifty ends the week with Higher T/F firm & Lower T/F in corrective mode.
80% of the last rise @ 5363 has held today...just as the
80% of the last major fall was held yesterday below 5458.
80% of the last major fall was held yesterday below 5458.
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Nifty resisted Near the 80% mark and showed weakness thru' various -ve div in hour charts.
It fell by 55 points from 5449 to 5394 and also did a 50% retracement to 5421.
5421 - 55 = 5366.(Near Low ema/ weekly low) This is a rough calculation.
If 5390 is held, it could bounce a bit before getting lower.
FIIs have continued their buys, though sold in futures.
OI data hasn't been damaged yet for the 5400 support.
There can not be a conservative sell but only an aggressive sell .
Settlement close has always favoured the one with less pain...in this series, the bulls.
Hence, play the ST weakness but keep in mind the week/ Day trends.
"5365-WHEma", protection would boost bulls' chance for new highs.
It fell by 55 points from 5449 to 5394 and also did a 50% retracement to 5421.
5421 - 55 = 5366.(Near Low ema/ weekly low) This is a rough calculation.
If 5390 is held, it could bounce a bit before getting lower.
FIIs have continued their buys, though sold in futures.
OI data hasn't been damaged yet for the 5400 support.
There can not be a conservative sell but only an aggressive sell .
Settlement close has always favoured the one with less pain...in this series, the bulls.
Hence, play the ST weakness but keep in mind the week/ Day trends.
"5365-WHEma", protection would boost bulls' chance for new highs.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Nifty stalling near the 80% point of last fall(5630-4770)
Nifty is within the Day Channel.
Trend followers would continue with last pivot low 5342.
It would be interesting to look for OI changes as well as FII's data for the day.
What was witnessed today is the Hour T/F weakening, though by EOD, it held well above HLEma.
First support @ 5395, followed by twin opening low of 5368.
Trend followers would continue with last pivot low 5342.
It would be interesting to look for OI changes as well as FII's data for the day.
What was witnessed today is the Hour T/F weakening, though by EOD, it held well above HLEma.
First support @ 5395, followed by twin opening low of 5368.
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Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
