I stood in the airport, my eyes so full of tears that I could barely see my six-month-old grandson's face as I bent to kiss him one last time. My son, an air force career man, was being sent to Turkey, and he was taking his wife and baby with him. "He won't know me when you get back to the States," I said brokenly. "Now, Mom," my son tried to comfort me. "It won't take you long to get reacquainted." "How?" I wailed. "He won't even be able to understand a thing I say." I was referring to my heavy southern accent, which would be almost like a foreign language to little Damon when they returned in three years. As the weeks passed, my self-pity turned into fierce determination. I would find a way to make a bond between me and my little grandson, no matter how many miles or how many oceans might stand between us. I bought a children's picture book, a blank cassette tape and a disposable camera. I popped the blank cassette into the recorder and read the picture book aloud, using the same tone of voice and accents I would use if reading to a child. When I finished the story, I spoke a few words to Damon, ending with, "Always remember that Grandma loves you very much."
Let me remind that these files are prepared with a simple technical analyis in mind using trendlines, channels, supports & resistances, Moving average convergence & divergence, stochastics, Time cycles(Month, week, Day, Hour) , Elliott wave study and finally the "Tech.Table" composed of all the above.
Anyone could do what is being done with the Tech.Analysis in this file.
What would make a difference here will be your belief in what you see in the charts, the discipline you put in to develop a daily, weekly plan and your commitment to "Stick to such a plan" as well as tempering your excitement/ fear & greed and maintaining a sense of discipline to follow this method and be willing to be flexible when needed.
Without any of these, this file will be of no use to the user. Put in that minimum effort, you will find the results showing up.
Whenever you have time browse through the lessons in "Technical Analysis" under Labels section and the 7 links under "Always start trading with these".
Nifty managed to stay above the 5-week sma and the 5sma seem to be turning up just above the 40-week sma. Staying above 4850 will have good upside possibilities. For the shortest term, there was negative divergences in the hour charts and Nifty has come off the highs. There is also a "Bullish 3 method" in the hour chart which require a bull candle as big as today's for confirmation. Nifty got resisted at the previous support area-4990 just short of the 50sma. Only a close above that (5000) will turn this trend bullish. It may consolidate between the 50 sma & 5 sma before deciding the next course of action. A logical zigzag target is 5090.. Will it oblige.? $ index holds the key.!! Nifty managed to close above the "Day high ema" after a long period and in the process has closed above both week & month close ema suggesting strength. Fast rising "low ema" should offer supports now. See above - Ability of the "ema" to close above "sma" is a bullish signal and what is left is the "55 period".
This blog is enriched by the contributions of many and it has added another "enriching experience" from "Viren" who brings the Market Profile approach to studying the markets. I sincerely hope he will make his analysis known to the readers as it suits him. Thank you, Viren. I have always loved the volume analysis and MP catches it quite admirably. Here is his analysis. ********************************************************************** Friends,
Hope you had some time to read a bit about MP.
I am attaching a Profile chart of the Nifty ( Feb Future) for the past 2 days to help your understanding of the topic.
The blue horizontal bars are the volumes at each price point and the purple bars are where the bulk of the action i.e 70 % of the volume took place. This is called the Value area.
If price is above the value area, then buyers are in control and bias of the market up and below value area then bias down.Within Value area price acts as support and resistance for the moves, till one of them breaks.
It's important in MP to note the opening and understand what the buyers/ sellers are doing.Last 2 days the buyer showed up at the open and drove price up. Today it was the seller who brought price down.The first one hour is called initial balance and generally about 40-60 points in the Nifty. If less than 20-25 points then participants are on the side-lines and may move the market later.Generally the target in this case is twice the initial balance.
For tomorrow the value area is 4840-4854 which is relatively small because of the tight range of the past few days.Bias will be down on a break of 4840.There are many other concepts in MP, but I hope this will start you out on that journey where only you can make the discovery
Even if you do not follow MP totally, a good understanding of the buyer/ seller role will help you in your own TA or the levels which Ilango gives you.
As mentioned by him on the blog, it is very important that each of you develop your own understanding of your position and the risk-reward for you in the same.By following somebody else's trade you will never make it to a successful trader.Make the trade your own and accept full responsibility for the outcome.It was sad to see people complaining on the blog today about their trades.These people will never learn to trade because they blame the failure of the trade on others.
Also I believe that the markets in India are a fair place to trade today and there is no manipulation or operators at work in the broader liquid market.Those who truly follow the market will not ascribe the moves of the market to a few individuals.There may be price rigging in a few illiquid scrips and D category stocks, but the larger caps and particularly Nifty index and stocks cannot be manipulated by a few, whatever their resources.The reason I want to stress this is because if you want to make money from this market, you have to believe that it will treat you fairly.It will reward you for your good decision and punish you for your bad one.It just is the way it works..
Also tomorrow is a budget day, but just another trading day for us.There may be a few more amateurs and professionals in the market tomorrow, but that's about it.Nothing to get worried about...the market will talk to you just like any other day, only thing you have to be a bit more quicker with your moves. Listen to the message of the market..
Budget day ahead, weekend, month end and a long week end. And Nifty is below Day, week & Month ema. That is weakness or nervousness..and all those emas are just close by. A small 35+ point close can change the neutral/weak TA to "Bullish". There will be choppy & swift intraday moves and one can attempt to trade only if the "levels" come with either "OS" or "OB" indications and need to be alert with one ear to the budget unfoldment and both eyes to the trading screen. Is it all worth it..? yes to some..No to some. Make your choice.And stick to it no matter what. Do not enter the trading arena ill prepared. "Babu"..You will agree that our original S&R of shorts would still be playing out but for this stretched out frustrating sideways market that shakes off even the patient ones. ******************************************************************* There are all kinds of traders/ readers we interact with daily and we can also choose to be inactive but still participate as a passive reader. Everyone wants to share what they have learnt/ gained. Intentions are always good but sometimes the results can be different. Individuals who follow any one blindly will pay the price at some point. It is bad but that is how market works. The time you take to learn this trade will become an immensely satisfying phase of your life. Nothing in this world is easy. But you can make it easier by being passionate about it like a Sachin Tendulkar,Cristiano Ronaldo, Saina Nehwal, Leander paes, Harrison Ford and many more in their chosen field.No one has seen the years of their hard work. They are known only when they established themselves. So make the effort to establish yourself. You can say "bye" to all the rest. ******************************************************************
At 3.05PM: Ohhh..that was one of the many budget period surprise intra moves. Nifty still manages to stay above Low ema - NEUTRAL. ******************************************************************** If Nifty moves past 4871, a firm trend to next resistance to 4895 ...4915.?.
"Anandan" gets a "Big Pat on his back" from my critic whom he thinks doing a very good work with his various stock & index calls besides many other contributors. He finds Anandan's application of "Technical skills" as very good and admirable and worthy of great deal of appreciation. We thank you..dear ANANDAN.. Being a "critic", he also advises him to reduce the excitement part in his writings so that he can do still better.. My critic is "bearish" for the short term inspite of the intraday choppiness. He finds the "dollar index" corelation doing fine.
In this last week of the month & in this settlement week, there is going to be a lot of action to conquer the week ema & month ema @ 4884 & 4893 and the bulls have faltered at the start.. "Overbought" readings continue and now to look for the "holding of certain supports" such as 4780 & 4748 after having witnessed two sessions of selling from 4910-4930 levels.. Since 18th Feb, Nifty is getting sold off after having closed below the "Day High ema"..Will the "Day Low ema" give it supports..Doubtfulllll..
Trade the levels mentioned in the "Pre-Market View" which Rajeev Verma has captured well. 4885-4920+ the resistance zone, above which 4940-4950 strong supply area. 4850 being a pivot, below which 4825, 4780 are the supports. Expecting a sideways market for 2 - 3 days unless 4950 is decisively breached.
RAJEEV VERMA's mail came last night and my chart was ready before it and see how his analysis blends with mine. Great work Rajeev. Trade this zone initially and we will follow these prices..
Ihave done a small weekly analysis based on 5ema system,pivot points and important levels that u have been teaching us.Kindly go through it –
1.In this month of Feb,till date we are down only 40 points or less than a percentage.the markets have been range bound in 200 point range though very choppy.
2.Coming week has monthly as well as derivates expiry.with budget coming up,it will be a range bound week.
3.I find that weekly close is below weekly close ema of 4885,and daily close also below close ema of 4856 ,suggesting that daily rallies will be sold into and hrly rallies will be sold into till daily closes above 5ema.
4.As weekly TA is down,whenever nifty reaches weekly ema of 4885 chances are strong of a sell off.this level incidentally matches 20ema of 4890 and daily high ema of 4885.thus giving a strong resistance.also we have seen last week’s weakness creeping in below this level.so 4885-4890 can be taken as strong resistance.
Closing above it can take to 4915,which is 5day high close and weekly pivot R1 of 4922.
5.As we can assume by weekly TA that low ema may be brought into, weekly low ema comes at 4798,which is also near weekly pivot S1 of 4776 and a previous important support of 4780-90.so we can assume we will get fair support at 4775-90.
Below which 4740 and 200DMA of 4720 will provide support.
6.This week may be a rangebound one, largely in the range of 4775-4890.
Also I have some observations on long term charts based on Trendlines and Moving Averages----
1.Firstly I find that the major trendline giving support since march’09 has broken in Jan’10 end, at level of 5200.
2.Since than Nifty has, for thefirst time after March’09--
- A bearish crossover of 20D and 50D ema averages,
- A bearish crossover of 5W and 13 W ema averages,
-Closing below a support line of 20W average (now 4weeks in a row)
3.Recently in Feb,a triple MA bearish crossover of 20Dema,50Dema,100Dma has happened.
4.All the above point out to significant change in structures of charts to a midterm bearish scenario for the first time since march’09..
5.Now the nifty has been supported near 200dma in last correction before moving up.The resistances to this upmove can be 50ema of 4985,100dma of 5015 , the support now turned resistance of 20week average at approx.5000.and also 50% retrace of fall from 5310-4675 at approx 5000
6.I am of the opinion that any corrective rally which goes upto 5000-5025 levels should be sold into positionally.With the major event like the annual budget coming up can mark the final reversal of this market to a midterm bearish one.
Sir,kindly see for corrections in my view and tell me if EW theory is suppoting this outlook.Though we should be flexible with our views but if there is going to be a significant trend change or its building up now our Blogmates can be cautious and can take benefit of it.Incidentally Jan-Feb’08 had similar traits as mentioned in 2010 markets above .
I am a mother of three and have recently completed my college degree. The last class I had to take was Sociology. The teacher was absolutely inspiring with the qualities that I wish every human being had been graced with. Her last project of the term was called "Smile."
The class was asked to go out and smile at three people and document their reactions. I am a very friendly person and always smile at everyone and say hello anyway, so, I thought this would be a piece of cake, literally. Soon after we were assigned the project, my husband, youngest son, and I went out to McDonald's one crisp March morning. It was just our way of sharing special play time with our son. We were standing in line, waiting to be served, when all of a sudden everyone around us began to back away, and then even my husband did. I did not move an inch...an overwhelming feeling of panic welled up inside of me as I turned to see why they had moved. As I turned around I smelled an unpleasant body odour, and there standing right behind me were two poor homeless men.
As I looked down at the short gentleman, close to me, he was "smiling". His beautiful sky blue eyes were full of God's Light as he searched for acceptance. He said, "Good day" as he counted the few coins he had been clutching. The second man fumbled with his hands as he stood behind his friend. I realized the second man was mentally deficient and the blue eyed gentleman was his salvation. I held my tears as I stood there with them.
The young lady at the counter asked him what they wanted. He said, "Coffee is all Miss" because that was all they could afford. (If they wanted to sit in the restaurant and warm up, they had to buy something. He just wanted to be warm). Then I really felt it ... the compulsion was so great I almost reached out and embraced the little man with the blue eyes. That is when I noticed all eyes in the restaurant were set on me, judging my every action.
I smiled and asked the young lady behind the counter to give me two more breakfast meals on a separate tray. I then walked around the corner to the table that the men had chosen as a resting spot. I put the tray on the table and laid my hand on the blue eyed gentleman's cold hand. He looked up at me, with tears in his eyes, and said, "Thank you." I leaned over, began to pat his hand and said, "I did not do this for you. God is here working through me to give you hope." Tears welled up in my eyes as I walked away to join my husband and son.
When I sat down my husband smiled at me and said, "That is why God gave you to me, Honey. To give me hope." We held hands for a moment and at that time we knew that only because of the Grace that we had been given, were we able to give. We are not church goers, but we are believers. That day showed me the pure Light of God's sweet love.
I returned to college, on the last evening of class, with this story in hand. I turned in "my project" and the instructor read it. Then she looked up at me and said, "Can I share this?" I slowly nodded as she got the attention of the class. She began to read and that is when I knew that we as human beings and being part of God, share this need to heal people and be healed.
In my own way I had touched the people at McDonald's, my husband, son, instructor, and every soul that shared the classroom on the last night I spent as a college student. I graduated with one of the biggest lessons I would ever learn: UNCONDITIONAL ACCEPTANCE.
Much love and compassion is sent to each and every person who may read this and learn how to love people.
Everyone in this market has a story to tell and every word is uttered out of an experience quite unique to that person. Some come into this market with maturity and character and that helps in dealing with this worthy adversary(Market) and some come into this market and gains that maturity and character.
Fortunately, Mr.RajaGopal belongs to the former and it is visible from his experience that he has brought with him the kind of maturity and character that has helped him to find a method to deal with the "unpredictable market".
I have posted below his mail that shares his thoughts and I am sure you will find them useful.
God’s grace I could make some money in this market. I have been watching the market since 1990 and mustered the courage to enter in March 2009. I discussed with my wife and after her total approval invested money given to me (by wife since she manages the funds) to buy a car. First three advantages for me from the above are:
a.I know the environment – though may not be a technician.
b.I know the RISK and so does my wife.
c.God forbid – if my capital is hit – it will not hurt me financially.
Above three points give me great confidence and a care free approach to my trades. I am relaxed and feel as though I am playing chess against a much intelligent player (market).
Question to you: Where are you on the above three points? What can you do to get the freedom and confidence? Basically do you believe you can make money in this place?
Once in the market I learnt a few more facts:
What ever I buy will go down
What ever I sell will go up.
What ever goes up will come down.
What ever comes down will go up.
So, we may not even be making 60-70% correct trades on entry but if we can survive and hold, market will oblige us.
Bottom Line: Do you have the capacity to hold your trades?
I am not much big on technical and you would have read enough funda on market. Hence I limit with my above understandings alone.
My trading style:
1.I believe making money in day trading is a misnomer – you can make but it cannot be the sole trading methodology. Reasons 1 and 2 above – and we are forced to close trade at cut off time. (Post which time our trade will be in green). Hence the trade funds are divided between Day and Positional trading capital (20% day and 80% positional), Do you do this demarcation?
2.I have been a single side player – just converted into both sides – long and shortand now finding my revenue growth. Do you play both sides?
3.I have created a basket which consists of:
a. Aban Lyodb. Bhartic. DLFe. HDFCf. HDFC Bankh. ICICIj.L&Tm.M&Mn.RILo. SBI p. Tata Motorr. Tata Irons. Axist. BHELu. Hero Hondav. Sunpharmaw. DR Reddyx. NIFTYy. Bank Niftyz. Infosys and TCS.
You will notice that each of the above are vibrant counters with daily action. Every eod, I take a download of this page from my terminal and note down the TOP gainers and losers.
If there is Gain or Loss on two successive trading days, for me that counter is eligible for either Short or long on third day – provided there is no stark negative news. Example Infosys kept surging with great flow of +ve news and results. Ran for more than 5 sessions – did not short it, since the information was noted. Now, Bharti went down for two days – being basically a good scrip, I entered on the third day for Long.
So my Rule no:1 is:
Gain for two days eligible for a Short (must not be a recovery from bad patch)
Down for two days eligible for a Long (must not be a wrong tagged one)
Rule no: 2 is: Which ever stock goes near its 52week high and hesitates deserves a Short – provided the market is not surging blind.
Defence: My Longs are in current futures (if in future). My shorts are always in NEXT future and SHORTS ARE ALWAYS IN FUTURES ONLY.
I don’t spend much time in Technical studies. I am guided by Ilango. Imagine if one person has BP and cardiac problem, it is enough to know that he has these and what the medicines are prescribed by the doctor. Must he spend time analyzing his medical status every hour? He has to believe his Doctor – and Ilango is my Doctor.
Last but not the least – keep good personal rapport with your broker.
Don’t think you are a loser. As the saying goes you have not lost anything till you lose your self confidence.
Meet your broker with confidence of a trader who will win. Not as one who is afraid. Your broker will be a big help in holding your position. I am immensely benefited from all my brokers.
Don’t want to bore you. Don’t want you to lose money.
Our friend "Anandan" in spite of his exuberance is good with his calls. Kindly send him a mail and ask him to include your id. He goes by Ilango’s formula in identifying the trade. Validate them and use them.
Please be in touch. I am not a great trader. But God blessed me with a habit of making money. I fight away my losses like a third rated street thug.
All the best. Smile, relax and Joke, your trades will be winners.
95% of Profits are generated by our positive thinking. Tata Motors went down Rs 9 from my cost, I was so sure it will bounce back…..
Don’t be trigger happy with your Stop Loss.
Warm regards
LVA..Chennai.
(RajaGopal)
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Though I do not agree with "holding on to a losing position", the point that has been made here is that often the "holding capacity" of an individual determines the winning or losing.
Come ...Share your experiences with all your fellow traders..
"Viren" wants to share his experiences and his knowledge of "Market Profile" with all the readers and he is welcome to do so. "Only the beaten" understands this markets well. I see two kinds here: One comes with "Character" and that maturity sails him through. The other comes in & gathers "Character" after being beaten by the markets. The common link being persistence and patience. Welcome "Viren"..it will just get richer this way. Some have asked for "rsi"..the tech file that I have been sending lately has it.
At 11.15Am: A low risk intraday Long with a Sl of day's low. *******************************************************. SELL at the resistances as marked in the table.
