Showing posts with label Mind over Matter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mind over Matter. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Nifty, holding above 5540, inching towards higher range in its corrective phase.

Suresh has this dilemma of which method to follow: JNSAR or Elliott wave??.
JNSAR is a stop & reverse method..mechanical in nature and you stay in a trade all the time. However, once you are experienced, using the Tech.table, you would spot those sideways periods when Nifty closes below DHEma during uptrend or above DLEma during downtrend and adopt a trading strategy by using JNSAR as a pivot and keep part booking it near DHEma & DLEma.
Elliott wave study is highly subjective (because each sees the wave differently and there is no definition for what is a wave), though over a period of exposure you can adopt more objectivity to it. EW helps you to sell even when the trend is firm & strong as per various technical parameters and it also helps you to buy when selling frenzy is on and panic all around.

A combination may be adopted where in EW may be used for profit booking at critical reversal points. You must possess rich experience in your choice of using these methods at various points. EW helped us to spot 5935-65 resistances along with a simple price study and sJNSAR confirmed it with a sell @ 5855 and EW pointed out a bottoming near 5465 and even helped with the small trading moves & JNSAR is yet to confirm it...There could be small whipsaws.
As your example pointed out, TataMotors was a buy above 1172 as per EW and buy above 1186 as per JNSAR. If you are confident of your EW study, you would go long above 1177 and look out for an additional confirmation from the other method(JNSAR). One method should be the primary decision makin g basis and the others should come in as secondary confirmatory ones. There is absolutely no conflict here. One will be lagging and one will be leading as we have in "Stochastics and Macd combo" where in Stochastics(Lead Indicator) leads and Macd(Trend indicator) lags. It is a combination of aggressive & conservative approach. This kind of combination methods improve the returns as long as you keep them simple and in their repective places-primary, secondary.

It need not get more complicated. If one is not able to make money using these, then the fault lies with the individuals emotion-handling capability, belief-in self. One need to work on them.

Bob Prechtor who won decades ago trading in options using EW gives a lot of credit to his "military experience" where orders are obeyed without questions. When you start believing in your systems in that military fashion after having accepted it whole heartedly, you have started an automated mechanism within you which is capable of making money consistently. Once the money starts pouring in, your "ego" is likely to interfere - beware of it and keep it in check or throw it away when trading. Distractions has always been the bane of traders. Take a cue from Rajinikanth, take your laptop and go to a cave in a mountain...if that is what will solve your problem. But then, if you start running, then even an insect in the cave will distract you. Stay where you are but set your mind into equilibrium.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Nifty PreMarket View.

We have to take risks. We can only truly understand the miracle of life when we let the unexpected manifest itself.
Every day – together with the sun – God gives us a moment in which it is possible to change everything that makes us unhappy. Every day we try to pretend that we don’t realize that moment, that it doesn’t exist, that today is just the same as yesterday and will be the same as tomorrow. But if you pay attention, you can discover the magic instant.
It may be hiding at the moment when we put the key in the door in the morning, in the silence right after dinner, in the thousand and one things that all seem the same to us. This moment exists – a moment when all the strength of the stars passes through us and lets us work miracles.
Happiness is at times a blessing – but usually it’s a conquest. The magic instant helps us to change, drives us forward to seek our dreams. We shall suffer and go through quite a few difficult moments and face many a disappointment – but this is all transitory and inevitable, and eventually we shall feel proud of the marks left behind by the obstacles. In the future we will be able to look back with pride and faith.
Poor are those who are afraid of running risks. Because maybe they are never disappointed, never disillusioned, never suffer like those who have a dream to pursue. But when they look back – for we always look back – they will hear their heart saying: “What did you do with the miracles that God sowed for your days? What did you do with the talent that your Master entrusted to you? You buried it deep in a grave because you were afraid to lose it. So this is your inheritance: the certainty that you have wasted your life.”
Poor are those who hear these words. For then they will believe in miracles, but the magic instants of life will have already passed.

in “By the river Piedra I sat down and wept” by Paulo Coehlo.


Thursday, May 6, 2010

Nifty Premarket View

The greatest pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot.-Walter Bagehut
Feature Article from Inner Worth.
Intuition: It May Be Illogical But It's A Trader's Most Valuable Asset
If only humans were more like machines. In theory, the ultimate trader would act like a robot, analyzing market data with unfailing accuracy, devising a trading plan, and executing it without flaw. But does trading work that way? Trading is more art than science. Without an intuitive grasp of the markets, it's difficult to successfully trade the markets using short-term trading strategies.

As Captain Kirk would constantly remind Mr. Spock on "Star Trek," humans have the potential to intuitively grasp situations that evade pure logic. There are times when the world doesn't operate in terms of logic. The physical world is the exception. The universe surely operates according to the laws of physics. If it didn't, we could never travel through space or reach the moon. The human world, however, rarely operates with precise accuracy. Sure, there are those traders with fancy algorithms and mathematical equations to forecast the market action, but ultimately, the markets are really just humans making decisions and acting on their beliefs and emotions. Psychologists learned long ago that people's actual real life behavior could not be broken down and predicted with mathematical equations. The most famous individual in the history of psychology was Professor Clark Hull. In his day, he was the leading figure in the science of psychology. He tried to illustrate how mathematical concepts can be used to forecast human behavior, but it didn't work. Today, Professor Hull is merely a footnote in the history of psychology.

It's vital to remember the fact that people are not machines, and because they aren't, their behavior cannot be reduced down to simple formulae. As much as we want to believe science can do anything, it's hard to fully account for human motives. You may ask, "Can't we put multiple streams of information together in a multiple regression equation and forecast what the masses will do?" The answer is no, not in the short term. The best you can do is use past data to forecast the future. But history only repeats itself when it does. The "weighting" of a variable in the equation is not fixed, as it is in the physical sciences. One day the weight may be 1 while on another day, it may be 0. We don't know what the precise weighting of the variable is until it's too late. What can you do instead? You must trust your intuition. Again, trading is more art than science. You have to look at patterns and try to anticipate where the market will go next. Is it perfect? No. Is it uncertain and chaotic? Yes. You must accept uncertainty into your life. You must work under the assumption that you will be wrong more often than right. Over time, and with enough practice, you'll see patterns emerge. You'll see how market conditions change, and how trading is a matter of knowing what to do under specific conditions. There are consistencies when it comes to the market, but they are not always obvious. You must look for them. The more practice you have at studying the markets, the more you will trust your intuition and trade like a master trader.
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I would like to add that we need not worry about that "Intuition" whether we have it or not but follow our methods and act only when our methods give us higher chances of success and desist from acting when the clarity is less. These acts of ours will allow such an "Intuition" to develop in us.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Spirituality in Trading..

Spirituality to me means being in balance within myself when all kinds of emotions arising due to our interactions with the external events , people, etc. I have watched many truly spiritual people working in various fields like Dr.Manmohan Singh, Dr.Abdul Kalam, Sachin Tendulkar, Viswanathan Anand, Magic Johnson, Michel Schumacher, Pele, Dhyanchand, Cristiano Ronaldo, Amitabh Bachhan , Swamy Vivekanand , Narayana Murthy, Azim Premji, to name a very few. They excelled in their fields irrespective of any distractions & criticisms and what mattered most in their life was the job in hand and they kept at it with an amazing balance and carried out their work with such SUPERCONSCIOUSNESS which propelled them into the highest pinnacle of their chosen field with an incredible consistency. They were able to filter out the noise around them, stayed focused and above all they were always disconnected from the excitement and the expectant results as emphasised in Bhagawad Gita.

I have been blessed in knowing a few amazing traders both men and women (My Critic & friends) with such high level of intelligence and perception and one of them trades like Jesse Livermore. Inspite of their excellent grasp of the market, they have failed on certain occasions due to inconsistency in applying themselves and disconnecting from excitement & results, though they are capable of much higher reach.And I am seeing them evolving into fine traders everyday.

That brings me to the spirituality factor or should I call it the CONSCIOUSNESS factor. The more conscious you are in the market, evenly balanced as in yogic teachings, the end results are going to be amazing as well. It is very difficult considering that Arjuna who was always mentored by Lord Krishna couldn't keep his EGO in check and has to be brought down to his senses by the Lord Himself on many occasions.
Even the egotistic Arjuna had that Superconsciousness whenever he took his arrow & aimed, he would just see the object and nothing else and he was the Expert Archer.

So the enemy to an excellent trading is not the efficient market or CNBC or hyped up tipsters & the so called operators but within us. We have to handle our inner turmoil, become evenly balanced by increasing our levels of Consciousness by the KARMA YOGA Method. Just keep doing it till you perfect it..and become one day like the character Bruce Lee in Enter The Dragon answering to his Master's observations that his Skills are at the point of Spiritual insight.
"What is the highest technique?"..."To have no Technique.."
"What are your thoughts on facing your opponent?".."There is no opponent...."
"Then why is that?"..."Because the word "I" does not exist"..
"A good martial artist doesn't become tense but ready.Not thinking yet not dreaming.Ready for whatever may come when there is an opportunity. A martial artist has to take full responsibility for himself and accept the consequences for his own doing"

And you will become one with the flow of things when you learn to FEEL the Markets...You won't fight it..You will just let it happen to you..

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....