Nifty Intraday Update-I

For a person who trades based on just the JNSAR number, the JNSAR for 11th was "5720" and it triggered only @ 3.29PM and hence the close can not be above it. And the JNSAR shorts would have remained and it will have the JNSAR trigger for the day @ 5714.
Since I had a bullish view in the ST & have been suggesting a reversal from either Thu/Fri around the 1st major support @ 5640 and a reversal did take place, I took 12th JNSAR after 3.00PM & taken a long trade.
The conservative trade SL@5655(80% of the rise from 5637 to 5721) protected & Nifty took support @ 5659(73.6%) due to adverse Infy news(Note BN did not have such a sharp fall).
There are two options here:
A. Reverse the trade @ 5694 with a SAR @ 5714.
B. Hold the long trade with 5682(21 Hr sma as SL for an hour & raise the SL higher later)
Do not come into the market unprepared. And once prepared, do not waver. Remember your preparation should have plans for contingencies/ for the unexpected happenings.
There are choices to be made and there is a small price to it if you act systematically.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Crorepathi said:I have a methodology for beginners to learn JNSAR trading, which some of my friends are doing successfully
1. Select few scrips of nifty 50 i.e Tata motors, Wipro and RIL
2. Buy just 2 stocks when JNSAR long triggers and sell when JNSAR triggers and no shorts as these are stocks.
3. Do for a month with 3 stocks and move to NIFTY BEES.
4. Once well versed with nifty bees move to mininifty then to nifty futures.
Advantages: Low investment i.e - not more than Rs.5000. As any 3 of the stocks will be triggering now and then, the learning process will be quickened. As these are stocks, one can hold without loosing capital.
ilango says: Whenever Nifty is closing between DHEma and DLEma, it is in a range bound mode and one should accordingly part book @ resistances and supports(Trade). We have been posting & alerting such resistances and supports regularly. Take advantage of them. Evolve into a better traders by applying the right kind of discipline to various kinds of markets. There is a market to hold and there is a market to trade and there are markets to stay away too.

Nifty PreMarket View

Dear Raichand Shah,

Many, many Happy returns of the day.

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"5234-5263"-38%, 50%, 61.8% retracements and DLEma, DEma reside and is an ideal zone to initiate sell with 5286(80%) as a SL.

Though Hour TA is oversold for a mild bounce, day TA has confirmed a down and hence use the bounces to initiate sells. The depth of the correction would depend on 27th & 30th April closes(Week & Month)
Falling below month's JNSAR-5092 should ring in the first alarm bells.
"5077" a critical low made during the 4531 to 5630 may be considered as a major trigger for downsides.

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Dinesh Rishi has stated simply " Longs above SAR and Shorts below SAR". Can it get ever simpler than this. A number good enough to reflect this sentiment is JNSAR. To Manage the trade when SAR is being triggered, we have few options and the same is being discussed and written about under the label "JNSAR". Read them first before posing your queries. When Nifty breaches JNSAR number, does it require a "certification" from an experienced hand to announce "JNSAR triggered". If you do need one, what you lack is not knowledge but belief, conviction and confidence. No one could give you that. YOU have to take baby steps and expose yourself to the market with YOUR trades and gain confidence. How long are you going to sit around and procrastinate..? Make up your mind and do not waste anymore of your precious life and those of others. Lord Krishna says, "In doing your karma, all your negatives dissolve." Action alone will resolve and action based on sound judgement will make it easier. Need we say more.

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Nifty PreMarket View

There are cluster of resistances(1st) around 5365-80 zone-21Hr sma/34Hr Sma/5DEma.
By closing above LEmas, trading action come into play.
Above the 1st Res..comes 5405-5415 zone. And then the 5427-80% of last fall beyond which some more upsides.
5320-30 is the floor line/ support presently which will be raised as the day progresses.
Do not discuss JNSAR..it is just a number. (You could choose your own & still do wonders with a strong belief). I'm just keeping the mystery intact for those "less confident/ conviction trader" to follow it blindly.
Don't spoil their belief. If it gives them money, it is their GOD.
Please do not discuss JNSAR...I mean it.

Nifty continues to display many reversal patterns in the day T/F.

I am raised as a Hindu and when people talk to me about religion, I show them my religion's potential, its rich heritage. My closest friends are from Islam, Christianity, Sikhism, Jainism & Buddhism. I respect their religions and they respect mine. No religion has shown God in person. No one has seen God and proved it to the world. It is one's belief...faith that holds their life together...keeps them centered in joy & sorrows...in trials and tribulations.

I feel God in everything I do and I strongly believe in all the Gods of Hindu religion. To some, they may be Just Stones but to me & to many, they are real and I never felt the urge to prove it to anyone. So what if someone questions the presence of my God.

In this House, JNSAR is God. Many follow it like it is their own religion. Any problems?

Why do you come to the market? For entertainment..? or to make money..?

Haven't you seen Businessmen touching their work place, praying before starting their business. It is the one that gives them their bread & butter. One who worships his work makes it his God, his religion.

Even if you beg, cry & complain, market will not give you a dime. But if you follow JNSAR (a good guide to follow the market), it will make you richer.

Just as I revere being a Hindu, I know my Islam friends, Christian friends, Sikh friends, Jain friends and Buddhism friends are a revered lot. I respect each one of them for what they are and accept them whole heartedly. And I never considered to convert them to my religion.

Follow whatever you believe in..-5Sma, J10SAR, Trendline, Macd, EW, 5-20sma combo..Be truthful, sincere to it. Let your words not belittle anyone/ any system... What is the big hullabulla about JNSAR not giving target/ Stoploss, etc.. and hence it is not a trading system. Fine. I'll have the money rather than that perfect system. I don't want to know the target as long as the money keeps flowing in. I don't want a stop loss as long as I'm in a trade that gives me money.

JNSAR is GOD here. It may be just another number for you. Not to us. Any problems. Should I apologise for making it a GOD. OR should you apologise for hurting everyone's sentiments.

Bearish belt hold is a trend-reversal candlestick pattern indicating the beginning of a new downtrend after a significant uptrend (Day Time frame only). It is a single candlestick pattern formed of a long red bearish candlestick, which is an opening marubozo (have no upper shadow). Bearish belt hold candlestick occurs frequently and is considered less reliable and thus confirmation of trend change is necessary.

The requirements of bearish belt hold candlestick are:

• The candlestick should form after a significant uptrend.
• The price should open above a significant gap and the opening price should be the highest price of the day.
• The day should be noticeable with high bearish activity and the price should close at or near the lowest price of the day.

Bearish belt hold candlestick appears when bulls fail to keep the upward trend (often above a significant resistance). Many traders begin to sell-off their positions and this mark the beginning of a new downtrend.

The confirmation of trend-reversal can be a bearish candlestick, a lower gap opening or a lower close on the next trading day. Traders are also used to use other tools and indicators confirm price trends and to enter and exit trades. 1. JustNifty TA(08th Feb)

Nifty Intraday Update-I

If you want to succeed in stock market, know this: There is no perfect method/ system. You may improve upon the existing one to reduce whipsaws/ make better entry & exit or create a new system based on your own parameters.
The problem with the labelled "Perfect system" is that it makes you get into a complacent mode with a sense that your system will take care of results. Wrong. System stays wherever it is. You have to work with it. You have to manage your emotions of fear and greed. Fear always work when your system says buy (and in some cases sell) and greed when your system says sell.
If I can not make money with the most basic "Close price + 5dema or 5 dsma", then I'm not ready to use the next level system...& then on to more sophisticated systems.
Whatever system you choose, understand first how it works & whys of it and once you believe in it, never deviate from it.
I'm not an expert at certifying anybody's system. If it makes money for you, it certifies itself.
I have chosen a system and I do not want to look away from it. And you should also choose yours and stay loyal to it.

(Whenever I see enthusiasm in readers about a new system, I feel sad that they have failed to apply themselves with the ones they know of. This is not to discourage anyone from finding a new method which is better than the existing ones. But this is an honest observation of mine that most will never admit to their own shortcomings in handling a system but end up blaming the system. Hasn't JNSAR delivered 700 points in just 19 days this year or a minimum 300 points which is 30% return on a capital of Rs.50,000 in 19 days. You could sit and work the same magic with J10SAR and so many other methods)

All I emphasise here is that "Work at yourself and display everyday...every hour how you handle the market with your applied knowledge"...there is no shortage of systems. If you don't realise this soon enough, your running will never stop.

Nifty PreMarket View

If you find yourself difficult in trading a simple method like "Stop & Reverse" without another's affirmations/ approvals, the problem lies in your belief system. You may need to sit down and do a "back testing for 2 to 3 years of daily data" to know whether such a system works. Take our word for it; we have done it. Some may like to do it for themselves to feel confident about it. We have also suggested a light trading when Nifty consolidates/ corrects/ trades between DHEma and DLEma.
There are occasions Nifty has fallen big after piercing JNSAR and there are also occasions Nifty has breached it by 0.50 to 2 points and has reversed. It could be debated which is the correct way but there isn't any single one but a combination of them. We apply filter for two days after JNSAR has triggered. My mistake was to "remove that trigger on the 2nd day(19th) from 5000 to 5020".For the trader who managed to avoid that whipsaw, the JNSAR for today is 5022 without the filter. However, he can choose to apply the filter on the 3rd day too as per his wish.

Nifty entering a most critical day of technical importance for the coming weeks & months with weakness.

"5435-5445" is a most important channel support (Add a small filter if you must. But a close below 5593 & 5655 gives a weekly & Monthly SELL tomorrow. And a close below WLEma would add to downward momentum.
Interestingly a close above the MLEma tomorrow would stretch this trading mode for some more time.
Prices have been rejected at 5690-5720 range as well as at 5600-5610 range.Until these levels aren't cleared, the weakness would soon turn into downtrend with momentum.
Market could pause at supports and go into a sideways mode till "US Debt event" is done with and take a direction. Our market's close tomorrow would, hopefully, give us the clue earlier.
So many systems studying for all kinds of readers. Take your pick. And in the process discover each studies' strengths & weaknesses.
For simplicity, stick to JNSAR with TT study to know the "Trending & Sideways market". Once you embrace it, questions will cease and peace would descend on you.

Nifty PreMarket View

Tangotaurian, One of our oldest reader has created an excel file called TRADING SIGNAL that would benefit both index/ stocks traders to calculate various levels as well as auto generate trading signals. Though it has many stocks in it, you can choose to keep the number you wish to track in them, deleting the rest. He has made your job quite simple. Thank you TT.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = == = =

Following is a classic example of reading oscillators in combo with two time frames - here for short term traders with Day & Hour. Since the first sell emerged coupled with a close below DHEma on 3rd June, it has been a sell on rises till the Daily Lead indicator generates a buy.

Hello sir,
How are you doing.Hope you remember.I continue to follow your blog and the sar system.I had a query regarding profit bookings.Specific concern is about the way exits are shown on the table,particularly for 1st lot.

For Ex, the trade on 27-05 ,the first lot was booked out in 60 points,but the latest trade on Fri was booked out in 52 points,and sometimes i see bookings in 100+ or < 20.

How are these exits decided when you put on table.I ask because in real time trading we wont know when to book out. How do we decide when to exit.We can wait for 50 /100 /150 points,but its not a good way to book out.The second lot ,of course takes care of itself.

= = = = = = = = = = == =

Profit booking is generally based on Hourly technicals as well as the "Aggressive intraday supports/ Resistances levels".

Each market moves are unique with varying TA set ups in different time frames. One needs to understand the overall market dynamics using "Tech.Table" and act accordingly.

Never attempt to find a fail-safe system. Our Part booking strategy was devised to mitigate that problem. After profit booking, if you get Nifty to initiate a resell/ rebuy closer to JNSAR, do so. This maximises profits.

Best wishes.

Learn before you start out to earn...

A Mail from a reader that would be answered:

Iam an ardent follower and believer of your Idea & theory.

Since last few months I have criss crossed your pages on various occasions, viewing your writeups as lexical input.

Every time I am stuck in two stops.

1. It would have been very convenient had there been a combined essay covering all the aspect, step by step, (like stiching a MALA)or should I say the considerations which goes in your mind while considering taking any position, which will enable us to enrich with your theory and experience.

2. While going through the CONSERVATIVE & AGGRESSIVE trade column which is given along with PREMARKET VIEW
I am totally confused as however it is given on premarket review unable to match when you are shifting your stance.
Going thru the write ups after you have reversed the position I have found no hint of the step in your previous or same day write ups.A mention of direction or a few consideration in which the new position is to be taken along with the same column would have helped interpret the position.

I presume you dislike spoon feeding, so do I, however, dissecting the thought of a knowledgeable trader gives an enriching polish.

Being shy of the rush in your blog I decided to email you, hope have not invaded your privacy.
I shall be really grateful for your reply.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
What goes through my mind is years of experience of being exposed to the market which translates into certain dos and donts while reading the markets/ using various studies. I have given them in the following write ups. The sequencing of my thoughts based on various studies is complex and haven't been attempted to be put in words. Would try as time permits.
Applied Technical Analysis- A summary (Wrap up)
Weekend Analysis - Applied Technical Analysis.
OPTIONS: A powerful tool to be used with high discrimination
Nifty Tech.Analysis File explained-1.
JNSAR with TA /EW / Tech.table inputs.
Regarding Conservative Trade: The trades are taken mostly as per the Pre-Market view. However, on certain occasions based on sudden turn of prices, the changed view is communicated through "Comments section". There is another criteria too that Conservative trade is generally initiated before the JNSAR trade(Except during sideways market) and hence for some reason, if it is not done, the same should be applied here and trade taken.
Aggressive trade: These numbers are picked as per my perception of the market...whether trending or sideways. You need to ascertain first whether market is trading above pivots or below pivots..closing above pivots or below pivots..overbought or oversold..near the supports or resistances based on price study. And then sell or buy as per the resistance numbers(in red) or below Pivot(Pink) & buy @ supports(in green) and if that breaks, the next support(in green too).
Understand the colouring in Tech.Table(TT) to know the severity of a trend & direction and take those trades which are comfortably positioned. Your returns will be based on risks involved. Balance it.
JNSAR Trade: Enough has been written on it. You take a trade when this number is triggered. Also know that when Nifty is trading below JNSAR, the trend may be considered to be down and your trades need to be on the sell side till a confirmed +ve divergence develops.

JNSAR with TA /EW / Tech.table inputs.

The Bigger trade possibilities are highlighted whenever the Hour JNSAR & Day JNSAR has concurred and supported by other technical considerations and so on.

Doubters have no place here or hereafter.

Do not wait for challenges... I'm a businessman and make money and not prove anything to anyone. And at the same time if anyone comes here to disturb my peace and my blog's atmosphere, I do not hesitate to give him the boot.

If you think you are saving the gullible traders, start something of your own and do something good. I am a spark...I ignite and I have been doing it for years. If your engine isn't starting, come to me...I'll surely give you the spark..That is all. Driving is your job.

Instead Challenge yourself. Take this study further on...improve on it. And if you do find it worthless, trash it away and search out something better and follow it.

And do not be concerned with keeping the health of this blog. I can take care of it myself along with many of my well wishers here.

And once you come in here, be prepared to face the wrath of people who are patiently continuing their learning journey.

There are "raapitachikkaarargal" who keep jumping from blog to blog in search of a cure for their "ever itching but never cured illness". Don't worry, you will remain the same. Till you realise that what you are searching outside is already within you (we and many like minded people are here to highlight such a point), your running will not stop. There are many traders here realised their hidden talent/ potential and exploiting the market in their own way and sharing their experiences here.

I'm on a mission and I don't see anyone in front of me..All I see is just market..market..and market alone..

"Critic" - Term brings with it a lot of maturity, objectivity, responsibility and never directed at the person.

Capture the Big moves only if you can leave your ego outside the trading room.

Mothers carry their children patiently for 9 months, believing continuously in the life forming slow and steadily inside her. Each month is a different challenging one for her. Having gone through one month doesn't make her wiser for the next month. Each month brings its own challenges but she is willing to face them, doing whatever is needed. She knows..having patience and belief in the fact that millions before her have carried and delivered safely makes that journey worth all the risks which will culminate in holding a "bundle of joy" in her hands.
The odd mishaps reported here & there may alarm her but never deter her to abort her mission.

Most have fear while carrying out a task/mission. Fear if managed well becomes a super input for preparedness.

Businessmen have failed..students have failed.. Mothers have failed..Leaders have failed.. Champions have failed.Sportsmen have failed... Failures are everywhere. But the ones whose mind is "made up" is never deterred by these so called failed attempts.They continue knowing well that if they can take care of the reasons for their failed attempts, success is then just round the corner. Remember "You can achieve anything in the market if you are willing to put in the needed efforts with discipline".

Raging Sea that is capable capsizing ships never deterred sailors to sail into find its riches.
Forest with its wilderness & dangers never deterred the hunters to exploit its resources.
Everest with its unstable environment never deterred those steady flow of climbers to conquer it.

No great job has ever been accomplished without facing uncertainities. Great feats are achieved with an unwavering belief, confidence and patience.

A reader asked: Regarding ''J10SAR''..is it a simple EMA-10 moving average? which one is better among JNSAR & J10SAR?

How many trades did it generate since 11th February 2011 to till date ?
How many trades were won & lost?
What is the total points gained on winning trades and total points lost on loosing trades?

J10SAR is 10 day ema. It comes close to JNSAR. The idea here is any number will work as a SAR provided you follow the rules diligently. However, having a number that gives lesser whipsaws make it more convincing. They capture "All the big moves".

I am attaching Jpg document that shows "How money would have doubled in just 30 trading days by following a number with "limited inputs from our side to manage".

You may attempt to verify J10SAR feasibility.

They are good but what is required is :

Belief in this system.
Discipline to follow the system with limited management
Patience to wait to book profits and then to reverse the trade.

Get rich slowly.

Come Monday..Hour JNSAR will start its journey for those aggressive traders in an improved way.

Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan aate nahin
Bhakta Meera ke jaise bulate nahin,

Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan khaate nahin,
Ber Shabri ke jaise khilate nahin,

Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan Sote nahin,
Maa Yashoda ke jaise sulate nahin,

Kaun kehta hai Bhagvan naachte nahin,
Tum Gopi ke jaise nachaate nahin,

Yaad aayegi unko kabhi na kabhi
Krishan darshan to denge kabhi na kabhi .. Achyutam Keshavam…

Devotees who do not know much of singing joins the "Bhajan groups" in temples to offer that elusive music offering to "Music loving God".. Bhagwan loves such devoted music though it may be imperfect.

Similarly traders who are not professionals may join "Trading Bhajans here" to offer that elusive Rhythm to the " Rhythm loving market". Market will reward such "Rhythmic traders" more than the professional ones.

Nifty PreMarket View.

I intend to follow up on "JNSAR gains" to instill confidence and discipline among the few traders who would like to make it somehow.....and they should have faith in a system and follow it with unwavering focus despite some frustrating days when other systems may do well and avoid "jumping from one method to another". All you need to do to gain confidence is to "Set aside capital for 2 to 3 mini lots of Nifty or regular lots" and "follow the instructions".

Nifty PreMarket View.

Read about Weekend Analysis of Aarvee's.
Question: Should i start following JNSAR method only so that with one figure, i can remain away from all the noise.These days too many numbers are thrown on Justnifty blog and i m very bad at trading positions. I was reading about 10% returns, i will be content with 5% only.

Answer: JNSAR is a pivotal number which reflects the balance of power within Nifty and once the power shift decisively, big gains may be made in it as was evident in Sept. upmove. But there are many occasions, a keen tussle develops at such a point to wrest back the control as was evident on 30th sept. settlement day @ 5981 and on Friday @ 6103.

There are two ways to handle it: You simply initiate a trade as & when JNSAR is triggered and keep a 20 point leeway within a day to keep the trade alive as well as contain adverse moves in the opposite directions. If it moves away by 20 points, reverse the trade and monitor it based on next day's JNSAR. A JNSAR triggering in the 1st session is likely to stay and the 2nd session may get volatile.

The other way is to identify consolidation period and trade Nifty around JNSAR for which some experience in TA & EW is required. On Friday, after 2.00PM, Oversold indications were evident from the hour charts and knowing that a Trading range is developing, one should part book at such levels. Major falls generally do not unfold with weekly TA in upmode.

How to do "Intraday trading" effectively.?

A simple approach would be to be prepared with critical support/ Resistance levels derived from price charts based on price clusters along with fibo./ ema/sma/ Pivot numbers that coincide with them and use of these numbers when the "Intraday charts" get oversold or overbought as well as development of +ve or -ve divergences. You must make certain exceptions when the prices are trending up or down firmly and trade accordingly. I will start to post an "Intraday analysis" at the end of the day for understanding them better. You may also refer "Always start trading with these" at the top right side of this blog for referencing.

JNSAR - a Stop And Reverse Trading method.

Trading based on JNSAR:
JNSAR is a number based on market's strength and weakness as well as the balance of demand and supply. Whatever the number may be, a choppy market could whipsaw the number occasionally to shake off your confidence in them. However, staying with one method brings you consistent winnings.
Step:1: As the JNSAR for yesterday was 5468 and the previous trade taken was a sell @ 5483 on 25.08.10, the moment Nifty breached 5468 yesterday, you close out your earlier short and take a long position in minimum 2 lots - Stop and reverse (SAR).
Step:2: If after triggering a reversal trade @ 5468 and markets fall again, you do not change the trade on the same day as JNSAR is done only once a day but do so only the next day based on next day's JNSAR. (Risk averse could have a Stop loss in extreme choppiness but the essence of JNSAR is to keep the trade once triggered and manage it the next day only. If and when such extremes take place, I'll be around to alert you. This has not happened in the last 3 years).
Step:3:Once a new trade is taken in aminimum 2 lots, you book on one lot with a profit of 50, 100+ points and keep the 2nd lot till a reverse trade is triggered based on each subsequent day's JNSAR.
Step:4: After booking out on the 1st lot, if Nifty climbs back substantially and start to fall again, take a new trade again. For Eg: After triggering a sell @ 5483 on 25.08.10, Nifty fell to 5392 on 27.08.10 and the 1st lot was booked @ 5397 and on Monday, it rebounded to 5469 and started to fall breaking day's low @ 5441, another sell could have been taken and another profit booking would have been done. This step is optional and suited for the experienced.
Step:5: You may use the filter of 0.2% to 0.3% on JNSAR for 2 days once JNSAR new trade is taken to give the new trade a fighting chance & survive. For eg: For the new long trade taken @ 5468 yesterday, the JNSAR of today @ 5457 may be altered to minus 0.3% to 5441.
Step:6: Donot count your winnings. Stay focussed on each trade. I show the winnings in the table to show you that " I T I S P O S S I B L E".

Some readings are listed below. You will also find some write ups on it under "Always start trading with these"-step:6 on the side of this blog.
The Stop and Reverse (Known as SAR,) is a trend following indicator, that was developed by J. Welles Wilder. The Parabolic SAR is based upon the theory that a strong trend will continue to increase in strength over time, and will therefore follow a parabolic arc. The Parabolic SAR is displayed as a single parabolic line underneath the price bars for a long (upwards) trend, and above the price bars for a short (downwards) trend. The Parabolic SAR is displayed on the same chart as the price bars, and is the yellow lines in the example chart (full size chart).
Calculation

Trading Use

As the Parabolic SAR is a trend following indicator, it is only designed to be used in confirmed trends, and will give very bad results in a small ranging or sideways market. Entries are signaled by the start of a new parabolic arc, and exits are signaled by the price touching the parabolic arc. As the price touching the parabolic arc, is also the reason for the start of a new parabolic arc, the exit from the current trade and the entry into a new trade occur at the same time (hence the name Stop and Reverse). An alternative way of using the SAR might be to indicate the direction of the current trend, and then make entries and exits based upon another indicator (such as a momentum indicator).

More on SAR method.