Saturday, March 30, 2013

You're on your own.

Benjamin Franklin was the youngest son of 17 children. His father was a poor candle-maker. He simply couldn't afford to supply his youngest son with opportunities early in life. So young Franklin had to make them himself.
He had to make his own way in the world.

First, he spent 5 unhappy years toiling as a printing apprentice for his older brother James. Back in those days, printing was hard work. In fact, Young Benjamin lifted hundreds and hundreds of pounds of printing equipment each and every day.
But Franklin wasn't happy. His brother was jealous of his talent and intellect so he repressed and scolded Ben constantly. In frustration and despair, Ben Franklin broke the law of the colonies and...

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Nifty closes the month above MLEma, signalling a continued sideways mode with a long in day.


Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty Pre-Market View.

Nifty has been "consolidating" & breaking down for quite some time now.
One more break down is likely today after the consolidation of Tuesday.
"5583" is a crucial support number closeby.
And there are few crucial numbers in reckoning today being EOW & EOM.
"5642"-MLEma
"5687"-WLEma........or the developing one if new lows are made.
Price structure in "Hour chart" has been converging as in a "Falling wedge" which is ST bullish if 5583 holds, prices bounce back to move past 21 hr sma/ channel resistance.
This does not, in any way, alter the higher T/F bearishness. That would require a close above WEma/ MEma. Until then, sell on rises remain in force.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Nifty has been spending a lot of time @ 5612-32 zone..


Nifty Intraday Update-III




Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I




Nifty Pre-Market View.

Till the downtrend gets exhausted, no number will qualify for key support.
No anlysis is good that does not take into account the "Trend".
There are no supports during downtrend till the trend is spent and
there are no resistances during uptrend till that trend is spent.
There is only one quality a trader must possess in order to make it big..."Being still".
It requires tremendous amount of courage to be still while the trend is on. "Be Still".
The best way to have traded yesterday's market was "Sell on rises" and market gave the perfect entry @ the open at pre-mkt's resistence of 5711-18. Next clear weakness was its inability to hold above 21 Hr sma.
The final confirmation was the break of 80%.
For the day, Only a close above 5677 or 5686 would make the day trend "UP".

Monday, March 25, 2013

Nifty exhibits the power of higher T/F with another "Sell on Rises"...


Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty Pre-Market View.

Appearance of two small falling wedges and the development of a larger falling wedge along with oversold Day, Hour TA along with persistent +ve div in Hour TA suggested closure of Shorts,( to initiate shorts @ higher levels during the bounce/ relief rally).
As long as EOW & EOM generates a new signal (on the 3rd day, the settlement day on 28th Mar), bearish picture remains. ST is likely to turn up, holding above 5641.
5DEma/34 Hr smas would be the immediate resistances.

Saturday, March 23, 2013

The things we take for granted, We can sometimes lose...

After being diagnosed with a bone tumour in his left leg, Albert Espinosa, now an engineer and a popular spanish screenplay writer, then a 14-year-old boy from Barcelona, battled a 3 per cent survival chance with positivity and black humour. A decade in hospital, 83 chemotherapy sessions, and bartering his left leg, lung and a chunk of his liver — all attacked by cancer — left him equipped to write a survival memoir that’s more about life, less about cancer.
Being around the Eggheads (fellow bald teenagers) and hospital staff including a “radiologist with small ears and huge eyebrows” who taught him how to conquer anger, left him with wisdom enough to write The Yellow World (just launched English translation of bestseller El Mundo Amarillo), the book everyone’s talking about.

Friday, March 22, 2013

Nifty Closes below WLEma but manages to stay above 40 Wk.Avg, the last key number for the weekly T/F.

Line chart with Trend Indicator (Macd-Slow)

Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I




Nifty Pre-Market View.

If you are keen to make intraday trading, it is very important for you to assess the likely supports & resistances in a sideways/ Range bound market.
It is also important to know the likely retracing points to initiate "resell in a downtrending" market and "rebuy in an uptrending market".
Till you attain a fair degree of knowledge and discipline to apply that knowledge, you would be better off with your capital "depleted by the unforgiving market".
"Objectivity" is the term grossly underestimated & often ignored by most in relationships, work and in our case... in trading.
If you can be objective enough to follow one study, you would find adding few other studies would not pose a problem "as long as you remain objective". Only when I added Elliott study to my strategies, my understanding of the market became crystal clear. And I kept EW as an "Use & set aside" kind of study and have been using it quite meticulously whenever the need arose. This improved my understanding and application of "Technical Analysis" better.
Your experience could be different; and you must follow the one that gives you a better "strike rate".
But just becos' it hasn't worked for you, you shouldn't pass a "judgement".
Which study hasn't suggested "weakness" in the market..? It is our own opinions of "what the market should do" that keeps us from following the simple message that our studies have shown.
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DLEma/WLEma would be the critical resistances for the day.
200dsma-5614/ Earlier peak @ 5630 are key support levels.
New signal that would emerge would be "a close below or staying above WLEma" that would bring back the downward momentum or keep Nifty in a trading mode..

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Nifty's hour bullishness got sold into by larger T/F downtrend..

Line Chart with Trend Indicator (Macd-Slow)

Nifty Intraday Update-III



Nifty Intraday Update-II



Nifty Intraday Update-I



Nifty Pre-Market View.

A reader asks, "Should we follow so many studies..?".
Life has always been simple. But most have made it complex.
People have made a "dust bin" out of their mind. Instead of continuously emptying it off unwanted things, they have been stuffing it.
What goes for life, goes for trading too.
When you look at a "price chart", it says something very simple at the first glance. That is the truth.
Often, most would stare deeply into it as though to unearth some secret treasure. It is not earth. This price chart is a river...continuously flowing..continuously changing.
It is always moving up on a trendline or in a channel that forms out of the result of "demand and supply tussle" or moving down below a trendline or in a channel. That is the only truth. Even the mighty FIIs toe that line barring a stray audacity.
When you look at the tech,.table(TT), the colours speak just one language. There is no dispute there. If there is any confusion, it is self-created. Change the self. Change your approach to one of "objectivity".
Once done, your trading flourishes...so do your life.
Market dynamics are based on human emotions & their collective behaviours, though unpredictable at times, they fall into a set pattern once settles down.
"Look out for this settling down into a set path (that is called a trend)" and follow it via the TT.
It has always been simple. Keep it that way for everyone's sake.

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....