Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Keeping below "5665", Nifty is headed towards the target 5541 or even lower.
There will be bounces along the way and they will be resisted @ 21 & 34 Hr smas(5643-65).
A 4th wave correction should end in the next two days and should not break the day channel (5500) decisively.
When a correction is on, there will always be doubts on whether it is of short term in nature or it could turn into a larger reversal. No one could answer it with certainity since there are no certainities in the market but only "probabilities". And the one who is "objective-minded", he/she alone can arrive at good probabilities. The simplest way to handle such situations is to "part-book" & hold the remaining as long as "signals favour holding" and reverse when reasonable "reversal signals" are seen. Has any "reversal signals" are seen presently? Not yet.
For the day: A close above "5604" by a comfortable margin would keep the "monthly upward momentum".
"Sell on rise" continues and market is in search of that reliable support.
The likely support zones are:
5573-5581 - 10 wk sma/ ema.
5537-5542 - Major pivot low/ ZZ target/50sma/55ema
5510-5524-13wk sma/55 DSma.
There will be bounces along the way and they will be resisted @ 21 & 34 Hr smas(5643-65).
A 4th wave correction should end in the next two days and should not break the day channel (5500) decisively.
When a correction is on, there will always be doubts on whether it is of short term in nature or it could turn into a larger reversal. No one could answer it with certainity since there are no certainities in the market but only "probabilities". And the one who is "objective-minded", he/she alone can arrive at good probabilities. The simplest way to handle such situations is to "part-book" & hold the remaining as long as "signals favour holding" and reverse when reasonable "reversal signals" are seen. Has any "reversal signals" are seen presently? Not yet.
For the day: A close above "5604" by a comfortable margin would keep the "monthly upward momentum".
"Sell on rise" continues and market is in search of that reliable support.
The likely support zones are:
5573-5581 - 10 wk sma/ ema.
5537-5542 - Major pivot low/ ZZ target/50sma/55ema
5510-5524-13wk sma/55 DSma.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Nifty continues to be on "Sell on rises", closing below HEmas.
Seeking a reliable support continues. Thus far, no support has provided the impetus to take out the previous high-5722.
Below 5645-26DEma, 5616-34DEma would be a support followed by 5604-06.
Resistances @ 5688-5704.
Complex correction continues within the narrow range, taking up the crucial time. Patience.
Seeking a reliable support continues. Thus far, no support has provided the impetus to take out the previous high-5722.
Below 5645-26DEma, 5616-34DEma would be a support followed by 5604-06.
Resistances @ 5688-5704.
Complex correction continues within the narrow range, taking up the crucial time. Patience.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
"5604"-MHEma, the number Nifty/market would be obsessed with as a close above 5604 on 31st Oct would bring in "Monthly upward momentum".
Nifty is yet to reach the 38% retrace mark @ 5587, a slow fall towards it could adjust the ST technicals for a reversal. Hence, we watch the current fall with time factor as a critical input to understand the market.
For the day, there are resistances in the zone of 5687 onwards till 80% @ 5704- home to 5DEma, 21 & 34Hr smas, JNSAR, DHEma, 61.8% retrace of the current fall from 5719.
The supports would be in the region of 5634-37(recent lows) to 5613(34DEma).
Nilesh Patil's Input: I found that many of the JNSAR Traders may not get proper reentry with your premarket view or they are hesitant to take a reentry with 2nd lot. For those traders/ learners, I found one simple method to get reentry with JNSAR 2nd lot. When you are in the position of JNSAR & 1st lot booked, to initiate 2nd lot reentry, do settings 21ema and 34ema on 5 min. time-frame. When EMA's gives cross to downward then wait to give candle close below the 21,34. Take the trade in short. SL is above 21,34 ema close candle of swing high. For buy position, vice versa. This gives the trader a good reentry point with proper SL. of 10-15 points and thus he/she can get confidence on taking reentry on JNSAR.
...........................................................................................................
Harsh words are sure poison that spoils life. People's skills are sure highways to success. .. .
Nifty is yet to reach the 38% retrace mark @ 5587, a slow fall towards it could adjust the ST technicals for a reversal. Hence, we watch the current fall with time factor as a critical input to understand the market.
For the day, there are resistances in the zone of 5687 onwards till 80% @ 5704- home to 5DEma, 21 & 34Hr smas, JNSAR, DHEma, 61.8% retrace of the current fall from 5719.
The supports would be in the region of 5634-37(recent lows) to 5613(34DEma).
Nilesh Patil's Input: I found that many of the JNSAR Traders may not get proper reentry with your premarket view or they are hesitant to take a reentry with 2nd lot. For those traders/ learners, I found one simple method to get reentry with JNSAR 2nd lot. When you are in the position of JNSAR & 1st lot booked, to initiate 2nd lot reentry, do settings 21ema and 34ema on 5 min. time-frame. When EMA's gives cross to downward then wait to give candle close below the 21,34. Take the trade in short. SL is above 21,34 ema close candle of swing high. For buy position, vice versa. This gives the trader a good reentry point with proper SL. of 10-15 points and thus he/she can get confidence on taking reentry on JNSAR.
...........................................................................................................
Harsh words are sure poison that spoils life. People's skills are sure highways to success. .. .
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Words...And words are all I have...to take your heart away...
If one were to list the reasons for quarrels among couples, it is not money
mindedness that would top the list! The Words! Words that dissolve into thin
air the moment they are uttered are the main reason for causing bitterness in a
relationship between a husband and wife. Just a few words have dragged some
couples to courts! Mere words have made many couples to live like strangers
within the same household.
Here is a brief tale!A husband never bothered about the likes and dislikes of his wife. The wife's reciprocal attitude perfectly suited her husband. One night, the husband had not returned home till midnight. The wife, not worried about him, had long since retired to bed. In the middle of the night, there was a knock at the door.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Nifty has come to the edge of the triangle for a decisive move.
Last 2 hours' Hi-low would be deciders..."5718-5688".
Nifty has ended at Month open @ 5705. Weak below this to attempt week open @ 5668. or lower, the preferred view.(Conservative traders would take a cue from here). Hour charts @ OB zone.
If Nifty exhibits strength & move past 5718, it could attempt 5735-46(61.8%).
Last 2 hours' Hi-low would be deciders..."5718-5688".
Nifty has ended at Month open @ 5705. Weak below this to attempt week open @ 5668. or lower, the preferred view.(Conservative traders would take a cue from here). Hour charts @ OB zone.
If Nifty exhibits strength & move past 5718, it could attempt 5735-46(61.8%).
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
"5695"-a key number for the day besides having a number of averages/ emas, it is also closest to 5700CE/PE & the Hour down channel's break-out point.
VIX range is 5651 to 5737. Depending on opening session's positioning vis-a-vis VIX range, Nifty is expected to reach the other extreme.
Hourly channel support comes around 5675-80 zone from where a bounce could materialise. Break below it, the next support is in the zone of 5655-65.
"5720" continues to be the resistance above which "rounding bottom" could assert itself though there are resistances @ 5755 & 5780(80%)
Range contraction is on with highs stagnant @ 5722,5721 and
lows rising from 5633 to 5658 & today's "xxxx".
VIX range is 5651 to 5737. Depending on opening session's positioning vis-a-vis VIX range, Nifty is expected to reach the other extreme.
Hourly channel support comes around 5675-80 zone from where a bounce could materialise. Break below it, the next support is in the zone of 5655-65.
"5720" continues to be the resistance above which "rounding bottom" could assert itself though there are resistances @ 5755 & 5780(80%)
Range contraction is on with highs stagnant @ 5722,5721 and
lows rising from 5633 to 5658 & today's "xxxx".
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Happy Dussehra
A day of celebrations of good over evil.
We celebrate "Ram's victory over Ravan". And it happened thousands of years ago. And we continue to do celebrations and stopped at that. Only a handful have gone on to fight the good fight to overcome the evil within us. Others simply complain of the evil around us.
Nothing can manifest around you if it does not reside in you.
If corruption is around you, kill the corruption inside you first and the external corruption will come to an end. It would take years but that is "the only way". The impatient one gets nothing done.
If there is ignorance around you, light a lamp of knowledge within you.
"Pick my brain" & don't "pick on me"; and pick up "something" from my observations as well as from the few "seniors" here. Understand firstly that market is dynamic...a continually changing place.
And if you find that difficult, you need to brush up on the basics again & again before entering here.
Stock market is "the most" wonderful place to make money "for the prepared".
And stock market is "the most hellish place" to loose money "for the unprepared".
What are you?
Are you prepared?...prepared with a plan and applying yourself? The measure of your preparedness should reflect in your successes. If there is no success, then you have still not reached that "preparedness".
If you're you not prepared? - Go away, spend good amount of time preparing yourself, while watching the market with detachment but only for study purposes while "saving money for the capital".
Do you find the market difficult to "master", Stay away till you master the market study & its application.
Persons who have no focus would indulge in all kinds of activities except the one that matters the most -"of making money".
Stay focused on the purpose of making money.
Stay prepared.
This is the only way to master your way around to make money. Sportsmen don't whine; they just get on with the next attempt and the next and on & on. They carry on with continuous preparations against the opponents who change everyday and each challenge is faced with a new preparation. Each game is played with gay abandon but with sharp focus and with the seriousness it deserves.
If you do not consider it serious enough, it'll reflect in your results. Rarely a sportman blames another for his defeat. He owns up, reflects on it cool headedly, learns something new and move on more prepared.
Move on.
Get Rich Slowly and Quietly.
Happy Dussehra. May Lord Ram's blessings be showered on you.
We celebrate "Ram's victory over Ravan". And it happened thousands of years ago. And we continue to do celebrations and stopped at that. Only a handful have gone on to fight the good fight to overcome the evil within us. Others simply complain of the evil around us.
If corruption is around you, kill the corruption inside you first and the external corruption will come to an end. It would take years but that is "the only way". The impatient one gets nothing done.
If there is ignorance around you, light a lamp of knowledge within you.
"Pick my brain" & don't "pick on me"; and pick up "something" from my observations as well as from the few "seniors" here. Understand firstly that market is dynamic...a continually changing place.
And if you find that difficult, you need to brush up on the basics again & again before entering here.
Stock market is "the most" wonderful place to make money "for the prepared".
And stock market is "the most hellish place" to loose money "for the unprepared".
What are you?
Are you prepared?...prepared with a plan and applying yourself? The measure of your preparedness should reflect in your successes. If there is no success, then you have still not reached that "preparedness".
If you're you not prepared? - Go away, spend good amount of time preparing yourself, while watching the market with detachment but only for study purposes while "saving money for the capital".
Do you find the market difficult to "master", Stay away till you master the market study & its application.
Persons who have no focus would indulge in all kinds of activities except the one that matters the most -"of making money".
Stay focused on the purpose of making money.
Stay prepared.
This is the only way to master your way around to make money. Sportsmen don't whine; they just get on with the next attempt and the next and on & on. They carry on with continuous preparations against the opponents who change everyday and each challenge is faced with a new preparation. Each game is played with gay abandon but with sharp focus and with the seriousness it deserves.
If you do not consider it serious enough, it'll reflect in your results. Rarely a sportman blames another for his defeat. He owns up, reflects on it cool headedly, learns something new and move on more prepared.
Move on.
Get Rich Slowly and Quietly.
Happy Dussehra. May Lord Ram's blessings be showered on you.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Nifty, presently, is consolidating around 5684-90 to 5715-20. Keep the 5658 to 5722 retrace in focus for the opening session.
Decisive move above 5720 would take it higher towards 5745-55, 5775 or higher.
A rounding bottom formation is under progress. Follow it as long as it holds above 5650.
Decisive move above 5720 would take it higher towards 5745-55, 5775 or higher.
A rounding bottom formation is under progress. Follow it as long as it holds above 5650.
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