Monday, September 30, 2013
Nifty Pre-Market View.
After the fall from 6142 to 5855, Nifty has done a "running correction" in its 2nd wave which is quite bearish.
Only a move above "5882" would bring mild bullishness.
Breaking below "5798", Nifty would move towards the gap zone-"5688-5738" initially. And MEma is placed in that zone @ 5703.
I'll be busy for some days and my participation will be limited.
Take ST trades only if you're experienced. Stay with JNSAR trades.
Only a move above "5882" would bring mild bullishness.
Breaking below "5798", Nifty would move towards the gap zone-"5688-5738" initially. And MEma is placed in that zone @ 5703.
I'll be busy for some days and my participation will be limited.
Take ST trades only if you're experienced. Stay with JNSAR trades.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Common sense wins over the wisdom of the day........
Mary is a sour-faced 10-year-old girl, who is born in India to selfish wealthy British parents who had not wanted her and were too wrapped up in their own lives. She was taken care of primarily by servants, who pacified her as much as possible to keep her out of the way. Spoiled and with a temper, she is unaffectionate, angry, rude and obstinate.
Later, there is a cholera epidemic which hits India and kills her mother, father and all the servants. She is discovered alone but alive after the house is empty. She is sent to Yorkshire, England to live with her uncle, Archibald Craven at his home called Misselthwaite Manor.
At first, Mary is her usual self, sour and rude, disliking her uncle's large house, the people within it, and most of all the vast stretch of moor, which seems scrubby and grey after the winter. She is told that she must stay confined to her two rooms and that nobody will bother much with her and she must amuse herself.
Martha , her good-natured maidservant, tells Mary a story of the late Mrs. Craven, and how she would spend hours in a private garden growing roses. Later, Mrs. Craven was killed in an accident, and Mr. Craven had the garden locked and the key buried.
Later, there is a cholera epidemic which hits India and kills her mother, father and all the servants. She is discovered alone but alive after the house is empty. She is sent to Yorkshire, England to live with her uncle, Archibald Craven at his home called Misselthwaite Manor.
Martha , her good-natured maidservant, tells Mary a story of the late Mrs. Craven, and how she would spend hours in a private garden growing roses. Later, Mrs. Craven was killed in an accident, and Mr. Craven had the garden locked and the key buried.
Friday, September 27, 2013
Nifty Pre-Market view.
No study needs our certification. They are just fine.
Learn to apply them objectively.
And you'll learn well once "bolti bandh hogaya toh".
If you are here for "making money", focus only on using the tools of studies whatever they may be. And share your such "application of studies & results" in a way it'll benefit others in grasping..like few readers here have been doing for quite sometime consistently. Do not disturb them, if you can not contribute anything sensibly.
If a tool is found to be not useful in realising profits, why do you get obsessed with it or its presence?
Find the one that suits your intelligence and temperament, follow it.
Some run a petty shop...and some a departmental store....some even graduate from a petty shop to a bigger one and some day the owner of a departmental store. All are well respected since all are working honestly, sincerely.
Never compare yourself with others. That is a sure recipe for unhappiness.
Find your nature, your capabilities....exploit it to the maximum. And while doing so, you'll start realising unimaginable potential hidden in you. Have patience and have a strong belief that "you can do it".
Do it your way. Even if you make 500 or 1000, let it be your learning and applying. You'll soon find the confidence in you growing and hold on to that confidence, the invaluable capital in this world. Once you have that, you can do anything, provided you maintain an equilibrium/ a balance in success & failures.
I wish you only the very best. Boldness has genius.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prices retreated on reaching "5918" yesterday sharply. Monitor the retrace of 5811-5918.
Since the rise was of 3 waves, it could retrace any %. We'll observe the usual 50%-61.8% wherein lies "DLEma". The ST direction is down till below 5910-20(approx).
Two possibilities labelled:
If "2" done, 3rd will open down but its severity may not be felt today.
If "a" done, "b" will frustrate the traders.
WHema & DLEma are likely to act as a trading range and break-out/ down.
Learn to apply them objectively.
And you'll learn well once "bolti bandh hogaya toh".
If you are here for "making money", focus only on using the tools of studies whatever they may be. And share your such "application of studies & results" in a way it'll benefit others in grasping..like few readers here have been doing for quite sometime consistently. Do not disturb them, if you can not contribute anything sensibly.
If a tool is found to be not useful in realising profits, why do you get obsessed with it or its presence?
Find the one that suits your intelligence and temperament, follow it.
Some run a petty shop...and some a departmental store....some even graduate from a petty shop to a bigger one and some day the owner of a departmental store. All are well respected since all are working honestly, sincerely.
Never compare yourself with others. That is a sure recipe for unhappiness.
Find your nature, your capabilities....exploit it to the maximum. And while doing so, you'll start realising unimaginable potential hidden in you. Have patience and have a strong belief that "you can do it".
Do it your way. Even if you make 500 or 1000, let it be your learning and applying. You'll soon find the confidence in you growing and hold on to that confidence, the invaluable capital in this world. Once you have that, you can do anything, provided you maintain an equilibrium/ a balance in success & failures.
I wish you only the very best. Boldness has genius.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Prices retreated on reaching "5918" yesterday sharply. Monitor the retrace of 5811-5918.
Since the rise was of 3 waves, it could retrace any %. We'll observe the usual 50%-61.8% wherein lies "DLEma". The ST direction is down till below 5910-20(approx).
Two possibilities labelled:
If "2" done, 3rd will open down but its severity may not be felt today.
If "a" done, "b" will frustrate the traders.
WHema & DLEma are likely to act as a trading range and break-out/ down.
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Nifty settles down in the broader cluster zone of 5800-5950 after a hugely +ve series.
Expiry Contest conducted by Mr. V.K.Soni:
The winners are:
m.veerasamy Maruthai-5884-Nifty corrected hour TT and correcting day TT. Tomorrow's pivot-5884. Stockathon-5880-Reason is J10SAR and 21 HrSma.
**** Congratulations!!!****
The winners are:
m.veerasamy Maruthai-5884-Nifty corrected hour TT and correcting day TT. Tomorrow's pivot-5884. Stockathon-5880-Reason is J10SAR and 21 HrSma.
**** Congratulations!!!****
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Prices found support @ cluster support "5798-5816".
And prices moved up from 5811 to 5884 in a 5 wave structure.
Prices also started a correction for that rise.
Retrace for the same is @ 5839-48, 61.8%-50%.. Weak below 5826, 80%.
If holds the above levels in the opening session, prices could rise by 73 points(5884-5811).
VIX Range is 5795 & 5953.
And prices moved up from 5811 to 5884 in a 5 wave structure.
Prices also started a correction for that rise.
Retrace for the same is @ 5839-48, 61.8%-50%.. Weak below 5826, 80%.
If holds the above levels in the opening session, prices could rise by 73 points(5884-5811).
VIX Range is 5795 & 5953.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Nifty Pre-Market View.
During uptrend, the first sign of "loss of momentum" is noticed when prices close below DHEma. (It goes for all time frames too). And a "sell on Rises" strategy comes in here. Except during strongly trending period, it works well.
Prices then move below DEma and close below it, confirming a ST reversal.
Prices, then, move towards DLEma to DLEma less 20 points approx. Remember DLEma number decreases as new lows are being made.
Having reached the lower range, DLEma - 20, prices attempt a bounce/ reversal and move towards DEma and if ST technicals help it, it will move towards DHEma or DHEma +20.(In the meanwhile DHEma number would have come down significantly).
It is only when prices close below DLEma, downward momentum would affect the prices.
Similarly, it is only when prices close above DHEma, upward momentum would return.
These "emas" could be matched with Price clusters in Hour chart for probable Supports and Resistances and further fine tuned with developing "Pivot numbers" or "Camrilla Numbers".
Once you have a "Trading range" for the day is developed, it becomes easy to "Sell on Rises" OR "Buy on Dips". Within the "Sell on Rises", a "Buy on Dips" comes in when prices come to the lower range but fail to close below DLEma. This is the best way to deal with a "Sideways Market".
"JNSAR Traders" would do well to adopt this strategy to "minimise" whipsaws. Let there be few whipsaws; it will keep you grounded. But if your JNSAR number is stuck between DHEma & DLEma and prices are closing between DHEma & DLEma, "Trade the Ranges"..
I have seen it work for years. But you need to be "loose and flowing" with the markets. Develop that edge.
Prices then move below DEma and close below it, confirming a ST reversal.
Prices, then, move towards DLEma to DLEma less 20 points approx. Remember DLEma number decreases as new lows are being made.
Having reached the lower range, DLEma - 20, prices attempt a bounce/ reversal and move towards DEma and if ST technicals help it, it will move towards DHEma or DHEma +20.(In the meanwhile DHEma number would have come down significantly).
It is only when prices close below DLEma, downward momentum would affect the prices.
Similarly, it is only when prices close above DHEma, upward momentum would return.
These "emas" could be matched with Price clusters in Hour chart for probable Supports and Resistances and further fine tuned with developing "Pivot numbers" or "Camrilla Numbers".
Once you have a "Trading range" for the day is developed, it becomes easy to "Sell on Rises" OR "Buy on Dips". Within the "Sell on Rises", a "Buy on Dips" comes in when prices come to the lower range but fail to close below DLEma. This is the best way to deal with a "Sideways Market".
"JNSAR Traders" would do well to adopt this strategy to "minimise" whipsaws. Let there be few whipsaws; it will keep you grounded. But if your JNSAR number is stuck between DHEma & DLEma and prices are closing between DHEma & DLEma, "Trade the Ranges"..
I have seen it work for years. But you need to be "loose and flowing" with the markets. Develop that edge.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Nifty Pre_market View.
Nifty opened with a gap down after making the high @ 6033 on Friday closing minutes, confirming 4th wave completion and start of 5th wave.
5th wave stopped above DLEma less 20 points of 5866.
However, the expected bounce is missing.
Hence an alt. view of 1st wave having been done at 5933, 2nd completed @ 6033 and the 3rd wave is on.
Another alt.view being "abc-x-abc" in which "abc" done @ 5933, "x" @ 6033 and the next "abc" is on.
Staying below 5940-55, weakness continues for newer lows.
Strong support exists @ 5800-25 zone. Only when this support gets broken decisively, reversal possibility can be considered.
5th wave stopped above DLEma less 20 points of 5866.
However, the expected bounce is missing.
Hence an alt. view of 1st wave having been done at 5933, 2nd completed @ 6033 and the 3rd wave is on.
Another alt.view being "abc-x-abc" in which "abc" done @ 5933, "x" @ 6033 and the next "abc" is on.
Staying below 5940-55, weakness continues for newer lows.
Strong support exists @ 5800-25 zone. Only when this support gets broken decisively, reversal possibility can be considered.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Nifty Pre-Market View.
5-Waves got completed @ 6142.
Did we know for sure? No.
Then, how do you make your trading plans at such a juncture?
We spotted a 5 sub-waves in the fall from 6142 to 6089 at Friday's open.
It could only be either a (iv)th wave of the last rise from 5805.
OR
The start of a correction for the entire 5 wave rise from 5119 to 6142/ Reversal.
In both cases, the immediate direction is "Down".
So what does one do?
"Sell @ retrace of 50%-61.8% with a SL above 80%", the best trading strategy for traders I strongly recommend and that translated into as below:
"Sell @ retrace of 6116-22 with a SL above 6131".
And Prices started to fall on retracing upto 6131 on RBI announcements.
That still kept both the options open.
If (iv)th wave correction, then a=c comes @ 6142-6089(53); 6131-53=6078 as (iv)th target.
Decisive break of 6078 would confirm a larger correction for the entire rise from 5119-6142.
And Market obliged with a quick, decisive break.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Similar dilemma today:
Whether 5 waves done from 6142 to 5933 or not?
Make your plans for the day and Keep it as simple & objective as possible.
Remember whenever market does 1,2,(1),(2),(i),(ii) OR (iii),(iv),(3),(4),3,4, it calls for extreme patience & alertness.
We outlined on Friday:
1. It is possible that a 5 wave got completed at a truncated 5938.75 at 2.00PM.
In that case an "abc" bounce is likely.
------------------------------------------------------------------
"abc" could continue towards 6032-55; Gets negated above 6091.
------------------------------------------------------------------
2. If we consider it as 3 wave fall, flat corrections would trade in a broader range of 5900 to 6150.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Above 6150, break out; Below 5900, Flat gets negated.
------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The 4th wave of the fall from 6142 is still continuing...
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Above "6030", we would negate this view.
September 20, 2013 at 3:23 PM
If 4th started from 5933 as a flat correction:
4.a=5933-6016
4.b=6016-5939
4.c= normally equals a; hence-5939+83=6022.
I applied a filter of MHEma(6029). Such excesses happen.
Now if it opens above 6033 on Monday, 4th is negated.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
EW usage for trading will be highly effective ONLY if you learn to identify Forms of waves.
(Shapes each wave is likely to take. Only more exposure would make it possible).
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Did we know for sure? No.
Then, how do you make your trading plans at such a juncture?
We spotted a 5 sub-waves in the fall from 6142 to 6089 at Friday's open.
It could only be either a (iv)th wave of the last rise from 5805.
OR
The start of a correction for the entire 5 wave rise from 5119 to 6142/ Reversal.
In both cases, the immediate direction is "Down".
So what does one do?
"Sell @ retrace of 50%-61.8% with a SL above 80%", the best trading strategy for traders I strongly recommend and that translated into as below:
"Sell @ retrace of 6116-22 with a SL above 6131".
And Prices started to fall on retracing upto 6131 on RBI announcements.
That still kept both the options open.
If (iv)th wave correction, then a=c comes @ 6142-6089(53); 6131-53=6078 as (iv)th target.
Decisive break of 6078 would confirm a larger correction for the entire rise from 5119-6142.
And Market obliged with a quick, decisive break.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Similar dilemma today:
Whether 5 waves done from 6142 to 5933 or not?
Make your plans for the day and Keep it as simple & objective as possible.
Remember whenever market does 1,2,(1),(2),(i),(ii) OR (iii),(iv),(3),(4),3,4, it calls for extreme patience & alertness.
We outlined on Friday:
1. It is possible that a 5 wave got completed at a truncated 5938.75 at 2.00PM.
In that case an "abc" bounce is likely.
------------------------------------------------------------------
"abc" could continue towards 6032-55; Gets negated above 6091.
------------------------------------------------------------------
2. If we consider it as 3 wave fall, flat corrections would trade in a broader range of 5900 to 6150.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Above 6150, break out; Below 5900, Flat gets negated.
------------------------------------------------------------------
3. The 4th wave of the fall from 6142 is still continuing...
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Above "6030", we would negate this view.
September 20, 2013 at 3:23 PM
If 4th started from 5933 as a flat correction:
4.a=5933-6016
4.b=6016-5939
4.c= normally equals a; hence-5939+83=6022.
I applied a filter of MHEma(6029). Such excesses happen.
Now if it opens above 6033 on Monday, 4th is negated.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
EW usage for trading will be highly effective ONLY if you learn to identify Forms of waves.
(Shapes each wave is likely to take. Only more exposure would make it possible).
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Flowers don't read a manual on how to bloom in the sunshine....why should we..???
One day a Canadian man arrived for his first visit with Neem Karoli Baba (Maharaj-ji). He didn't know much about Maharaj-ji but had heard about him. Maharaj-ji didn't give lectures or formal teachings; didn't write books; and he didn't formally initiate people. He just kept shining like the sun.
Flowers don't need to read a manual on how to bloom in the sunshine. (And we go to Art of Living..!! we just don't attempt to look within...and realise our nature)
Flowers don't need to read a manual on how to bloom in the sunshine. (And we go to Art of Living..!! we just don't attempt to look within...and realise our nature)
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