Nifty's Struggle in the Gap !

Nifty's struggle goes on in the gap area of 4260 to 4370..We see a 5 minor waves up from 4159 to 4342 and it is correcting that upmove. May spend the Friday between 4285/4260 to 4342. If closes above 4342, consider the 3rd wave has started.Nifty has closed above 5 DMA (4318).Macd(12,26 ema) has entered positive territory.Daily stochastic has turned up. The set up is ready for the next move up. As long as it does not fall much below 4260, the uptrend is safe for the short term.Good Luck to all in the August series.

Nifty's settlement..

During the "Badla" days of BSE, we could make out the longs & shorts clearly & act accordingly. Now that information is not available. Going by the price behaviour, shorts have rushed in to square their position leading upto good rallies. Again one should read the number of calls & puts writing series to decipher the level the market likely to settle today. Last week's close of 4313 may act as a pivot today.5-Monthly high & low EMA's are 4342 & 4257.So a definite close above 4257 is on the cards and an attempt at 4342 (& 4390-50 DMA) are also possible.Close above 4345 will be more positive for the short term.My bet is a range of 4290 to 4390 for the day !!

Nifty in Channels

Nifty on the settlement day generally closes close to the trend of that month which is up for this month and trading close to the high of this month.Nifty which outran itself in the 1st wave up(3790 to 4540), is spending time filling the gaps (4260 to 4370). Once it clears 4378, it should move up smoothly. Hourly technicals favour the same. Tomorrow's move should confirm the daily turning up. Channels have helped to trade the Nifty. Today it broke the downward channel at 11.30 AM at 4270 & given a buy.Since it is the 3rd(or "C") wave, trade up till we see price behaving differently.

Nifty near a critical support..

Will the Nifty stop at 4100 ? Tomorrow's price action will confirm..If trades flat to marginally high in the morning and then fall towards 4100 area..correction may end by evening or on settlement day(31.07.08). Only concern for this scenario is the gaps that are left behind by these indices so generously for the bears.I will welcome any upmove in world indices as that would provide shorting opportunity. Daily stochastics have been falling since 3 days & not yet reached the bottom. Last month close is 4040. Three weeks of buying below 4040 in July made the 750 points rally to 4540 possible. So 4040- to be protected...

Nifty to fall

Nifty's steep upmove from 3790 to 4590 is getting corrected. Following a fall to 4297, it is trading sideways now. Fall below 4297 will accelerate the fall. Alternatively a rise to either 4374 or 4405 will attract selling. Hourly MACD is poised to move into negative zone. Crude showing signs of bottoming and poised for an upmove / bounce. More downsides in store.Metal stocks have shown weakness first.(Stop Loss be at 4445 for now)

Nifty-Preferred view..

After getting inputs from my critics and friends, I consider my preferred wave count that we have finished our larger "A" down from 6257 to 3790 and we are on the "B" up now."B" waves are generally complex and various possibilities occur in them. Hence, during this period , short term trading is considered based on Technical analysis only.One move is over from 3790 to 4540. A correction to this upmove is on.

Nifty in 5th Wave down?

Sensex has done an downward Island reversal but Nifty has managed to close the gap.Will sensex close the gap on Monday or are we going for new low(ONE LAST).I read somewhere that positive returns by being bearish when trading below 200DMA and if market closes positive for 5 or more days, has higher highs for 5 or more days and the RSI reading is above 80 to 90.We have fulfilled all the above criteria.So i am being bearish. Besides the above sensex chart clearly shows we are headed down in a 5 th wave (Yoda ., would you read this chart & see anything different than the one labelled.Though I have labelled only "a" of 4th, and we may be in "b" of 4th & to make another high above 4540 to complete the 4th "C" before starting the powerful 5th down, there is the other possibility that 4th"b" was an irregular bottom & what we witnessed from 16.07.08 to 24.07.08 was the 4th"c" and we are already in 5th Down).Some of the stocks show a typical 4th wave up and may start their 5th down either on Monday or Tuesday. Nifty will confirm the same if trades below 4297 on Monday.

Nifty-Paused

Nifty's Gaps

Nifty was resisted at 4540 gap yesterday and was sold off with volume. A dreaded Gap down is staring at Nifty today. As long as it does not open gap down below 4371, corrections from here to 4345, 4265 or even 4165 is alright. Rightnow, the daily stochastics has turned down & hourly are about to fall below 70. So a short term trend has started. Let us watch the Nifty action at around 4200 to 4250 area.

Nifty-Hourly waves

Nifty up on Volume

The Volume which was absent till Tuesday in this uptrend came in today with a vengence. Sentiment which is very vital for this upmove (Like enthusiasm in life)is back.Retracement for the last fall from 5255 to 3790 works out to 4695 (61.82%).We have a gap at 4541 to 4570.And the last minor 5th wave which finished as an ending diagonal(EW) or falling wedges (TA) started from 4678 to 3790. Ending diagonals are retraced fast. We have very clear ending diagonals in many stocks.Those are the immediate targets.Retracement for the Major wave down from 6357 to 3790 works out to 4765 (38%), 5074(50%) and 5376(61.82%).Keep these options open as we are moving up with volumes, after showing positive divergences in weekly, Daily and hence the technical set up of the market is likely to change with these price behaviours.

NIFTY-Uptrend continues..

Nifty has shown enough strength thus far.Any corrections should be an entry / reentry point till we see weakness. After a study of so many stocks, it is clear weekly corrections are over and a bigger rally is underway. Any pull back towards averages such as 25, 10, 5 DMA should be used to buy into only.I will keep this chart as a map and ride it up till a different scenario emerges.

Nifty-No weakness yet !

Nifty halted near the 25 DMA for 2 hours before moving up higher.Prior to the major event, the short term looks overbought. With world markets cues, we may have range trading.(Between 4215, 4185 to 4130 , 4100/4080). No sell signal yet but we'll look out for them tomorrow.

Nifty halts ?

Hourly RSI has entered the overbought area. Market has rallied 320 points. Expect some selling from here. 10 DMA at 4014 & 5 DMA at 3950 may act as supports.On the higher side 4118 - 4135 area where 25 DMA will act as resistance. If Asia opens firm , you may get your selling opportunity. If I take the move from 3790 to 4110 or higher on Monday as an "abc" bounce forming "A" up., then the "B" with its "abc" down will be trickier. So trade lightly in this "B" wave and allow it to give us some clarity on the subsequent moves.

I must thank Sunil for suggesting an easy way to upload charts.And my sincere gratitude to both Sunil and Manoj for posting my blogs on their sites.I like to add here I have not received any formal training in either Elliott's or Technical analysis but have read extensively on them and put them to test and believe in that much only which works and the rest are given a goby.In the ultimate analysis, all these methods should bring in clarity and strategies to initiate profitable trades and investments.

Nifty Breaks out..

These are the Monthly, Weekly, Daily & 5-Minute charts of Nifty to understand the various time cycles acting at the same time.Nifty seems to have completed a ABC Correction (6357 - 4448 (A)., 4448-5550-4468-5255(B)., 5255 - 3790 (C)., & corresponds with positive divergences , points towards a medium term bottom being made at 3790. The 5 wave upmove from 920 (Year.2002) to 6357 (Year-Jan.2008) cannot be corrected in say 6 months time. So an upward correction to this just concluded downward correction is unfolding now. "B" waves are sucker waves..LET US REMEMBER THAT.During this upmove, the journey is expected to be very bumpy making people to change their mind frequently. Like Manoj said " a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"...and thats how it will be.Once the "B" upmove is over, we should turn southwards to complete the dreaded "C" wave.
For the coming week, we may have a correction towards 4000 to 3985 area as the hourly is in overbought area, which will be aided by Delhi Durbar.Buy into this corrections as anything below this week's close should become profitable by weekend.

Nifty's Day Out

At last our Market will see the sun today!

We should steadily inch upwards with periodic corrections on the way. As I see it, the hourly has logged into uptrend and the daily also closed above 3943 (The 5 DMA).So let us keep reminding to ourselves " BUY ON EVERY DECLINES" till the weakness is seen in larger time frames such as weekly & daily.Immediate resistance levels are 4014 & 4085.Last week's close of 4049 will offer a pause to gather steam ( as at that level Nifty would have travelled 260 points).Incase for any local events market stalls without clearing 4014, a fall cannot be ruled out.At this juncture 3885 is a main support.If 4014 is scaled, then 3940 will become a support.

As observed a day earlier, it still looks like we are in the 4th wave up from the level of 4215 (1 = 4215 to 4014; 2 = 4014 - 4117; 3 = 4117 - 3790; 4 = 3790 - is still on..)only a move above 4117 will change the setup. Or else, we should make a new low to end the 5 wave down..

Nifty Tired?

Nifty nearly touched the 3rd wave target levels at 3776(Touched 3790).A positive divergence has developed in daily, hourly & 5-Minute charts. Now the price has to confirm the reversal(Which it will oblige with world mkts' help). However, only a move above 4015 & 4117 will confirm a decisive reversal lasting few weeks. Failure to reach these levels will result in one last down (As during positive divergences new lows are made trapping bears).When EW is not clear or having many possibilities, just take refugee in technicals and tech says " I am quite oversold..Can't take this selling beyond a couple of days!"

Nifty for a Week

We have seen a 1st wave dn from 4215 to 4004 (211 points) and a clear ABC up to 4117 and the 3rd has started down. Should fall more than 211 points (1.618 times 211 = 341 points..targetting 3776).This is just one possibility. The fall can be 1.38 or 2 or 2.618 times also. Subsequent to this 3rd down(Preferably at around 3776), we should have a 4th wave trading sideways/ violent up (without touching the 1st wave bottom 4004), head lower towards further lows to complete this 5th wave. This view seems reasonable with daily technicals showing weakness till Fri/ Mon.I would like to review the price action day by day as so much changes with volatality.

S&P 500 is expected to bottom around 1170(trading now at 1219 after making a low of 1200)which is a fall of 2 to 3 % from here.Oil has started to show some down moves..If we see some positive divergences in the daily charts, we may be near a temperory bottom.

Nifty Ahead..

Nifty has been in downtrend Since 6357 top. After a first fall(A wave), it underwent a time correction without a significant upmove (Weakness ahead) and the larger time scales such as Monthly turned down convincingly and thus paved the way for the "C" wave(Dreaded). We have been trending down in this way from 5255 with periodic corrections lasting 3 to 5 days only. Bottom is seldom made with rising channel. This kind of correction is generally associated with the pause (Correction) in the continuation of the trend(Down here).The falls are sharp but the corrections are slow and laborious.Break of 4004 would lead us to new lows.I like to add here 5 D of Daily Stochastics have given immense help in showing the direction of the short term trend and it has turned down since Fri close. So mkt should be down till Thu or Fri (Minimum).As per EW, we have seen a 1st wave dn from 4215 to 4004 (211 points) and a clear ABC up to 4117 and the 3rd has started down. Should fall more than 211 points (1.618 times 211 = 341 points..targetting 3776).