Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Uptrend's longevity depends on today's close above either 5173 or 5189, MEma/MSma.
A move past "5213-18" would set it for larger retracement (5349 to 5033) and
a move past 5286 for a much larger retracement...(5630 to 4770).
If the day ends positively, it is most likely the week too could end favourably to bulls.
Two immediate resistances are: 5258 & 5280-86.
Two immediate supports are:5190 & 5160.
Bulls enter this eventful day with "Hour/Day/Month uptrend" on their side while Bears have "Week's downtrend " on their side.
Today's day belongs to "Month"...not the week.
It is either asserting its uptrend or set the stage for a reversal.
A move past "5213-18" would set it for larger retracement (5349 to 5033) and
a move past 5286 for a much larger retracement...(5630 to 4770).
If the day ends positively, it is most likely the week too could end favourably to bulls.
Two immediate resistances are: 5258 & 5280-86.
Two immediate supports are:5190 & 5160.
Bulls enter this eventful day with "Hour/Day/Month uptrend" on their side while Bears have "Week's downtrend " on their side.
Today's day belongs to "Month"...not the week.
It is either asserting its uptrend or set the stage for a reversal.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Dear Gauresh...Our prayers and best wishes for your early recovery.
...........................................................................................................
Nifty continues to be trading in the downtrending/ consolidating channel.
Nifty stopped @ 61.8% of the last rise from 5033 to 5150 @ 5078.
Nifty needs to trade & close above 61.8% of the last minor fall from 5150 to 5078@5123 for minor strength.
Nifty needs to trade & close above 61.8% of the last major fall from 5258 to 5033@5172 for minor strength.(5173, also the MEma & now the WEma too.)
"4991" is the 61.8% of the last major rise from 4770-5349.....Bearish below this & the Major channel support.
The struggle will be for the Month trend in the coming two days....for "5173".
...........................................................................................................
Nifty continues to be trading in the downtrending/ consolidating channel.
Nifty stopped @ 61.8% of the last rise from 5033 to 5150 @ 5078.
Nifty needs to trade & close above 61.8% of the last minor fall from 5150 to 5078@5123 for minor strength.
Nifty needs to trade & close above 61.8% of the last major fall from 5258 to 5033@5172 for minor strength.(5173, also the MEma & now the WEma too.)
"4991" is the 61.8% of the last major rise from 4770-5349.....Bearish below this & the Major channel support.
The struggle will be for the Month trend in the coming two days....for "5173".
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Well tried, Kavita Raut...we are proud of you.
In the race of life, what is necessary to surge ahead is
Appearances can be deceiving - this proverb appropriately describes Kavita Raut, India's leading long distance runner. There are many athletes who had been running many miles to school every day, before their talent was recognized.
- arduous efforts,
- formidable willpower and above all
- insuperable perseverance
Friday, July 27, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
Our preferred view has been:
Nifty has been attempting to find a bottom in the earlier consolidation zone of 5042-96 and its daily TA is poised at a critical point where reversal or a resumption of downward momentum is possible.
Our preferred view has been one of consolidation ending @ 5042-96 (or in some extreme bearishness to 4991-61.8% retrace of 4770 to 5349 below which deeper falls likely).
EW points to extreme points to take action....Doubters have no place in such a situation.(Once a plan is in place based on the study, you must follow it if you believe in it....I can't risk your money but my studies are quite objective)
"5094", the Thursday intraday support (Now DLEma)before the break down would be a decider for the day.
A close above 5106/5113 would be preferable for a reversal signal..
Nifty has been attempting to find a bottom in the earlier consolidation zone of 5042-96 and its daily TA is poised at a critical point where reversal or a resumption of downward momentum is possible.
Our preferred view has been one of consolidation ending @ 5042-96 (or in some extreme bearishness to 4991-61.8% retrace of 4770 to 5349 below which deeper falls likely).
EW points to extreme points to take action....Doubters have no place in such a situation.(Once a plan is in place based on the study, you must follow it if you believe in it....I can't risk your money but my studies are quite objective)
"5094", the Thursday intraday support (Now DLEma)before the break down would be a decider for the day.
A close above 5106/5113 would be preferable for a reversal signal..
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Nifty, trending down, had a good "downday" breaking the "5097".
Congrats to Nilesh Despande for winning the "Expiry contest".
Your ATR strategy is new to me.
I have heard a lot about ATR but couldn't get it in my excel sheet.
I would, henceforth, take some interest in this old study which is new to me.
Thank you, Jiignesh.
Your ATR strategy is new to me.
I have heard a lot about ATR but couldn't get it in my excel sheet.
I would, henceforth, take some interest in this old study which is new to me.
Thank you, Jiignesh.
Nifty Pre-Market View.
"5148" is the resistance above 5120.
"5097" is the minor support.
Nifty has been attempting to find a bottom in the earlier consolidation zone of 5042-96 and
its daily TA is poised at a critical point where reversal or a resumption of downward momentum is possible.
Our preferred view has been one of consolidation ending @ 5042-96 (or in some extreme bearishness to 4991-61.8% retrace of 4770 to 5349 below which deeper falls likely).
However, the reversal signals are yet to emerge.
If 5097 holds in the first session, a move above 5120 would be +ve initially.
"5097" is the minor support.
Nifty has been attempting to find a bottom in the earlier consolidation zone of 5042-96 and
its daily TA is poised at a critical point where reversal or a resumption of downward momentum is possible.
Our preferred view has been one of consolidation ending @ 5042-96 (or in some extreme bearishness to 4991-61.8% retrace of 4770 to 5349 below which deeper falls likely).
However, the reversal signals are yet to emerge.
If 5097 holds in the first session, a move above 5120 would be +ve initially.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
23rd July Pre-Market View:
Nifty, in its short term reversal, could go only up to the 1st resistance of the 5258-66-73 and the gap @ 5267-5300 remains unfilled.
During this period, Nifty continued to close below JNSAR. OI data, provided during market hours by Sanjay Jaiswal, presented an unusual bearish picture on Friday with across the board unwinding of PEs and aggressive writing of CEs.
Our own settlement theory of Nifty closing towards the "maximum pain area" suggested that Nifty is likely to close near the lows since it was closer to the lower range of 5169 to 5349.
A likely gap down @ MEma(5173) or below would take it to/ below WLEma(5130) and in extreme bearish conditions would attempt the "starting point of last upmove of 5125/5096".
38% retrace of 4770 to 5349 is @ 5129.
50% retrace of 4770 to 5349 is @ 5060 & 61.8% @ 4991.
24th July Pre-Market View:
"5093-96"-50 & 200 Sma is the crucial support.
"5155-75"-DLEma/MEma/50% & 61.8% retrace is the resistance.
Nifty found support @ 5093-96 for some days before it moved higher to 5349 and the same is likely to offer support failing which, the next support is likely to be 5040-65 zone.
Similarly, Nifty faced resistances @ 5144-60-95 zone during the earlier consolidation.
Larger weakness may be considered only on a firm break down of 5040.
25th July Pre-Market View:
Nifty faced resistance @ 5144.
There are multiple Month/ week averages @ 5091-5124 as the crucial supports. Closing below these at week's close/ month's Close would be bearish.
Intra drop upto 5091-97 or 5040-60 while taking more time is acceptable as a corrective.
Nifty, in its short term reversal, could go only up to the 1st resistance of the 5258-66-73 and the gap @ 5267-5300 remains unfilled.
During this period, Nifty continued to close below JNSAR. OI data, provided during market hours by Sanjay Jaiswal, presented an unusual bearish picture on Friday with across the board unwinding of PEs and aggressive writing of CEs.
Our own settlement theory of Nifty closing towards the "maximum pain area" suggested that Nifty is likely to close near the lows since it was closer to the lower range of 5169 to 5349.
A likely gap down @ MEma(5173) or below would take it to/ below WLEma(5130) and in extreme bearish conditions would attempt the "starting point of last upmove of 5125/5096".
38% retrace of 4770 to 5349 is @ 5129.
50% retrace of 4770 to 5349 is @ 5060 & 61.8% @ 4991.
24th July Pre-Market View:
"5093-96"-50 & 200 Sma is the crucial support.
"5155-75"-DLEma/MEma/50% & 61.8% retrace is the resistance.
Nifty found support @ 5093-96 for some days before it moved higher to 5349 and the same is likely to offer support failing which, the next support is likely to be 5040-65 zone.
Similarly, Nifty faced resistances @ 5144-60-95 zone during the earlier consolidation.
Larger weakness may be considered only on a firm break down of 5040.
25th July Pre-Market View:
Nifty faced resistance @ 5144.
There are multiple Month/ week averages @ 5091-5124 as the crucial supports. Closing below these at week's close/ month's Close would be bearish.
Intra drop upto 5091-97 or 5040-60 while taking more time is acceptable as a corrective.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Nifty Pre-Market View.
"5093-96"-50 & 200 Sma is the crucial support.
"5155-75"-DLEma/MEma/50% & 61.8% retrace is the resistance.
Nifty found support @ 5093-96 for some days before it moved higher to 5349 and
the same is likely to offer support failing which, the next support is likely to be 5040-65 zone.
Similarly, Nifty faced resistances @ 5144-60-95 zone during the earlier consolidation.
Larger weakness may be considered only on a firm break down of 5040.
"5155-75"-DLEma/MEma/50% & 61.8% retrace is the resistance.
Nifty found support @ 5093-96 for some days before it moved higher to 5349 and
the same is likely to offer support failing which, the next support is likely to be 5040-65 zone.
Similarly, Nifty faced resistances @ 5144-60-95 zone during the earlier consolidation.
Larger weakness may be considered only on a firm break down of 5040.
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Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
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