Showing posts with label Elliott wave. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliott wave. Show all posts

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics

Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves.

1. Impulsive waves are made up of 5 waves which themselves are made up of 5 waves. This is called the fractal nature of waves. This fractal nature of waves can be carried down to the smallest time frames. You may hear that we are in W5 of W5 of W5 of daily W5. Fractals within fractals within fractals ... This is important to a trader when he/she is trying to catch the end of a move while waiting for all patterns to be complete. Trading a reversal as it is completing its final wave into a strong resistance or support, is a very high probability trade.

2. Within a 5 wave pattern, Waves 1, 3, & 5 are themselves impulsive.

Below is an illustration of impulsive waves that move the market in its trending direction.


3. Within this 5 wave impulsive pattern depicted above, Waves 2 and 4 are corrective. We will cover corrective waves later. These corrective waves can be either simple or complex and one finds the lower the timeframe, the more complex these corrections become. Simple corrections are 3 waves (ABC or Zig Zag) and complex corrections are combinations of 3 and 5 wave structures.

4. In a 5 wave impulsive pattern, one of the impulsive waves (W1, 3, or 5) will generally extend and be longer than the other two. In the case of ES, Wave 3 is usually the extended wave. (Commodities, it is often Wave 5).



5. Truncation: Sometimes when the market is weak, we see a different reaction from Wave 5. We see a failed W5. A hint that W5 might fail is a 5 wave pattern that is completing below the level of W3. When we see a W5 failure (truncation), we can expect a deeper than normal correction.
6.An ending diagonal is a special type of wave that occurs in the 5th wave position when the preceding 3rd wave has gone "too far too fast". Ending diagonals can also be seen, sometimes, in the c wave of an "ABC". In all cases they are found at the termination of larger patterns suggesting exhaustion of the trend. Ending diagonals take a wedge shape with a sub waves of 3-3-3-3-3. A rising diaganl is bearish followed by a sharp decline and a falling diagonal id followed by an upward thrust. EW study helped to identify the "ending diagonal" possibility when Nifty made its low @ 2539 in Mar.09. Wave Personality: First waves are part of basing formations and "sell on rise" continues, though breadth and volumes tend to rise with prices retrecing the previous decline in shorter time. Second waves retraces much of the first wave convincing the bears that the downtrend is still on and the sell on rise has yielded good results and is followed with declining volumes. Third waves are strong and broad and the trend is unmistakable. They generative highest volumes and tend to be extended with many gaps in them. Fourth waves are predictable in both depth and form because of alternation as well as their tendency to terminate near the 4th of the previous time cycle and also a small break of the trendline.Lagging stocks build their tops. Fifth waves can be explosive and quite sharp if third wave has extended as it did in 2007-2008. And if 3rd wave was quite powerful, 5th can be an ending diagonal as it happened during the decline in year 2008-2009(A wave down).
The following is a summary of points that help to project price targets based on wave relationships:




The best approach is "Whatever Elliott rule will not allow, you can deduce that whatever remains is the proper perspective, no matter how improbable it may seem".
Wave Principle trains the trader/ investor to discern what the market is likely to do next before it does it. Wave principle limits the possibilities and then orders the relative probabilities of possible future market paths.
When you have conquered the essential task of applying a method expertly, you have done little more than gather the tools for the job. When you act on that method, you encounter the real work: Battling your own emotions. Thus it makes it clear that "Analysis" and "Making money" are two different skills and there is no way to understand that battle off the field....Only speculating in the real markets can prepare you for "Speculation in Markets". And you must do it yourself. Choose the wave principle..It will start you thinking properly and that is a first step on the path to trading successfully.
Get Rich Slowly.



Saturday, May 21, 2022

Elliot wave "Principle" , "Rules & Guidelines".(Part-3)

What is the Elliott Wave Principle? In its simplest form, it is that most market trends unfold in 5 waves in the direction of the trend, and in 3 waves in the direction counter to the main trend. Simple! 5's and 3's. The 5 wave patterns are impulsive waves that cause the market to trend. The 3 wave patterns are corrective, and can be thought of as the market taking a breath so it can continue the trend. EW believes that these patterns are caused by group psychology and the interplay of fear and greed. A complete Elliott Wave pattern has 8 waves: 5 during the “impulse” phase and 3 during the “corrective” phase. EW is a fractal concept, so look closely at Wave (1) and Wave (2). The entire 8-wave structure that comprises the first and second wave is exactly the same as the complete 8-wave structure that completes the whole chart, which itself might be a larger Wave 1 and Wave 2 of a higher time frame. It is important to understand that Elliott Wave is fractal. In an impulse (an uptrend, for simplicity), Waves 1, 3, and 5 will ’subdivide’ into their own smaller 5-wave affairs. Waves 2 and 4, which move against the larger trend, have a 3-wave structure. EW principle is fractal, meaning a complete five-wave impulse up might just simply be part of Wave 1 or Wave 3 (or Wave 5) of a larger complete wave structure, which itself might be part of an even larger wave structure.This is how to understand Elliott Wave Fractal ‘waves within waves.’ Here are the ‘ideal’ correction types: It may take few sessions to elaborate on these corrections which make up 85% of market moves. Efficient trading requires mastering of these. We will take it up later. Rules:- Keep these three "Hard rules" (Unbreakable) always in mind while assessing/ counting/ labeling the price moves to help you arrive at a correct count which can result in a unbelievable forecast & stupendous trades. - An impulsive wave always subdivides into five waves (1-2-3-4-5). - Wave 1 usually subdivides into an impulse or seldom into a leading diagonal. - Wave 2 subidivides into a zigzag, flat or combination. - Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1 (Rule-1). - Wave 3 always moves beyond the end of wave 1 and is never the shortest (Rule-2). - Wave 5 subidivides into an impulse or an ending diagonal. - Wave 4 subidivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination. - Wave 4 never moves into the territory of wave 1 (Rule-3). Below is an illustration of these rules. Guidelines:- These are flexible rules but quite useful in identifying/ recognising a wave and its likely type or pattern. - Wave 1, 3 or 5 is usually extended, while wave 1 is the least commonly extended wave. - If wave 3 is extended, it’s common for sub wave 3 of 3 to extend as well (the same applies for wave 1 and 5). - Subwave 3 of 3 almost always has the steepest slope within the parent impulse. - Wave 5 often ends when hitting a line drawn from the end of wave 1 or 3 that is parallel to a line drawn between the ends of waves 2 and 4. - Wave 5 normally ends beyond the end of wave 3, if not it’s called a truncation. - If wave 2 was a sharp correction, wave 4 will almost always be a sideways correction and vice versa (Alternation). - Wave 2 is usually a zigzag or zigzag combination. - Wave 4 is ususally a flat, triangle or combination thereof. - Wave 4 usually ends within the price territory of the fourth wave of wave 3. - Wave 4 usually breaks the trendline . The most difficult part of Elliott Wave analysis is correctly labeling and counting the waves. A correct count can lead the analyst to amazing accuracy in forecasting the market. Applying what is learnt: Learning can go on for eternity but practice must start immediately to develop the "Intuitive capability" to understand and apply this knowledge for profitable trades. EW knowledge helped us to close the shorts @ 4960 and create longs too. A move past the "i" wave of the 1st wave and a faster retracement gave another entry point. Expanded flat of 2nd wave hinted at underlying bullishness and thus a shallow 2nd wave to hold on for the 3rd wave. The 5-sub waves of 3rd wave alerted us to book profits at 5300+. Shallow 2nd wave revealed an "alternation" in 4th wave to be steeper to play "Selling". An "abc" correction helped us to initiate a long near the lows. 1st wave is 4944 - 5197 = 253; 3rd wave is 5161 - 5310 = 149. 3rd wave cannot be shortest(Rule-2) and hence the 5th can not be more than 148. So if 5235 is the end of 4th, then 5th can not move past 5383. If it does, then the count is wrong and we should revisit the same. If 4th continues further down, it should not enter the 1st wave territory of 5197(Rule-3), and 5th measurement should start from that new low between 5200-5235. An alternative scenario suggests of an ending diagonal possibility in the daily time frame. In such a case, the hourly should sub divide into "ABC" as shown below. Use Elliott Wave however you see fit and however it works for you - just like any of the hundreds of technical indicators out there. Read the previous posts Part-1 and Part-2 here. Get 10 Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever from Elliott wave International by registering as a member (Free). We will discuss the impulse waves in detail including the ending diagonal in the next week. Until then keep counting the waves and money. Get rich slowly.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Please guide me about using 34hrsma as a sar.
1. Entry/exit rule. Whether to trade on crossing it or wait for hrly close?
2. Imp one..how to decide SL. Suppose 34hrsma is 8000 and nifty trading below it. Now when nifty cross it should we enter entra hour or wait for hrly candle close? If we take as it croas it and close above it but in next hr if again it crosses from above to below it? How much to keep sl( fixed 20 points) in case of sudden reversal?
SuggestionYour question starts with the answer - i.e: Use it as a SAR. However, I suggest you to use it as a reference pointer-Look at the Hour chart with the 34 hrSma in "Red" colour. It breaks down first but there was a recent low at 7856 and it holds at 7862 & reverses-the recent low helped; the 2nd break down happens and another recent low at 8061 provides support with a low at 8050;

Friday, August 22, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Nifty has paused around the 7900 for two days on the back of overbought hour technicals. That is resistances established in the short term.-Yesterday, it got resisted around 7911(7920).
Now, we need to look out for possible supports. Prices, though breached the 21 hr sma, managed to close above "it" on the back of "avergaing".
Another reliable support is around the 34 hr sma +/-5pts.(34hrsma at 2.00PM when Nifty made a low of 7856 was 7851 which is 7851+5)
Another way of looking for support is whether DHEma less 20 or 30 points hold(It held in the region of DHEma less 20 or 30 which was 7881-20-30=7861-7851) but this must get completed in the opening session and buying interest should return in the second half, failing which there will be a likely "Sell on rises" signal emerging.(The low was made at 1.02PM and buying interest did emerge in the second half)
On the other hand, if the 1st session makes highs near resistances or new high, there could be "roll over" pressure....(1st session moved into resistances and roll over pressure was seen bringing the price down by 60+ points)
Once you start to see 3,4, (3), (4)'s, it is trading time..(Trading time - resistances to supports and supports towards resistances)
And this is called "only Ullu banoing..ullu banaoing.." 
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I have labelled yesterday's low of 7856 as "iv" tentatively, it could be 4 too. It depends on prices holding 7882 or 7872.
EW helps us to trail a position;
EW tells us if more price advances are likely;
EW is synonymous with channels and the channels help us to capture bulk of the prices.
There are no perfections in the market; Use your imagination to fit in the imperfections of the market into such anticipated perfections.
Above all, flow...& let your mind be like a mirror to reflect the price behaviour in the most objective way.
(This hour expanding triangle/ broadening top reminds us of the one in the Day T/F)

Monday, March 10, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Corrections have been of either 41 or 75 points, min & max. Accordingly, if moves below 6498(6538-41), it is likely end around "6463-67".
Corrections , during uptrend, are opportunities to initiate trades.
Corrections happen when prices have deviated from the averages(mean) by a "mile"... while prices come down to meet the averages, the averages too rise upto meet them. And then, uptrend resumes..
EW: From 5119 to 6343, prices sub-divided into 5 sub-waves(refer EOD charts)-1st wave.
From 6343 to 5933, prices sub-divided into 3 sub-waves(Irregular flat-bullish)-2nd wave taking 65 trading days(approx).
From 5933, the 3rd wave has commenced which will sub-divide into 5 sub-waves. The "1"st wave is unfolding from 5933 and its sub-waves are being labeled in hour chart; (Labeling a sub-wave of a sub-wave is a challenging one-hence, take a step back now & then and allow itself to reveal.)
And whenever, this 1st wave gets completed, the "2"nd wave would take time "closer to election completion", roughly 40 trading days.
During this period, "retracing the last rise" levels should guide you and also keep this "Big.3"rd wave scenario in contention.
I will update the hour labels to understand the completion of 1st wave from 5933.
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I’m trying to get better at receiving.
I am, now, ready to receive a present from people who have benefited from my teachings.
It is time to receive something. (Details at Top rightside of blog)
"Thank you; I accept."

Monday, December 9, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Market has prepared itself with many 1s,2s, i,ii,(i),(ii), (i),(ii) and poised to unfold its (iii),(iv),(iii),(iv),iii,iv & 3s & 4s...
Combining other studies, one is able to choose the favourable direction and follow prices...trend.
A pull back on a break out should be followed by a trending move. Only if that fails to happen, should we start to looking out for weakening signs.
Until then, follow the prices using "retrace of the last rise" which is likely to unfold today from Friday's low of  6231.

Friday, November 1, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Bruce Lee once said, "I can show you 10,000 of my ways, but they are my way. You must find yours."
And when you find them, share them too.
The Best part of EW study is its "Validation & invalidation numbers" and we follow them by using "last rise retrace in uptrend and last fall retrace in downtrend. This one strategy gives so many successful trades that we witnessed in the recent past and we'll continue to experience them in future too....remaining objective at all times.
(The last rise from 6245 ended @6309 with a 5 sub-waves)
Need we say anymore....!!

Monday, September 23, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

5-Waves got completed @ 6142.
Did we know for sure? No.
Then, how do you make your trading plans at such a juncture?
We spotted a 5 sub-waves in the fall from 6142 to 6089 at Friday's open.
It could only be either a (iv)th wave of the last rise from 5805.
OR
The start of a correction for the entire 5 wave rise from 5119 to 6142/ Reversal.
In both cases, the immediate direction is "Down".
So what does one do?
"Sell @ retrace of 50%-61.8% with a SL above 80%", the best trading strategy for traders I strongly recommend and that translated into as below:
"Sell @ retrace of 6116-22 with a SL above 6131".
And Prices started to fall on retracing upto 6131 on RBI announcements.
That still kept both the options open.
If (iv)th wave correction, then a=c comes @ 6142-6089(53); 6131-53=6078 as (iv)th target.
Decisive break of 6078 would confirm a larger correction for the entire rise from 5119-6142.
And Market obliged with a quick, decisive break.
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Similar dilemma today:
Whether 5 waves done from 6142 to 5933 or not?
Make your plans for the day and Keep it as simple & objective as possible.
Remember whenever market does 1,2,(1),(2),(i),(ii) OR (iii),(iv),(3),(4),3,4, it calls for extreme patience & alertness.
We outlined on Friday:
1. It is possible that a 5 wave got completed at a truncated 5938.75 at 2.00PM.
In that case an "abc" bounce is likely.
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"abc" could continue towards 6032-55; Gets negated above 6091.
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2. If we consider it as 3 wave fall, flat corrections would trade in a broader range of 5900 to 6150.
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Above 6150, break out; Below 5900, Flat gets negated.
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3. The 4th wave of the fall from 6142 is still continuing...
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Above "6030", we would negate this view.
September 20, 2013 at 3:23 PM
If 4th started from 5933 as a flat correction:
 4.a=5933-6016
4.b=6016-5939
4.c= normally equals a; hence-5939+83=6022.
I applied a filter of MHEma(6029). Such excesses happen.
Now if it opens above 6033 on Monday, 4th is negated.
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EW usage for trading will be highly effective ONLY if you learn to identify Forms of waves.
(Shapes each wave is likely to take. Only more exposure would make it possible).
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Thursday, April 18, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

There were many challenges while marking these sub-waves in a 2 minute chart.
Major one being "Remaining objective". Combining regular TA kept affirming to stay the course.
Though 3.1 started impulsively, the 3.3 was testing our patience.
Only the 1st wave unfolded remarkably with a text book characteristics but the atmosphere, then, was bearish. Only when the "Flat correction" of wave 2 unfolded, again in classic text book style and withstood the "Global sell off" that one could be sure of a big reversal and JNSAR triggered within 8 points of the opening on 16th April.
As more people know of things, it becomes a challenging task.
A new high today should complete a 5 wave move (A/1st wave) and a correction should hold around 5660 into next week.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Our preferred view has been:
Nifty has been attempting to find a bottom in the earlier consolidation zone of 5042-96 and its daily TA is poised at a critical point where reversal or a resumption of downward momentum is possible.
Our preferred view has been one of consolidation ending @ 5042-96 (or in some extreme bearishness to 4991-61.8% retrace of 4770 to 5349 below which deeper falls likely).
EW points to extreme points to take action....Doubters have no place in such a situation.(Once a plan is in place based on the study, you must follow it if you believe in it....I can't risk your money but my studies are quite objective)
"5094", the Thursday intraday support (Now DLEma)before the break down would be a decider for the day.
A close above 5106/5113 would be preferable for a reversal signal..

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Nifty breaks out of yet another consolidation.

Any kind of study, if applied appropriately & discretely, will produce excellent results.
We have in the recent past spotted a "Falling wedge" to identify a ST bottom along with TT's MLEma & EW.
We identified an "Ascending triangle" for a likely target of 5336 sometime ago.
We identified a "Rising wedge" two weeks ago and this morning, using SAN's chart, relabelled to identify the "Day's upmove targeting towards 5375 ."
Identifying a "Developing pattern" requires not just patience but "balance of views" derived from various studies which would give credence to such a formation.
Patterns do fail at times. Make your journey with them as long as they hold their promises.

EW continues to guide me like it did today...like it did on innumerable occasions.
How could one abandon it?
If you err in your EW study, don't blame the study. Find the truth...that how you missed reading it in the first place. And if you find reading it tough, why not shift to something that is comfortable to you.
I must recollect here and emphasize that "Trading is quite personal". Master your trade whether you use
"SAR", "EW", TA" & so on.
I have seen the "Overflowing doubts" on following the simple "SAR method" here..!!! So why blame anyone for EW?
Take the wheel and mind the road...for a safe journey.

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....