Just Nifty: May 2011

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Compassionate connection through the wire.

When I was quite young, my father had one of the first telephones in our neighborhood. I remember the polished, old case fastened to the wall. The shiny receiver hung on the side of the box. I was too little to reach the telephone, but used to listen with fascination when my mother talked to it.

Then I discovered that somewhere inside the wonderful device lived an amazing person. Her name was "Information Please" and there was nothing she did not know. Information Please could supply anyone's number and the correct time.

My personal experience with the genie-in-a-bottle came one day while my mother was visiting a neighbor. Amusing myself at the tool bench in the basement, I whacked my finger with a hammer, the pain was terrible, but there seemed no point in crying because there was no one home to give sympathy.

Nifty "pauses" in its weekly downtrend with a close above 5445.

Let us not strain to look for wave labels, especially in the short term. Remember to combine technical studies to add weightage to your observations. Feel the pulse of the market with the force with which prices rise or fall. The best place to gauge Bull-Bear's strength is during corrective phase. The undercurrent is known during such phases.Elliott, himself, would exclud3e certain topping and basing waves out of his counts as whipsaws would cloud one's assessment of waves.
While reading through the comments, beaware of the "Calls" being given out by other readers - know in advance the time to wait for the targets, stop losses (whether you are willing to risk this much money on a trade), the weightage of the observations as reflected by the prices and above all "Know your Time frame of trade - Hour/ Day or weeks and whether you are willing to have a SL as per such a T/F". Why this alert..? Though the reader may give away the calls, they may not be around to monitor it for you or urge you to book profits or exit. You have to do it confidently. Markets have a way of "freezing" even the professionals with its sudden changes. You simply trade your plans.
It is darkest before dawn and it is very bearish before a reversal. The bearishness witnessed wasn't so severe like a med. term bearishness but like a short term bearishness. Accordingly expect the reversal too to last in that much intensity & time until proved otherwise.
Tech table shows you what trend is currently on. Presently, the day trend is up with momentum but the weekly downtrend has only paused. Bulls would attempt a close above 5555 and accordingly an attempt towards 5555 is likely. A close below Day High ema will put the market back into a sideways mode.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View

This expected rally may either be retracing the fall from 5944 or 5605 provided 5300-5330 is held. Accordingly the time & price retracements will vary. Refer retracement table below. Why this sudden change.? Slowing down in prices & time compels us to look at other possibilities. A close above 5445(WLEma) will confirm an arrest to the fall in the short term.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Nifty, having closed above DLEma, will set its eyes on WLEma.

If it is ending diagonal, it should face resistances around 5435-5445 and fall towards 5350 or lower to complete it. If it moves past the channel firmly, it could be part of a running corrective which could take it higher.
Identifying correctives as they are developing is a difficult task. Have an alternative plan in hand as it happened today when Nifty was falling from 5406.5, It was expected to have ended a zigzag(abc) @ 5375.15 but it had a surprise to eliminate the early entrants with an "abcde" but going to the anticpated support zone of 5360-5370 and moved up sharply.
At such junctures, trade with support/ resistances.