Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Nifty breaks the pivot , Channel & does a bar reversal..

Nifty broke the channel once again. For conservatives, the redrawn channel comes @ 4270 for tomorrow. A potent H&S pattern at the top has formed with "OB" readings in both weekly & daily...a break below 4220 will confirm it.

Hourly high ema had given a sell since yesterday. At 11.00 AM, both hourly ema and hourly low ema reinforced that sell and stayed that way. At EOD, daily momentum weakened below Day's high ema(4399) and sell confirmed below 5 day ema @ 4322. Market also stopped just below 5 day low ema @ 4272.

Expected a pullback to 4350-4335 but showed weakness & broke the channel. Macd looks poised to move into negative zone..

The most obvious count worked very well with "ORB" breakdown @ 4404 @10.15 AM.
"OS" 5 minute TA might induce a bounce which is likely to get resistances @ 4310 - 4345 area.

An Alternative scenario: If 4220 level holds, & if Nifty moves past 4345, it may rally to 4390..

Nifty's moves ahead

An attempt @ possible intra moves. A "b" wave may be developing...if it is an irregular one, it may go past yesterday's high and then correct into the "c' wave of the 4th. Depending on the inherent strength, the "c" may play out...sideways in strength or downwards in weakness. On completing the 4th, it should start its 5th up.

Alternatively as per Hourly counts, if it has more strength, it will be doing "(iii)rd" of the "iii", moving up steadily. have your pick.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Nifty resisted @ 20 DMA - at a cross road.

Going below today's low(4350) and 5-DMA(4310) will break the channel..

Nifty got resisted @ 5 week High ema. And now for a support @ 5-Day ema..??

Hourly indicators showed "OB" without negative div. If 4330 holds, more upsides. If not towards newer lows.

A negative divergence @ 20-DMA resistance...to seek supports @ 4350-4330.

A most obvious count..

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Nifty ends the settlement at the lows..

Nifty unable to retrace the fall of the last leg from 4352(Monday) to 4142(Tuesday) and breaking of the slow retracement channel today @ 4290 indicates weakness.
Below 4220-4200, the fall will accelerate towards the 50 DMA @ 4050.

Alternatively, if 4200-4220 is held and rallies up with the help of world mkts, it needs to move past 4267(Pivot) initially, then 4310.

Breaking of these levels will be decisive. Technically Nifty is weak with hourly reversing from the "OB" levels at 1.00PM. Staying below short term daily averages and breaking of the daily channel for the second time are pointing to weakness.

As the settlement ended weak, week also could end closer to the lows @ 4142.




Saturday, June 20, 2009

Don't we all.???

I was parked in front of the mall wiping off my car. I had just come from the car wash and was waiting for my wife to get out of work. Coming my way from across the parking lot was what society would consider a bum.
From the looks of him, he had no car, no home, no clean clothes, and no money. There are times when you feel generous but there are other times that you just don't want to be bothered. This was one of those "don't want to be bothered times."
"I hope he doesn't ask me for any money," I thought.
He didn't.
He came and sat on the kerb in front of the bus stop but he didn't look like he could have enough money to even ride the bus. After a few minutes he spoke.
"That's a very pretty car," he said.
He was ragged but he had an air of dignity around him. His scraggly blond beard keep more than his face warm.
I said, "thanks," and continued wiping off my car. He sat there quietly as I worked. The expected plea for money never came. As the silence between us widened something inside said, "ask him if he needs any help." I was sure that he would say "yes" but I held true to the inner voice.

"Do you need any help?" I asked.

He answered in three simple but profound words that I shall never forget. We often look for wisdom in great men and women. We expect it from those of higher learning and accomplishments. I expected nothing but an outstretched grimy hand. He spoke the three words that shook me.

"Don't we all?" he said.



I was feeling high and mighty, successful and important, above a bum in the street, until those three words hit me like a twelve gauge shotgun.
Don't we all? I needed help. Maybe not for bus fare or a place to sleep, but I needed help.
I reached in my wallet and gave him not only enough for bus fare, but enough to get a warm meal and shelter for the day. Those three little words still ring true. No matter how much you have, no matter how much you have accomplished, you need help too. No matter how little you have, no matter how loaded you are with problems, even without money or a place to sleep, you can give help.
Even if it's just a compliment, you can give that. You never know when you may see someone that appears to have it all. They are waiting on you to give them what they don't have. A different perspective on life, a glimpse at something beautiful, a respite from daily chaos, that only you through a torn world can see.
Maybe the man was just a homeless stranger wandering the streets. Maybe he was more than that. Maybe he was sent by a power that is great and wise, to minister to a soul too comfortable in themselves.
Maybe God looked down, called an Angel, dressed him like a bum, then said, "go minister to that man cleaning the car, that man needs help."

Don't we all?


Author Unknown

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Nifty breaks 5 & 14 day lows in one single day..!!

Trend is clearly down..No positive divergences seen in any time frame.
Let me study further, discuss with my critics and add if any by morning.

CORRECTIONS:-Once the 3rd has become larger than 1st, the 5th can become the biggest and it fell more than 190 points from the 4th(4538) and it may be still on with 5.4 & 5.5 pending or may have ended at today's lows . Alternatively an "abc-x-abc" structure can target either 4265(30 DMA & a=c) or lower. Channel support comes @ 4170 for tomorrow.




Nifty's likely moves

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Nifty's likely moves..


Nifty's stay at the "Northside" would end on a break below 4450-4460.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Work or Pray..!!

A boy crossed the desert and finally arrived at the monastery of Sceta, near Alexandria. There he asked and was given permission to attend one of the abbot’s talks.

That afternoon, the abbot spoke of the importance of their work in the fields.

At the end of the talk, the boy said to one of the monks:

‘I was really shocked. I expected to hear an enlightened sermon on sin and virtue, but the abbot talked only about tomatoes and irrigation and things like that. Where I come from we all believe that God is mercy and that all we have to do is pray.’

The monk smiled and said:

‘Here we believe that God has done His part and now it is up to us to continue the process.’

By Paulo Coehlo..

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Nifty extended the consolidation..>4680..more highs.,<4615..lows.

Consolidating US mkts are expected to make new highs. Holding the highs will influence other mkts and Nifty may also head higher towards 4700+.
On the other hand, if there is a sell off in US mkts after the highs are made and if Nifty breaches 4585/4615, it may trigger a fall.



NIFTY - My Preferred View...

I think, I have answered you today, GK. And thanks for pushing me to find answers.
US mkts are waiting to move higher past S&P500-951 to 990-1000 mark with a lot of doubts. Experts are getting whipsawed on regular basis.
Writing higher calls while playing out the uptrend is one way of playing it safe. This is the phase of the tip of the pyramid where you scale down your positions in parts and be ready to exit all longs on the first sign of a reversal confirmation(A close below 4525 as of today).


Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....