Thursday, September 30, 2010

Nifty may be developing an ascending triangle as BN did.

Nifty traded well within the planned trading range for the day. If it is a counter rally for the fall, it should limit itself within 6050-6070. Nifty just managed to keep its head above 5-sma. If follow up action fails, it may move back to 5960 again.
I will update in details in PreMarket View.
An ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout. On the ascending triangle, the horizontal line represents overhead supply that prevents the Index from moving past a certain level. It is as if a large sell order has been placed at this level and it takes time, thus preventing the price from rising further. Even though the price cannot rise past this level, the reaction lows continue to rise. It is these higher lows that indicate increased buying pressure and give the ascending triangle its bullish bias.

Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View

Weekly Pivot Trading has worked amazingly on most occasions especially when the markets make big moves.
This week too, Nifty got resisted @ the first resistance(6075) and has taken support yesterday @ weekly pivot @5980.
Today being the "settlement day, most of the action would be centered around the psychological "6000".
Most part of yesterday had a resistance @ 6020 before Nifty fell deeper to 5980.
Above 6020,the much traded zone of 6040/45(DHEma) would be a resistance and below 5980, Low ema @ 5965-5970 & S1@5957.
In sum, the tradeable range is likely to be 5960/5980 -- 6020/6040. Trade light.
Volatility range is @ (s2)5925 to 6060(R1).
I will be available only for intraday updates... Share your thoughts responsibly.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Nifty gives the bear candle & closes below 5ema.



Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

A good "Bear trade" would have been possible in the first hour as per our plan.
Nifty is still within the rising wedge channel..(Till 6000+/-5).
Tough part is ahead of us for quite some time(2-3 hours).
Trade light.

Nifty PreMarket View

Such a huge upmove generally do not end with a small 5th wave and the 5th wave did not show clear 5 sub-waves which make us look at other possibilities. The more logical one could be an ending diagonal which generally follows sharp impulsive upmoves such as the one Nifty had in its 3rd wave from 5474 to 6038. Today's price move may have more clues to it. I have shown the likely path and if they match, the plan is in place.


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Nifty bounces off 5-ema but closes below High ema.

There are many possibilities at this juncture to play the short term.
5th wave of 3rd has ended and the larger 4th wave has started likely to last a month.
5th wave of 3rd may unfold as an ending diagonal which generally happens after big rises.
4th wave of 3rd still continues with an irregular top made @ 6074 and a 5th may unfold.

Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I

There is a minor +ve div in the intra charts.
Our trade levels coincided with the lows.
Go with this flow and then review after 30-45minutes.

Nifty PreMarket View

Thank you, VIREN for those MP Values inspite of your hectic preparations to provide unique quality services to your clients.
Is the 5th wave over?
Is there a one more high possible.?
Is it just the 1st wave of this terminal 5th wave.?
TA shows negative divergences, inverted bearish hammer both of which requires confirmation with a follow up confirmations. On their own, they suggest certain possibilities. But prices need to confirm. Under such circumstances, whatever we attempt to do against the current uptrend should be treated as "aggressive & risky" & should be managed with strict stop loss.
It is easy to play the trending moves. Once a topping/ bottoming is near or a consolidation/ distribution is on, search for those critical levels of supports & resistances and play it within that light till clarity emerges.
U.K.Raj seems to be gaining on confidence because he has found a method & "sticks" to it and the method brings him success as long as he follows. He will need more time to cement his success.
Best wishes to you.



Monday, September 27, 2010

Nifty's double negative divergence & a bearish inverted hammer.

The bearish inverted hammer has a typically bearish appearance, but it can have multiple predictions for the future depending on what precedes and follows this candlestick pattern.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty PreMarket View

A minimum target expected for this 5th wave is 6098 based on 1st wave equality. However, having had an extended 3rd wave, the 5th could have surprises in store too.


Saturday, September 25, 2010

Thank God For The Tatas

We have more to be proud off than what the Infosys and Wipro's of India provide..........I visited Jamshedpur over the weekend to see for myself an India that is fast disappearing despite all the wolf-cries of people like Narayanamurthy and his ilk.

It is one thing to talk and quite another to do and I am delighted to tell you that Ratan Tata has kept alive the legacy of perhaps India's finest industrialist J.N. Tata.

Something that some people doubted when Ratan took over the House of the Tata's but in hindsight, the best thing to have happened to the Tata's is unquestionably Ratan.

I was amazed to see the extent of corporate philanthropy and this is no exaggeration.

Letting go to let it all in.

The cheerful girl with bouncy golden curls was almost five. Waiting with her mother at the checkout stand, she saw them: a circle of glistening white pearls in a pink foil box.

"Oh please, Mommy. Can I have them? Please, Mommy, please?" Quickly the mother checked the back of the little foil box and then looked back into the pleading blue eyes of her little girl's upturned face. "A dollar ninety-five. That's almost $2.00. If you really want them, I'll think of some extra chores for you and in no time you can save enough money to buy them for yourself. Your birthday's only a week away and you might get another crisp dollar bill from Grandma."

As soon as Jenny got home, she emptied her penny bank and counted out 17 pennies. After dinner, she did more than her share of chores and she went to the neighbor and asked Mrs. McJames if she could pick dandelions for ten cents.

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....