Monday, November 30, 2009

Nifty reacts from 5065 resistance.

Upsides possible if Nifty stays above 5050.
Pivot has shot up from 4900 to 5024.

Weekly High ema @ 5065 resisted the upmove presently.

Nifty Intraday Update

Nifty Premarket View

Nifty has played two fractals of "Day" in the "Hour" time frame to near perfection and is in the process of playing the "Third" one now(All three marked in Red, Blue & Pink).
If this third also plays to perfection, Nifty could scale 5050++ easily and then fall sharply in the next 3-4 days. Position yourself accordingly.


Saturday, November 28, 2009

Time for Thanksgiving...

I try not to be biased, but I had my doubts about hiring Stevie. His placement counselor assured me that he would be a good, reliable busboy. But I had never had a mentally handicapped employee and wasn't sure I wanted one. I wasn't sure how my customers would react. Stevie was short, a little dumpy, with the smooth facial features and thick-tongued speech of Down syndrome. I wasn't worried about most of my trucker customers. Truckers don't generally care who buses tables as long as the food is good and the pies are homemade.
The ones who concerned me were the mouthy college kids traveling to school; the yuppie snobs who secretly polish their silverware with their napkins for fear of catching some dreaded "truckstop germ;" and the pairs of white-shirted business men on expense accounts who think every truckstop waitress wants to be flirted with. I knew those people would be uncomfortable around Stevie, so I closely watched him for the first few weeks.I shouldn't have worried. After the first week, Stevie had my staff wrapped around his stubby little finger. Within a month my truck regulars had adopted him as their official truckstop mascot. After that I really didn't care what the rest of the customers thought.
He was a 21-year-old in blue jeans and Nikes, eager to laugh and eager to please, but fierce in his attention to his duties. Every salt and pepper shaker was exactly in its place, not a bread crumb or coffee spill was visible when Stevie got done with the table. Our only problem was convincing him to wait to clean a table until after the customers were finished. He would hover in the background, shifting his weight from one foot to the other, scanning the dining room until a table was empty. Then he would scurry to the empty table and carefully bus the dishes and glasses onto the cart and meticulously wipe the table with a practiced flourish of his rag. If he thought a customer was watching, his brow would pucker with added concentration. He took pride in doing his job exactly right, and you had to love how hard he tried to please each and every person he met.

Over time, we learned that he lived with his mother, a widow who was disabled after repeated surgeries for cancer. They lived on their Social Security benefits in public housing two miles from the truckstop. Their social worker, who stopped to check on him every so often, admitted they had fallen between the cracks.
Money was tight, and what I paid him was probably the difference between them being able to live together and Stevie being sent to a group home.That's why the restaurant was a gloomy place that morning last August, the first morning in three years that Stevie missed work. He was at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester getting a new valve or something put in his heart. His social worker said that people with Down syndrome often have heart problems at an early age, so this wasn't unexpected. There was a good chance he would come through the surgery in good shape and be back at work in a few months. A ripple of excitement ran through the staff later that morning when word came that he was out of surgery, in recovery and doing fine. Frannie, my head waitress, let out a war whoop and did a little dance the aisle when she heard the good news. Belle Ringer, one of our regular trucker customers, grinned. "Okay, Frannie, what was that all about?" he asked. "We just got word that Stevie is out of surgery and going to be okay,” she responded. “I was wondering where he was," said Belle.
Frannie quickly told him and the other two drivers sitting at his booth about Stevie's surgery, then sighed. "Yeah, I m glad he is going to be okay," she said, "but I don't know how he and his mom are going to handle all the bills. From what I hear, they're barely getting by as it is." Belle Ringer nodded thoughtfully, and Frannie hurried off to wait on the rest of her tables.After the morning rush, Frannie walked into my office. She had a couple of paper napkins in her hand a funny look on her face. "What's up?" I asked. "That table where Belle Ringer and his friends were sitting," she said, "this was folded and tucked under a coffee cup." She handed the napkin to me, and three $20 bills fell onto my desk when I opened it.
On the outside, in big, bold letters, was printed “Something For Stevie.”"Pony Pete also asked me what that dance was all about," she said, "so I told him about Stevie and his mom and everything, and Pete looked at Tony and Tony looked at Pete, and they ended up giving me this." She handed me another paper napkin that had "Something For Stevie" scrawled on its outside. Two $50 bills were tucked within its folds. Frannie looked at me with wet, shiny eyes, shook her head and said simply, "Truckers."That was three months ago. Today is Thanksgiving, the first day Stevie is supposed to be back to work. His placement worker said he's been counting the days until the doctor said he could work, and it didn't matter at all that it was a holiday. He called 10 times in the past week, making sure we knew he was coming, fearful that we had forgotten him or that his job was in jeopardy.
I arranged to have his mother bring him to work. We met them in the parking lot and invited them both to celebrate his day back. Stevie was thinner and paler, but couldn't stop grinning as he pushed through the doors and headed for the back room where his apron and busing cart were waiting. "Hold up there, Stevie, not so fast, "I said. I took him and his mother by their arms. "Work can wait for a minute. To celebrate you coming back, breakfast for you two is on me. I led them toward a large corner booth at the rear of the room. I could feel and hear the rest of the staff following behind as we marched through the dining room.
Glancing over my shoulder, I saw booth after booth of grinning truckers empty and join the procession.We stopped in front of the big table; its surface covered with a mess of coffee cups, saucers and dinner plates, all sitting crooked on dozens of folded paper napkins. "First thing you have to do, Stevie, is clean up this mess," I said, trying to sound stern. Stevie looked at me, and then at his mother, then pulled out one of the napkins. It had "Something for Stevie" printed on the outside. As he picked it up, two $10 bills fell onto the table. Stevie stared at the money, then at dozens of napkins peeking from beneath the tableware, each with his name printed or scrawled on it.
I turned to his mother. "There's over $10,000 in cash and checks on that table, all from truckers and trucking companies that heard about your problems. Happy Thanksgiving!" Well, it got real noisy about that time, with everybody hollering and shouting, and there were a few tears, too. But you know what's funny? While everybody else was busy shaking hands and hugging each other, Stevie, with a big, big smile on his face, was busy clearing all the cups and dishes from the table... best worker I ever hired.
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And all they really need is a feeling of being a part of the society.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Nifty generous to both "Bears & Bulls"..

Managed to close above the falling 5-week avg but below 5-week ema(4953) which is also the high of the day.That was an attempt to close above that ema.
If Oversold "Hang seng" has a relief rally, Nifty may continue its rally towards 5015 to 5035++ and drift lower there after.And if the weakness continues, Nifty too will slide down.
For option traders: Try to write options during extreme conditions in the first half of the series to benefit from both time decay as well as strong shorter term reversals.Do not buy Puts when Nifty is oversold but wait for your opportunity to enable you to hold your positions with lesser risk.

A sharp rebound after a "331" point fall. GOlden ratio 61.82% retracement comes @ 5012 which is "5-Day ema".

Today's low coincided with "Weekly low ema". Unable to close above "Day low ema"

HongKong Index- A major break down.

Nifty Intra Update.

The last support for a bounce is closer to the weekly Low ema..(4820-4825)
If it is a combination of "abc-x-abc", it may bounce well. If it is a 5 wave structure, it may fall again after a brief bounce.


Nifty PreMarket View.

The simple analysis has been that the fall of "5182 to 4539" retraced the earlier rise from 4577 to 5182 in quicker time signalling a reversal. As the fall was continuous without a pause or consolidation, the retracement rally was swift and it could not retrace that fall in quicker time. The move from 4539 to 5138 was in a clear "abc" pattern and the sharp reversal, expecially on the settlement day, indicates a reversal to the down move. Technicals support such a view and the global cues too.

I would look for 4838(50%) or 4860 an earlier pivot to hold for any bullish view. Looking at the way the world mkts were stretched making all the bears into bulls and then falling suddenly, especially when the $ was hitting new low, is a smart way to lull all the bulls into watching the $ moves & then dump it all in a swift way.

Our markets too suggested similarly with two days of "intra day falls" but closing firm, thereby keeping the Technicals intact(As all the TA is based on close prices) and then sliding down upto 5060 quietly & then a sharp fall yesterday.

Downside target: If 4838-4860 does not hold, then A = C would be 4495(5138 - (5182-4539=643))

Nowadays, the divergences do not result in immediate price reversals. They test your "Patience" with multiple divergences and then fall. But fall they ultimately do.

I am still of the view that after this correction which might last 10-15 days and if 4400-4500 can hold, Nifty should start on its last upmove to 5400-5500 or more. I see "the whole of trading post election results as one big consolidation". Being a big consolidation, it provides huge trading opportunities if one could identify the "reversals within" in quicker time.

"I might not be available for the first session". Wish you a safe trading.


Thursday, November 26, 2009

Nifty seeking 4900++ again..!


Firstly a "Big Thank you" to Hemanta for contributing for the benefit of many.
And I appreciate everyone's participation here..quite enriching..
Technical set up is fast changing requiring a decisive weekly close.



A clear break in the Hourly channel @ 5050 today.

The importance of these numbers & their positioning can never be underestimated..

Nifty breaks the channel &TA turns down


Nifty update.

At 1.10PM: Above 5087, it is a break out for short term.
Turns out to be another false break out.
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At 11.30AM: A false break out..Holding morning low of 5079, if it can move past 5098, a break out is possible.
Weak Asia is a dampener.


On the verge of a "Break-out"..??

Nifty Pre Market View.

"5040" is the channel support.
Below which a deeper correction possibility..


Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Nifty on its final surge..??

Intra day weakness & a firm close was witnessed in the last two days. A close below the 5 DMA or the previous day's low would warn of a short term reversal. The following is another possible scenario, provided 4933 holds.


Nifty Intra Update

At 2.03PM: Hourly momentum has weakened..(Closed below HH ema)
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At 12.30PM: Minor negative divergences visible in intra charts.
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As "ORB" has given a "BUY" since opening, Conservative long remains.
One can book out(Optional) at 5145.

Nifty PreMarket View

A most likely a range trading day within the Resistances & Supports & Pivots mentioned.
Trade those points for the day.
Asia is muted & coming off their highs as of now.
Below 5053, >5045 & 5025.
Above 5115, > 5125 & 5145.


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Nifty's intra weakness & firm close..

Nifty trending up in the channel, keeping above 5DMA with intra day corrections.. A daily close below 5063 would be a first weakness. Channel supports come around 5022(Weekly Pivot).

Intra weakness was noticed at the 10.00AM itself and Nifty moved towards 5 ema @ 5051 and bounced off it, retracing most of the fall & then fell towards the end, keeping the "Hourly momentum" down & Daily momentum escaping with average close calculations..

Nifty Intraday update

At 3.27PM: Weakness crept into Daily too. Exit/ part book out of Longs.



At 10.35: First hour close is weak. I will try & update this each hour today..Below 5093(Day's Pivot), Nifty will be weak towards 5050-5040.

Nifty PreMarket View.

Trading range narrowed down during last week and the break out looks muted with limited upsides. Unless "5182" is not surpassed quickly, Nifty may drift lower after spending a range bound moves in 5050-5150 range..So trade light.
What has been labelled as "abc" (Red), will change to "1,2,3.i" in case 5182 is taken out.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Nifty's fast rising Pivot is @ 5093 ?!


Nifty PreMarket view

In the very short term, Nifty has turned "UP". "5035" is a crucial support for the day. As of now, the view is that the upsides are limited...
It is an uncertain zone...there are many possibilities running with different time cycles. Trade light. In the very short term, both longs & shorts need to be quick to take their profits until some clarity emerges.
My preferred view is - Nifty is correcting the fall from 5182-4539 and it can come all the way upto 5150++ or fall right away as in 2nd wave OR can clear 5182++ also as in an irregular "b" wave, etc...

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Good Bye, Grandpa..

My grandparents came to visit last week and I was very happy.my grandpa has a skin condition in his leg which won't heal and when he came to see me he told me that all those years of medication began to work and he told me that it was a good experience going through such a big disease where the body began to kill it's own cells.We set cuddled together as he told me about his younger days when he used to watch British troupes move along the roads before independence.He always encourages me to do what I want in life and he told me about how he had very close fiends from when he was a boy till now,some of them gave him money and he repaid them too ,and then he said to me " Be a good friend and you will attract good friends" and I was touched.Then he told me that some his close friends died recently annd how close they were.Then he told me "I've reached the end of my life,But happily,i'm leaving here having happy children and lots of grandchildren",for this my emotions couldn't handle,and tears dropped down my eyes and I cuddled closer to my grandpa.He said,"Never be sorry,always be happy""Do your best,I want to see you do your best".I went out of the room and cried for a while,because I couldn't bear the fact that my dear grandpa was going to leave soon........It's the moments spent when a person is alive that counts...he is so loving and really loves us all and im moved by his care..though sometimes he may be a bit cranky and uptight,...He is my greatest hero,my grandpa!


He always taught all his grandchildren wisdom which he gathered through his life..he wants us to know something he learnt all his life so we get that experience at a young age.I will tell you what he tells us.
these are his teachings - Life is the journey between birth and death.there are three C's-Concentrate, clarify,contemplate where one must concentrate,then clear all doubts, and repeatedly relearn it.543-Think,plan,act is what you must do before doing any task.knowledge,skill,attitude is very important in a person's life.Wisdom is the way of using knowledge.Always do the right task at the right time at the right place.Always give concern for quality,quantity and productivity before buying anything,always think if anything you do is useful or not.
These are his teachings,I love him so much and value everything he said and i try to follow them.
Then I went to my grandma as she came along with grandpa to visit.she was sleeping and I held her hand and sat there....she looked at me and she smiles....and we have a little chat and then its time for them to go home...I kiss my grandma and say bye to them and they go home...and as usual,there are petals of flowers on the sofa to show us that grandmas was there...those flowers on her hair fall of on the sofa and after they're gone,i smile as i look at the petals.i love my grandparents!!!!!!!!!A grandparent is a babysitter who watches the kids instead of television!i love you!
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I have been wanting to put up this above post from my son's blog this week which he had posted after his grandfather's visit home last week.
He left us this morning and he is inconsolable. He wanted to show it to his grandpa but he was not in a state to read it. And now he has gone, he left even an unshakable quite moved. He touched our life quite deeply. Times like these reveal how much you care about your close ones and how much they have enriched our lives..Good Bye..
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Friday, November 20, 2009

Nifty's dramatic rebound from it's weekly Pivot.

Once again Market humbles a confident trader who was not prepared for a "Contingency plan"..A lesson well learnt without much damage. They don't say that lightly.."Market is a worthy opponent".
Another reminder for reversing a trade when a clear "5" is done, especially with a triangle for the "4th". (Triangle clear in th 5-minute chart.) Triangles in 4th is always an early warning/signal of the last move in that direction.
The current uptrend from 4539 which was reversed yesterday has got back into it's uptrend.
Weekly & Daily Pivots are now at 5022 & 5016 and that is the critical support for this upmove.


Inspite of the sharp rebound, Day high ema is not cleared on closing basis but weekly momentum is back.

Nifty Observations by "Hemanta"...

One of the mature traders here "Hemanta" has this to say:
Ideal trade according to TA was:

1. book ur short around weekly pivot@4935(also weekly ema5 was 4937, so that was much strong support) sl was daily pivot@5002 or 5010.
2. fresh short only below 4920(4925 5 day swing low as ilango said with sl 4938.
3. fresh long @4935 with sl 4920 (still continue with sl 5020,next wk pivot@5020 strongest support now)
3. now the market has changed the direction completely, above 5080 fresh longs for possible target @5105, next 5165. SL 5060.

Sharing such observations will enrich the visitors and make them "Better prepared" and not take market for granted..

Nifty Update

At 2.30PM: If Nifty closes above 5012, Exit shorts. (Positional). Besides the expected WEAK Weekly close may not happen. Let us exit & review at week end.
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At 1.20PM: Aggressive traders may book partial profits &
re-enter shorts at higher levels..(Optional)

Nifty PreMarket View



Thursday, November 19, 2009

Nifty caves in after persistent -ve div..

Nifty has closed decisively below 5 DMA and broke the channel too and thus turning the short term trend to Down. A correct rally, if any at this stage,may find multiple resistances at previous supports @ 5015 & 5045. Fall may find temporary supports @ 4900-4940 unless global cues are terrible.

Four days gone by, Nifty could not touch the Weekly R1 and reversing towards Week Pivot @ 4934. Bulls may fight for 5028(Week high ema) as well as 5048(Day High ema). It is tough..

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....