Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Nifty PreMarket View
Staying above 5354-WEma, Nifty is poised to continue its corrective upmove towards 34Hr Sma and to WHEma. Any intraday weakness would develop around that zone only. If that resistance is cleared, then 5484++ is the next hurdle.(5449-50%;5492-61.8% of 5630 to 5268)
Aggressive traders may use 21Hr sma for strength for the day.
Being the last day of the month, "5401-defending" may come into play.
Aggressive traders may use 21Hr sma for strength for the day.
Being the last day of the month, "5401-defending" may come into play.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Nifty PreMarket View
First sign of "intraday strength" is a move above HLEma:5302, followed by Day Pivot:5332.
Having broken below earlier consolidation support @ 5352-92, it reached the next consolidation cluster @ 5250-5288 zone.(5358:50%; 5379:61.8% of yesterday's fall)
If holds above this zone of 5250-5288, it would attempt to move past 5352-92(WEma:5354; MHEma:5406).
As repeated earlier, close above LEma would signal a pause in the correction.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Nifty PreMarket View
A normal correction would pause around 20sma-5385-5395 zone, makes a bounce/ retracing moves and continue the correction, the depth of which would be known based on the retracing move.
If no new low is made in the opening session, retracing is on.
If pivot,5452, is surpassed, larger retracing is on.
Corrections have many faces. When clarity is there, trading is fun and rewarding.
And when clarity is less, seek refugee in the "support/ resistances" and take action based on intra TA with small SL.
The last consolidating zone @ 5352-92 is the support zone & 20 Sma-5395.
Similarly the last distributing zone is 5484-5521 & Wk.Pivot @ 5488.
Query of a reader: Right now what i am seeing is that weekly is giving a sell in most of the stocks and nifty. Along that there is a probability that after a day or so stocs will give a buy on daily time frame but may remain in sell mode on weekly. In your experience how have the markets behaved under such conditions... Are they good for positional trades on daily time frame?
Answer:Week TA is in OB zone for 2 weeks and index momentum too has shown slowing down. This coupled with Day TA developing -ve div @ OB zone has led to the current fall.
If we see a +ve div at OS zone in Hour TA would be a reliable signal for playing longs.
TT has clearly shown "loss of momentum" with a close below HEmas of week/ Day & Hour.
Now it is the "closing above of DLEma" which would suggest a "pause in downward correction".
The remaining 3 days of the month: a close above 5401 would suggest of "return of upward momentum" in the month T/F. And then after another 2 days, a close above 5354-WEma would keep the weekly uptrend intact.
For our trading, the immediate concern is of Week/ Day & Hour. Since week's upward momentum is down and price is falling based on Day TA, look for day T/F to arrest this fall with a close above DLEma for positional trades which could be further fine tuned with Hour TA.
Best wishes.
ilango.
If no new low is made in the opening session, retracing is on.
If pivot,5452, is surpassed, larger retracing is on.
Corrections have many faces. When clarity is there, trading is fun and rewarding.
And when clarity is less, seek refugee in the "support/ resistances" and take action based on intra TA with small SL.
The last consolidating zone @ 5352-92 is the support zone & 20 Sma-5395.
Similarly the last distributing zone is 5484-5521 & Wk.Pivot @ 5488.
Query of a reader: Right now what i am seeing is that weekly is giving a sell in most of the stocks and nifty. Along that there is a probability that after a day or so stocs will give a buy on daily time frame but may remain in sell mode on weekly. In your experience how have the markets behaved under such conditions... Are they good for positional trades on daily time frame?
Answer:Week TA is in OB zone for 2 weeks and index momentum too has shown slowing down. This coupled with Day TA developing -ve div @ OB zone has led to the current fall.
If we see a +ve div at OS zone in Hour TA would be a reliable signal for playing longs.
TT has clearly shown "loss of momentum" with a close below HEmas of week/ Day & Hour.
Now it is the "closing above of DLEma" which would suggest a "pause in downward correction".
The remaining 3 days of the month: a close above 5401 would suggest of "return of upward momentum" in the month T/F. And then after another 2 days, a close above 5354-WEma would keep the weekly uptrend intact.
For our trading, the immediate concern is of Week/ Day & Hour. Since week's upward momentum is down and price is falling based on Day TA, look for day T/F to arrest this fall with a close above DLEma for positional trades which could be further fine tuned with Hour TA.
Best wishes.
ilango.
Nifty PreMarket View
A normal correction would pause around 20sma-5385-5395 zone, makes a bounce/ retracing moves and continue the correction, the depth of which would be known based on the retracing move.
If no new low is made in the opening session, retracing is on.
If pivot,5452, is surpassed, larger retracing is on.
Corrections have many faces. When clarity is there, trading is fun and rewarding.
And when clarity is less, seek refugee in the "support/ resistances" and take action based on intra TA with small SL.
The last consolidating zone @ 5352-92 is the support zone & 20 Sma-5395.
Similarly the last distributing zone is 5484-5521 & Wk.Pivot @ 5488.
If no new low is made in the opening session, retracing is on.
If pivot,5452, is surpassed, larger retracing is on.
Corrections have many faces. When clarity is there, trading is fun and rewarding.
And when clarity is less, seek refugee in the "support/ resistances" and take action based on intra TA with small SL.
The last consolidating zone @ 5352-92 is the support zone & 20 Sma-5395.
Similarly the last distributing zone is 5484-5521 & Wk.Pivot @ 5488.
Query of a reader: Right now what i am seeing is that weekly is giving a sell in most of the stocks and nifty. Along that there is a probability that after a day or so stocs will give a buy on daily time frame but may remain in sell mode on weekly. In your experience how have the markets behaved under such conditions... Are they good for positional trades on daily time frame?
Answer:Week TA is in OB zone for 2 weeks and index momentum too has shown slowing down. This coupled with Day TA developing -ve div @ OB zone has led to the current fall.
If we see a +ve div at OS zone in Hour TA would be a reliable signal for playing longs.
TT has clearly shown "loss of momentum" with a close below HEmas of week/ Day & Hour.
Now it is the "closing above of DLEma" which would suggest a "pause in downward correction".
The remaining 3 days of the month: a close above 5401 would suggest of "return of upward momentum" in the month T/F. And then after another 2 days, a close above 5354-WEma would keep the weekly uptrend intact.
For our trading, the immediate concern is of Week/ Day & Hour. Since week's upward momentum is down and price is falling based on Day TA, look for day T/F to arrest this fall with a close above DLEma for positional trades which could be further fine tuned with Hour TA.
Best wishes.
ilango
Saturday, February 25, 2012
It's Baeutiful..!!
Do you remember the name of your kindergarden teacher? I do, mine.
Her name was Mrs.White.
I don't remember much about what we learned in her class, but my mother once told me that we used to write a lot. And I would bring back what I wrote and she would look at it and see there were so many mistakes.
But no red corrections. And always a star. Sometimes even a Good! scrawled in that would make my heart soar with happiness.
But it worried my mother, so one day when she went in to meet Mrs White for one of those Parent-Teacher meetings, she asked her why she never corrected my mistakes. Why she never red-pencilled in the right spellings of words or pointed out grammatical errors.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Nifty reaches the channel bottom to seek the support of 20sma.
Nifty week's candle- Dark Cloud Cover: Refer the TA file- 1. JustNifty TA(27th Feb)
Nifty PreMarket View
There are few possibilities: 
Minor "v" of the "1st/ a" wave ends at open with a new low (ORB Handy)and a corrective "abc" unfolds most part of the day & resume a reversal, the range being 5445/55(S1) to 5540/50.
Minor "v" done at 5461 yesterday and "b" of "abc" in progress to be followed by a "c" towards above 5537 @ 5540/5550 and reverses down.
These two views get rejected above "5550"(21/34Hr Sma) or 5561(Weekly Open).
If weakness continues unable to move past 5525-30(R1), gap filling will emerge towards 5428.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Nifty makes a "Pause" pattern after an impulsive move down..
Congratulations to Sujatha for guessing the settlement day's close quite accurately.
Her reasons:5480 is weekly 50% FIBO. 5484 is good support line as per 30 min chart(nearly 10 days) 5494 is WEEKLY CAM L3.
Congrats to dare..expiry @5485 reasons are:
1. In jan expiry, nifty 1 day before expiry i.e.24th jan nifty movement was of 90+ point (high low diff)and on expiry day it was just 45 point. and closed near average of high low ie.5158.30
2.So this time yesterday it given movement of 139 points so today expecting movement of 70 points from high ie.upto 5450 and so average of 5520 and 5450 comes@5485
Congrats to DZIRE ...Expiry will be around 5487. Bulls will still protect NIFTY from giving a close below DLEMA.
Congrats to dare..expiry @5485 reasons are:
1. In jan expiry, nifty 1 day before expiry i.e.24th jan nifty movement was of 90+ point (high low diff)and on expiry day it was just 45 point. and closed near average of high low ie.5158.30
2.So this time yesterday it given movement of 139 points so today expecting movement of 70 points from high ie.upto 5450 and so average of 5520 and 5450 comes@5485
Congrats to DZIRE ...Expiry will be around 5487. Bulls will still protect NIFTY from giving a close below DLEMA.
And our gratitude to Dinesh Rishi for conducting and to all participants for having shed their inhibitions and dared to predict..
Nifty PreMarket View
Breaching "5573" would indicate the green label in action.
Being resisted around the pivot-5545 & upto 5570 and reversing down would suggest the red label in action.
Being resisted around the pivot-5545 & upto 5570 and reversing down would suggest the red label in action.
First part of the day would have the bounce for the 3rd wave of 5606-5491..61.8% @ 5562.
Jiignesh communicated his absence for the settlement day and requested "Dinesh Rishi" to conduct "The game of Settlement day's close".
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Nifty reverses after reaching Month's R.2 @ 5630 with day -ve div.
This MahaShivratri, we listened to "Jaggi Vasudev's" discourse and he said..
Become shameless to know your true potential. He meant "shed all your inhibitions". You won't find your answers in the I-phone but in the "I" packed with God's software.
Shameless here would mean that you are being yourself and not pretending, you are not ashamed to act the way you want to. Shameless would also mean that you do not react to people's opinions.
When I read some of my readers' mail, I feel sad for all their struggles in this financial jungle. But it is their struggle and they'll come out of this with more objective application. It is their Karma and my Karma is to teach...only that. You'll find it Kid's stuff.
I just shed a bit of my inhibitions to demonstrate how various studies such as EW, OI analysis, Pivot table, ORB, divergences could be applied in real time to make money.
Everyone knows how the accelerator works but only the experienced knows how much to press..when to leave it besides manuevouring with steering wheel.
We did anticipate the end of the 3rd wave and whenever it showed continued strength, we accordingly shifted the labels and we even pinned the "Breakout @ 5415" when Nifty stayed sideways for few days.
This correction has equalled the last fall from 5217 to 5077(140 points).
We do not need to know how far the rise or fall will go but we definitely need to know the direction as well as whether we should be in a trade. Part booking as well as trailing SL would take care of the steady money flow.
Whenever subjective opinions take over your intellect, check the TT and take your trades based on its strength/ weakness.
It pays to remember always that markets are irrational and having accepted that fact, we could study the prices..its patterns to find a method to make some confident trades.
Day chart shows "3/C" being completed and "4/B" wave unfolding..
Become shameless to know your true potential. He meant "shed all your inhibitions". You won't find your answers in the I-phone but in the "I" packed with God's software.
Shameless here would mean that you are being yourself and not pretending, you are not ashamed to act the way you want to. Shameless would also mean that you do not react to people's opinions.
When I read some of my readers' mail, I feel sad for all their struggles in this financial jungle. But it is their struggle and they'll come out of this with more objective application. It is their Karma and my Karma is to teach...only that. You'll find it Kid's stuff.
I just shed a bit of my inhibitions to demonstrate how various studies such as EW, OI analysis, Pivot table, ORB, divergences could be applied in real time to make money.
Everyone knows how the accelerator works but only the experienced knows how much to press..when to leave it besides manuevouring with steering wheel.
We did anticipate the end of the 3rd wave and whenever it showed continued strength, we accordingly shifted the labels and we even pinned the "Breakout @ 5415" when Nifty stayed sideways for few days.
This correction has equalled the last fall from 5217 to 5077(140 points).
We do not need to know how far the rise or fall will go but we definitely need to know the direction as well as whether we should be in a trade. Part booking as well as trailing SL would take care of the steady money flow.
Whenever subjective opinions take over your intellect, check the TT and take your trades based on its strength/ weakness.
It pays to remember always that markets are irrational and having accepted that fact, we could study the prices..its patterns to find a method to make some confident trades.
Day chart shows "3/C" being completed and "4/B" wave unfolding..
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