Nifty has broken below 4720-4730 support zone firmly and also closed below the same.In a strongly trending down market:
I have often stated this about +ve div that during the 3rd wave, bulls get trapped by +ve div. The start of the 3rd wave (or C wave) often has a +ve div.
But it is not a rule. Do not look at Hour/ 5-min etc when a trend is strong meaning either at its initial stage or midway without showing any signs of exhaustion. Instead, keep an eye on daily oscillators such as roc, macd & rsi. (Roc has just entered -ve zone, 9-rsi has been moving down for the past 4-5 days and has just entered below 20, macd triggered down while being in the -ve zone). Above all, month macd is poised to move into -ve zone this month.
Having said all these, the Tech.table's month/ week/ day parameters are in the red which take into a/c the closing prices. On Friday, the trading began with "Thursday's EOD TA being clearly down" and the intra rally could not move past the prev. pivot high of 4840, came close to Monday's JNSAR of 4833 and fell near 200 points. This once again reinforces the EOD's supremacy over intra moves.
In sum, It is evident that never to trust a +ve div in the 3rd waves commencement and when Day TA is midway down.
I have been beaten by the Hour TA often when I lose sight of the powerful higher T/F strength/ weaknesses.
If 4600 holds, a pause is likely and use intraday rally to initiate shorts till the EOD TA changes the picture.
I repeat this again: In a trending market, the oscillators tend to stay down and the force increases. If the Hour TA & Day TA could produce so much force, think about the week & month's TA when they start to spend time below the 20 mark.
For SAM(Sumit): Why Hour chart has 21 hr sma? - It is simply the 3 day sma as IB provides me with 7 hour data for each day (9.15 to 10.00;.....;3.00 to 3.30)
Why J10SAR for the day keep changing while JNSAR don't? JNSAR is fixed for the day and J10 SAR too is fixed which is the "previous day's 10ema". However, the current day's J10sar will keep changing in the TT based on each hour's close but settles down at 3.30PM Close data and the same becomes next day's J10SAR. The JustNifty TA file uploaded at the top right corner of the blog will show you how to calculate 10ema.
