Nifty still in "B" up

The slow nature of this irregular correction to the upmove from 3790 to 4534 is what we have seen in August(a. Fall to 4159; b. a rise to 4638; c.fall to 4203, completing an "abc" called the "B" of the Larger "B" up).

The earlier post clearly stated the uncertainity during this upmove which is typical of "B" waves. Let us remember the same till market states otherwise.It is also possible for this B of "B" to spend more time before rallying up.



Breakout (4500) & Break down (4160) levels are clearly marked as per the daily log chart.

Nifty Reversing..

Weekly 9-Rsi has shown a break out..14-Rsi needs to confirm that. Market's ability to stay above 4370 & scale 4448 will confirm such a possibility.



Nifty's fall was overdone due to the settlement day unwinding, reflected in the positive divergences.There is a minor negative divergence in 5-minute charts.Buy on dips closer to 4300 - 4325 levels..



Data charts should be of help for supports & Resistances..



I must post more over weekend as we are at a very critical juncture..Any clues to support either moves may be pooled in to take a collective wise decision.

Nifty's amazing Channels

As per this chart, the likely channel bottom & tops are 4260 & 4448.As 5-Minutes had negative divergence, US Mkts also down, we might trade towards the gap at 4273 or thereabouts(4325-4290) and if 4260 holds we are likely to see a rally up towards 4445.

Trading Ideas - 1

AN INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
Investors profit by recognizing new trends in the economy and buying into them before the majority wakes up to opportunities. A knowledgeable investor can earn huge percentage gains by holding his position without being terribly active.Investing requires a great deal of patienceand an immense supply of self-confidence. To buy Chrysler after it was rescued from the brink of bankruptcy or Internet search engines before anyone knew what those words meant, you had to have a huge level of confidence in your ability to read the trends in society and the economy.All of us are smart after the fact; very few are smart early in the game, and only the tiniest percentage has the emotional strength to make a large bet on their vision and hold on to it. Those who can do this consistently,like Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch, are hailed as Superstars.

AN INTELLIGENT TRADER
Traders make money by betting on short-term price swings. The idea is to buy when our reading of the market tells us prices are rising and sell when the uptrend runs out of steam. Alternatively, we can bet on a decline and sell short when our analysis points to a downtrend, covering when the downtrend starts bottoming out. The concept is simple,but implementing it is difficult.Beginners often assume they can make money because they’re smart,computer-literate and have a record of success in business. You can get a fast computer and even buy a back tested system from a vendor, but putting money on it is like trying to sit on a three-legged stool with two legs missing. The two other factors are psychology and money management.
Balancing your mind is just as important as analyzing markets. Your personality influences your perceptions, making it a key aspect of your success or failure. Managing money in your trading account is essential for surviving the inevitable draw downs and prospering in the long run.Psychology, market analysis, and money management—you have to master all three to become a success.counter trend strategy. It involves betting against the deviations and for a return to normalcy. Countertrend traders sell short when an upside breakout starts running out of speed and cover when a downtrend starts petering out. Beginners love to trade against trends (“let’s buy, this market can’t go any lower!”), but most get impaled on a price spike that fails to reverse. A man who likes peeing against the wind has no right to complain about his cleaning bills. Professionals can trade against trends only because they are ready to run at the first sign of trouble. Before you bet on a reversal, be sure your exit strategy and money management are fine-tuned.

Nifty breaks down..

Though Nifty has broken down through that critical support at 4283, the hourly oversold situation may give rise to a bounce.It has held another critical level of 4200. Quality of the bounce need to be observed. Though the trend is DOWN and we need to wait to see Friday's price behaviour as "Settlement day" action in terms of price & volume are prejudiced due to position closure.If 4200 or 4160 is held for two days & market moves above 4350 & closes atleast above 4300, all is not lost.However, we will remind ourselves that the trend is down and watch these levels for the next two days.



If there is a bounce, Overhead resistances at 4270 , 4291. Supports are 4190, 4160.

Trading ideas

Excerpts from "Come into my trading room" - Alexander Elder.(I intend to post some regularly)

To succeed in trading you need several innate traits without which you shouldn’t even start. They include discipline, risk tolerance, and facility with numbers. A big fat guy who is often drunk and can’t kick a cigarette habit is unlikely to make a good trader—he lacks discipline.A nitpicker who obsesses over each dime is too tense to live with market risks. A daydreamer who cannot do simple arithmetic on the run becomes lost when prices change rapidly.In addition to discipline, risk tolerance, and ease with numbers, successful trading requires 3 M’s—Mind, Method, and Money. Mind means developing psychological rules that will keep you calm amidst the noise of the markets. Method is a system of analyzing prices and developing a decision-making tree. Money refers to money management, which means risking only a small part of your trading capital on any trade; think of the way a submarine is divided into many compartments so that it won’t sink if one section becomes flooded—you have to structure your account this way. Psychology, trading tactics, money management—you can learn these skills.

You can succeed in trading. It has been done before, and it’s being done right now, today, by people who started from scratch, learned to trade and are making a good living at it. The best ones make fortunes. Others fail, out of ignorance or lack of discipline.

Trading is a journey of self-discovery. If you enjoy learning, if you are not scared of risk, if the rewards appeal to you, if you are prepared to put in the work, you have a great project ahead of you. You will work hard and enjoy the discoveries you’ll make along the way.I wish you success. Now let us begin.

Nifty weakens..

Nifty breaks the 2 day lows.Technical indicators showing inherent weakness.Scale is tilting in favour of bears.Only a trade & Close above 4340 can save the bulls from the bears..Last supports at 4270 & 4248 & 4160. Till then trend continues to be down.



Every attempt by the bulls to move up meets with various resistances.If 4270 holds, bulls may attempt a comeback..You can only trade these markets with hourly technicals as per the data shown below:(Since 11.00AM, the momentum data favoured bears only)



Good Luck to all..

Nifty's Moves ahead...

NIFTY Struggles!

Nifty is sandwiched between 50DMA(4270) on the downside & 5, 10, 20 DMA (4400) on the upside. It has tested the downside twice, might try to attempt the upside.



If you have the time, watch the data & trade those points. OR Wait on the sidelines and look out for a decisive breakout signal.



As we have observed in our weekend study, buying emerged below 4325.What unfolds in the remaining 3 days will give us the direction. Just WAIT..

Nifty's pause prolongs !

Market did rally to 4385 above but very briefly and spent most of the day trending down(Daily clearly down since 4650 top). Volumes have dried up totally..Hourly which had turned up on Friday morning has turned down once again this afternoon. As long as 4270 - 4250 holds, a reversal chance is still alive. Market is not giving away much..



Market can test our patience by trading in another narrow range tomorrow..Only a close above 4360 & a subsequent move above 4395 & 4435 will bring back momentum..



A reminder of the monthly moves..Last month's close was 4330. We have been stuck here now. Only 4 days left for the month close..The low of the month - 4235 & the high - 4650..We are at the lower range of the month & a high possibility of making another monthly low is a possibility unless it reverses from here quickly..

Holy Grail

I was frantic in my search for a "Holy Grail" during my initial years, trying to find newer methods which would work effectively for a short period but would fail as the market dynamics changed.Inspite of learning my lessons, when I stumbled upon Elliot waves , I thought I finally found it, only to fail once again. There is nothing wrong with elliot waves but it is not the one, for that matter there is nothing out there which can unfailingly give you the way. Inspite of the advice from many Market wizards, I had to travel my miles before the wisdom dawned on me.

But the excitement never dies down and it shows its distracting ugly head now & then and shakes you off your course.So what should anyone do? Just keep following your methods that have been successful for you with steadfastness & Consistency. As an expert driver navigates the vehicle in the congested roads, be alert, fully conscious and in the NOW, always prepared to act. We are not daily wage earners that we have to trade everyday..I remember the famous Ramayan scene in which Lord Ram tells Ravan in the battlefield, "Go back today & Come tomorrow.." Ravan accepts it...his intention is " Live another day to fight another day".So let us not burn up our capital trading the small moves.It might be boring but will make you richer.

Nifty-Critical Data

NIFTY to Settlement

The range thus far in this month is 4235 to 4635 and there was selling above 4525 and buying below 4325 and will we be in the range of 4325 to 4525 in the remaining 4 days to settlement ??. It is a possibility..



I have given two possibilities here. We will take one step at a time as the prices unfold & the technicals change with each day & hour.
Bullish:- Rally past 4435, break above the channel, head towards 4535 and later on to 4720..
Bearish:- Bounce upto 4385 to 4435 levels, reversing down from there, break below 4248, head to sub 4000 levels..



The positive divergences has arrested this fall now. If 4248 is not broken in the next 2 - 3 days , then our earlier view of making a high above 4638 gets a chance. However, if the low of 4248 is broken, a huge fall to sub 4000 levels may be seen.



The positive divergences in the hourly has taken effect to prices & they manage to touch the 3 Day ema. If world markets are positive, they will attempt 4365 (5 DMA) and may rally higher to 4410 (10 DMA)..Critical levels to watch is 4435.

Trader Vs Racer

People who bet on horses do it for the horse to win.The bookmakers make all the money as out of 10 bets, only one is on a winning horse but the rest are on the losers.In stock markets, the bulls take the stock up very patiently over a period of time.(Visualise the "Slide" in a children's Park..and the child is climbing the steps slow & steadily to the top of the ladder but comes down the slide fast..)..And the bears come crashing into the party and in no time take away a huge sum. What the bulls made in a years time, the bear will make it in a month's time.The smart bulls take the money off the market periodically..Ofcourse, the bears make it possible to pick up gems in such a falling market at throw away prices..

Nifty Weakens...

Instead of a rally, Market gapped down and broke the 4390 levels mentioned earlier and the trend has changed from Neutral to Down again.The quality of bounce, if there is one due to very short term +ve divergences, will determine the seriousness of the Down move.



Daily close price came very close to 5DMA yesterday and has fallen today with force that it didn't acknowledge the presence of 50DMA at 4285 and closed below it after breaking the 14.RSI trendline & falling below 50 mark.Besides the 12 day roc has gone into negative zone.I wonder whether this market will halt at 4160 now! A gap down will lead to newer lows below 3790.



Markets attempt to have a positive weekly close has been cut short with a feeble attempt yesterday. Friday's action will confirm the weekly trend turning down.The brief break of the channel at 4638 is to be viewed as the 4th wave as 4th waves generally break the trendline(OR a,b,c,d wave and the "e" down is on OR ABC-x-AB over C is on..)

Nifty paused for a Rally..

Nifty paused in the range of 4385 to 4435 falling towards the last hour due to negative divergences in the 5 minute technicals. Hourly is in uptrend. Daily will move into upmode on a close above 4445.Today the market attempted last week's close of 4431. If the market holds the 4390 level tomorrow and clear 4447, then a rally to the first resistance zone of 4490 is likely to happen. The irregular "abc" correction after the move from 4316 to 4416 denotes bullish moves ahead.

Nifty Reversed..?

The Major advantage of Elliot wave is the road map it offers with its internal structure. My experience in Technical analysis made it possible to read these charts more effectively.To me, they(TA & EW) are like a couple. I don't want the curse of their separation.Tech..was at the bottom & the wave completion gives you the conviction to go long when the market is in red.And I remembered last month's close 4313.(The alternative scenario is that we have done only the 4 th up of this wave down and we may complete the 5th down tomorrow at or below 4316)



The Risk reward ratio is stacked in favour of the bulls now. If the world markets are flat to down tomorrow, the buying opportunity will be good.Today, the Market volume was the lowest in many days.Last 2 hours, the volume was good.Will look for more volume confirmation for the reversal.If indeed the reversal takes place from 4285 to 4310 levels , The "b" (or the 2nd) correction was a irregular one which will imply a more bullish moves ahead.So lets keep the fingers crossed for the follow up confirmation.

Nifty in Channel

Nifty is moving down in a channel. Break of today's low at 4380 will result in a fall towards 4275 to 4310 levels. Any rally at this juncture may get resisted at 4435 -4485 levels(If there is a global help in the morning).Volume has been declining with fall in prices suggesting a consolidation during an uptrend. Will continue to watch the volumes. Will remember last month's close at 4313 and this month's low at 4235.

Incredible India

This is a Sensex chart with "Money flow Index" showing a strong support for sensex at 14000. The corresponding supports for Nifty is around 4200.

Nifty's 5-Min

Current downtrend(Presently looking like a short term one)is likely to target 4200 odd levels. With a minor positive divergence in 5- Minute charts, it is likely to bounce from lower levels(4380 to 4420)to higher levels (4485 to 4520)and then head lower.

Nifty Downwards..

If we are correcting the 6357 - 3790 - Fall, then we should halt around 4250 preferably or 4160 levels and rally again.Next two weeks will give us those clues.Will remember last month's close at 4313 and this month's low at 4235.



As the 5DMA cuts below the 10DMA(4510), a bounce is likely to 10DMA. Then, the fall to resume towards 50DMA(4250) for rallying support.



As the Channel is broken decisively, sell on rises till we see positive divergences developing in hourly charts.If one has the patience, play only "DIVERGENCES" and make relatively risk free money as the divergences emerge on the charts when excesses happen to the indices or stocks.They display / capture the fear / greed factors very effectively.



As my critic always say, " When you follow the Market using Elliot wave or Technical analysis, you come across two or three possibilities. But take that one which came instantly and easily to you and most often that is the correct one. Don't try too hard". So, Easy does it..

Nifty to Gap Dn...

Technically the set up is ready for a journey down.Enjoy the ride. It is good for the market and for all our wealth..I saw a chart on "Sunil's Site" today and you will agree with me if you see the same. How a one way journey can get aborted and how many gets seriously hurt. Look at China's index.. from 1500 odd went up to 6000 plus in a jiffy and now back to 2400 and still not finding strength.The real buying should be done when we see positive divergences in oscillators when the prices keep getting lower.Till then lets have patience and protect our capital. Trade if you can..( I do miss Manoj's blog, and Lee's comes once a week only...Busy people!And thank God for Sunil's inputs..)

Two Views on Nifty

I am reproducing here the different views expressed by my critics.Their contention is that only hourly divergences are getting corrected.Weekly & Daily trend is intact.



Fall below 4464 will lead to more weakness & slide to 4160 - 4200.

Trader's Mind..

I have known many traders (Businessmen who trade in goods) for years and it dawned on me very recently the stark difference between them and the Stock market traders.
Business traders do not talk about their daily/monthly earnings, they don't do any adventurous things, they just do the same simple things that fetched them money day in & day out. Their consistency and steadfastness is amazing. I grew up in one such family and I have seen their stability to wait through their lean period and quietly take advantage of the busy season. Their preparedness is unparalleled.In stock markets, traders have a compulsive need to talk about their daily adventures, they need to discover or invent newer methods to figure out the market/ stock movements. Of course, there are traders in stock markets who are very consistent (One trader in Bombay traded only in "ACC" all his life) but they are few.I have come across so many good blogs with such simple but very accurate analysis of the markets with enough directions for anyone willing to apply themselves in the market to make money.Just reading the write ups alone will not fetch the money. You have to develop the conviction to believe in them for which one needs to do his own homework of following up on all that is read and all that happened subsequently. Like "Osho" said, "don't believe it as truth just because I said so. Believe it only when you feel that it is the truth".When my friend/Critic was struggling with the markets, he sat through days and nights and analysed a simple method of trading with Macd(Which has already been analysed and implemented by many)and convinced himself that an application of macd is possible to make consistent money in the market and only then did he venture out to trade and never wavered from that simple approach. Later on he studied wave principle when he was convalesing and applied the simple fibonacci retracements to his trading with amazing results.I want to highlight here his determination, not accepting anything at face value and staying focused on a job(Go deeper and not wider).I am sure everyone can find his method that is suitable for his temperament and needs.

NIFTY HALTS !

Overextended Nifty halts. Channel broken in F&O. Many individual weak stocks has broken the channel(See Sunil's blog)which will lead the index downwards(Rats leaving the sinking ship first!).Our cry for a halt finally came after changing the bear into a bull..Sell at higher levels (4560 to 4590)..Minor supports will be at 4505 , 4484. A daily close below 4540 can lead to 4464. Break of 4464 will set up a bigger fall.


Rise in Volume indicates "Exit at higher levels".

NIFTY v/s Stocks

After studying some stocks, I have posted this above chart. You may view those charts in my other blog.

NIFTY IN "B"

In its larger "B" up, Nifty's intra corrections are difficult to decipher.Negative divergences continue but weakness is not visible in prices. Momentum indicating 5day high ema is at 4567 & hourly high ema at 4611 & are rising by day & hour.If the markets stalls near 4660-4680 levels, it can weaken . So wait till it trades below high emas. Till then trade the levels - Resistance 4660 - 4680 & Supports 4590-4580. As the market paused at 50DMA & rallied, it has paused at 100 DMA and now rallying. These are only for very short term traders but the medium trend is very much intact & up. All the best.

Incredibly Consistent Chart

The Consistency in these charts are based on the "Money flow" in to these markets. It implies that we should be breaking out of the 4467 - 4616 range (Aided by world markets) and head higher towards 4780 for the month. Corrections so far have been brief and market has managed to stay above the 5DMA since the 3790 bottom. There is a possibility of our markets taking a breather at 4616 levels, consolidate and then head higher. This is what the market says thus far..

Nifty for a week

Shooting stars have been countered by a "Hammer" by the bulls on Friday.Nifty is moving up with periodic corrections within the channel since 3790 bottom. A couple of possibilities are shown in the charts. Volume has been subdued since "4616".The short term weakness was arrested on Fri with Nifty taking a support at 5 week high ema(4470).Hourly candle charts show periodic corrections(Timewise) and short rallies.Move above 4580 will target 4620 to 4635.Move above 4620-4635 will target 4700.Reaching either of this targets, another round of consolidation will be on.With every passing day, the support levels have been moving up and the weekly technicals have been improving.We have a 4-day trading next week. Will post more during the weekend.

Nifty's Shooting Stars...

Two shooting stars !! No good..Let us see whether our market holds above 4440(Conservative). For aggressive traders , break of 4494 will be enough to go short..Hourly RSI has broken down..Now to follow it up with price behaviour tomorrow. Last week's close 4413.Will the weekly throw up a shooting star? Season of shooting stars..Like we had a season of "Island reversals". In a bull market, market can keep climbing higher even with the oscillators in overbought area for longer period. But in a bear market, that too with negative divergences, it doesn't reward you in such a set up. Allow the bears & bulls to fight it out...allow the market to find its depth..More upsides will only make life miscerable for bulls...I guess they never learn their lessons..And the bears have it good..that too in such quick fashion...To end it..Market's last hope for short term upside is holding above 4440 & preferably reversing from 4475..Or else we are looking for 4160 - 4200 levels as posted yesterday..Good Luck to all..

Nifty Halts..

Is it a halt ? Evidences in short term indicates fatigue (Negative divergences). May not fall like a water fall..but selling can be expected at higher levels..
1)Daily stochastics has turned down. Daily ist target of 100 DMA (4615) reached.
2)Hourly Roc, Macd, Rsi are showing negative divergences and trading below hourly high/low ema
These negative divergences has not yet taken effect in prices.

And market has not given a decisive sell in the Daily. So Nifty can take immediate supports at about 4494 or 4475 and bounce intraday in search of continued buyers and may meet resistances at higher levels. Only a close below 4450 will trigger a sell in daily.The trading range can be 4475 to 4590.Keep booking profits.