Nifty traded below our Pivot, played around the critical "2730"..

Only TA works with some EW counts during intra movements.(Refer the 1-Minute chart)
You learn your EW in these intra moves which reappear in the larger time scales too.
So at day's low when the ending diagonal was ending, you just have to go long after a count of a clear "5". And that is an impulsive move down ( or is it an "(a)" of the "b" wave.??).
Nifty may again move in a narrow range on Monday..If 2690-2700 levels hold, then 2850-2860 is possible by Tuesday(As "d" leg of the ending diagonal). Low emas of week, Day & Hour are 2725-2735..
If 2678 & 2662 are broken, more severe fall is possible. Nifty has managed to withstand all negative cues by holding out this 2662-2709 area well sofar. It will be put to test in the coming week once again.
More time spent in this range, market may gain strength with weaker stocks shedding value and stronger ones consolidating well.
Keep those "intra icharts" & the Pivot table & the likely ranges...and trade light..Protect your capital for the big moves..Money saved is money earned too.
A likely range may be 2695/2715 to 2775/2785..(Fine tune it as per the cues)




There are so many fractal moves in this above "Hourly Chart".

Nifty's daily range narrows down and so too weekly's..

Daily trend has changed from down to up. 2-day swing has given a buy. However, holding 2730 low is very important. Nifty is also heading into quite many resistances in the 2800-2820 area.
With short term nearing "OB" area, one round of profit booking/ selling may be considered.

2678-2709 has given buying interest during very -ve cues of world mkts..
2808...........has not been breached for last 4 days above which 2860, another critical level.

Till these ranges are not broken, trade as per TA. So many possibilities of bottoming exist and none of them will end in a hurry. It is likely to take minimum 2 weeks for resolving the same, provided "2662" low & 2885 high are held till then.

A Likely range of 2740/2745 to 2795/2805 may play out.

As long as "2660" is holding, Keep this view going..& Trade those points.

A trading range of 2690 to 2880/2900 is expected in the coming days if this contracting ending diagonal is to play out in the coming days.
A minor "b" wave for the settlement today is quite apt considering the volatality associated with all those Inflation, GDP Nos, etc.
A likely range for the day may be 2730/2740 to 2780/2800.

This view is supported by the Dow EW count of 5.4 on(Ours "D" leg up) and finally 5.5 dn (and ours "E" leg dn-5th wave ending diagonal)

Nifty continues to close above 2730, thereby stays within the Triangle.

Dow nearly completing its 5.3rd and may soon be in 5.4. In such a scenario, looking at our charts and having an alternate count:
At 3147, the 4th wave ended as a simple flat. Subsequent to that we have been having waves with 3 sub waves indicating a possibility of a contracting ending diagonal as a 5th wave.
a. 3147 -2662 ; b. 2662 - 2970; c. 2970 - (2678..????); d. ............up ; e. ........dn to complete the 5th wave. For this to play out, Nifty should hold 2650 levels.
This is just a possibility as our markets are not falling as much as other markets. and some sectors are witnessing reversals such as Cement, select auto counters and so on.
Today, Nifty went upto the Pivot table's R2 @ 2788 and fell.
For tomorrow, if it can find support at 2750, some more bounces can be expected. However, more weakness will be seen below 2750.
Presently, the hourly time frame reached the "OB" region and sold off in the last hour and the daily & weekly trend remains down only.

Nifty's intra rallies continue in the 5.(2) wave..

The positive divergences that developed in the past few days are translating into intra rallies despite huge negative sentiment in the world markets.
U.S S&P500 has fallen for 6 days in a row and it is due for a bounce.
The near "Nil" discount in Feb futures point to weak bears in this series.
Nifty is in downtrend in weekly & daily. However, the hourly continues with + div in the "OS" region. Trade light..2750-2770 is a strong resistance zone followed by 2800. A fall below 2680 will lead to huge selling.
"Lots" differences in the March series will hamper retail rollovers owing to margin pressures.

(The triangle in Nifty that developed over the past 4 months can be labelled as 5th wave in the form of an ending diagonal...So holding 2680-2660 in the next few days will keep some bullish scenario alive) Trade this sideways range of 2678 - 2807 until a decisive break...

Untouched by it all..That is you..!! Jay Ho!!!

This is from Paulo Coelho's 'Like the flowing river'.

Cassan Said Amer tells the story of a lecturer who began a seminar by holding up a 20$ bill and asking 'who would like this 20$ bill?'.
Several hands went up, but the lecturer said:' Before I give it to you, I have to do something.'
He screwed it up into a ball and said: 'Who still wants this bill?.'
The hands went up again.
'And what if I do this to it?.'
He threw the crumpled dollar at the wall,dropped it on the floor, insulted it, trampled on it, and once more showed them the bill-now all creased and dirty.
He repeated the question, and the hands stayed up.

'Never forget this scene', he said. ' It doesn't matter what I do to this money. It is still a 20$ bill.So often in our lives,we are crumpled, trampled, ill treated, insulted, and yet, despite all that, we are still worth the same'.

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I wish "Slumdog Millionaire" wins many Oscars. Jai Ho!!!

Nifty may still be doing the 2nd wave of this 5th Down as an irregular correction..!!

As per the weekly charts, we still remain within the triangle. And the weekly trend has turned firmly down.
Some positive divergences appeared in 5-min & Hourly charts and a bounce is on. Daily is in "OS" region and so a short rally for 2 days if there are + ve cues.
This rally can continue upto 2780 and above which to 2805/2820. There are positive divergences in so many stocks. So keep that in mind while you go into trade on Tuesday.
A close below 2730 is required for a fast fall as mentioned earlier...
Lastly, with weekly trend also having turned down, play the bounces carefully and sell @ 2850-2860 if the rally reaches there with SL 2880.

Nifty on the verge of breaking "2750" aided by -ve world mkts..!!

US mkts did not rally as I expected and Asian mkts are trading 1.5-2.0% lower.

Either we trade this shallow range of 2750 - 2800 for another day, leaving a long weekend blank...!!! Or we might lead the way for the rest of the market & break lower.

We have been considering a counter trend rally for the steep fall from 2970 to 2738 and the rally has been quite shallow thus far and threatens to end anytime. Bulls are definitely losing and the settlement closing pressure will weigh them down.

Weekly trend, in all probability, will turn down with this Friday's close. Sensing the same, Sgx Nifty has fallen 42 points already. SO Trade the trend and hold it.

Nifty's counter trend rally enters 2nd day...and to 3rd tomorrow..

Nifty continues its feeble counter trend rally from yesterday's low of 2738. And the same is likely to continue up towards 2820/2840. Only a close above 2860 will provide strength to the bulls to chase the bears for"Short covering". With only 4 days to go for the settlement(Monday-Holiday), we are trading near the lower end of the range. Sell on rallies continues in the area of 2825-2845. Remember..corrective "c" up generally changes a bear into a bull..!!

A fall below 2755 will trigger a fast fall.

Nifty held above the Pivot point today well but the spread is very very small. And volumes too.

Nifty pauses to adjust the short term "OS" factor...

Nifty has managed to close above 2730(B-D Line) inspite of US Mkts but assisted by Asian Mkts. This resembles a pause and 2843, last week's close plays a important point besides the "2860" pivot of last many weeks.
Till Nifty manages to close above 2860, intra rallies upto 2860-2880 may be used to sell. Resistances for the up,move will start from 2820.
Stay with the main trend .
Today our Pivot 2794 played very promptly. Look at all those numbers and trade well.

Nifty breaks the channel, a close below 2720 will accelerate the fall.

Nifty confirms for the 2nd time the resumption of downtrend by breaking the channel(On Mon, it was the faster retracement of the last rise).

I have labeled the fall as 1st wave and a bounce to 2nd wave if +ve or flat world mkts. On the contrary, if the cues are negative, treat the last hour fall & rise as a running 2nd wave correction & we may fall bigtime as the "iii"rd of this wave down. The b-d line of the 4th wave triangle is positioned at 2725. A gap down below that will confirm the "iii".

Daily trend is down & midway. Though the hourly is over sold, Nifty can keep sliding down cos of the daily's downtrend. Only when the daily is highly "OS", look out for +ve div in Hourly charts.

5th waves are called speculatives as fundamentals do not support the fall. However, the fall will continue irrespective of the compelling valuations. Wait patiently for the down move to get stretched or tired or oversold or developing +ve div. In the meantime, prepare a list of the stocks you would like to buy...some high beta, some in favoured sectors(Power, infra), some in the lead sectors(Auto, Cement) and some in cyclical commodities(Oil, Metals,etc).

How this 5th will play out...as swift & ferociously, ending diagonal or a triangle..Few more days of price action should unravel that.

This week's close will confirm the weekly turning down. Use any minor rallies to sell. And get rich slowly.

Nifty's budget blues & stopped at the channel bottom.

EW:
Was it the "c" of the 2nd wave of the 5th down ended yesterday and we are in 5.3???
Was it the "e" wave of the 4th Triangle ended yesterday or one more "abc" pending?
Was it the "g" leg of the "X" (Bow Tie Diametric) ended yesterday??

All possibilities exist & more too, some bullish. Channel break should guide us. A faster retracement of the last rise from 2879 to 2970 has happened today suggesting a reversal. Follow up fall after short term bounce is to be expected. 2 & 5 day swing reversal has also happened.

TA:
Nifty closed below short term avg & reversing into downtrend with a last support being the 20DMA at 2820-2825. A bounce is due for short term if 2820 is not broken towards the 50DMA at 2880. If Nifty continues to trade within the channel, it may attempt to go past 2970. As channel trading has been quite useful during these corrective moves, a fall below todays low should be seen as a confirmed reversal.

With US mkts closed today, I suspect a bounce to happen tomorrow keeping most guessing??

A likely range may be 2825/2840 -2860- 2880/2920.