Nifty has managed the channel so far....how long.??

Corrective bounce got resisted at Friday's lows.. Further decisive moves may happen tomorrow based on world mkt cues..Resistances seen at 3035-3075 above which mildly bullish upto 3100. On the other hand, a fall below 3010-3000 may break the channel decisively to head to 2946(10 DMA).
The Pivot & the R1 played well for the day. Two possibilities of corrections are labelled in the 5 & 1 minute charts.

Nifty starts to correct from "OB" levels..

The -ve div in the "OB" area got confirmed by a break below 3070 at the open and Nifty kept sliding down and stopped just at the channel bottom.
After the weekly's continued uptrend, the daily has turned down which can take it down upto 2915 or 2860 area with brief bounces and rallies. The more time it takes to trade these points will point to a correction but a quicker fall will put a question mark on this uptrend. So trade light on these points till the correction shows +ve div or a breakdown occurs below 2860.

Aban..looks bullish

This is one of the market favourite but fell from a high of 5400 to 220 due to market sentiment.It shows strong reversal on a completed wave structure with +ve div appearing in daily & weekly charts. Volume pattern suggests a continuation of uptrend towards 512 + in the short term and 825 + in the medium term...Corrections if any may be restricted to 400 for Monday and may change subsequently as per price behaviour.SL for longs should be 345.The rising channel support comes at 375. Exit on this channel break..

Let me thank "Sweety" for bringing my attention to this stock as it reinforces my EW of index & other stocks.I was also able to develop a quick file for this stock which could be duplicated for studying other stocks.

A saint in the wrong place

By Paulo Coelho

‘Why is it that some people can resolve the most complicated problems really easily, whilst others agonise over every tiny crisis and end up drowning in a glass of water?’ I asked.

Ramesh replied by telling the following story:

‘Once upon a time, there was a man who had been the soul of kindness all his life. When he died, everyone assumed that he would go straight to Heaven, for the only possible place for a good man like him was Paradise. The man wasn’t particularly bothered about going to Heaven, but that was where he went.

Now in those days, service in heaven was not all that it might be. The reception desk was extremely inefficient, and the girl who received him gave only a cursory glance through the index cards before her and when she couldn’t find the man’s name, she sent him straight to Hell.


And in Hell no one asks to check your badge or your invitation, for anyone who turns up is invited in. The man entered and stayed…

Some days later, Lucifer stormed up to the gates of Heaven to demand an explanation from St Peter.

"What you’re doing is pure terrorism!" he said.

St Peter asked why Lucifer was so angry, and an enraged Lucifer replied:

"You sent that man down into Hell, and he’s completely undermining me! Right from the start, there he was listening to people, looking them in the eye, talking to them. And now everyone’s sharing their feelings and hugging and kissing. That’s not the sort of thing I want in Hell! Please, let him into Heaven!’

When Ramesh had finished telling the story, he looked at me fondly and said:

‘Live your life with so much love in your heart that if, by mistake, you were sent to Hell, the Devil himself would deliver you up to Paradise.’

******************************************************************************

This one is for my Parents and Jay.....

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Nifty's trending up within the channel but slows down....

Nifty gains spectacularly in its third week of uptrend. "OB" with -ve div will get corrected with intra moves and may be for a couple of days in the coming week but the weekly gains will continue. Rotational stock buying is being seen. Last two previous tops at 3147 and 3241 will be scaled soon.
Trade the channels and use the pivot points for some guidance.
As we are trading below the 200DMA, I have also posted a bearish scenario at the bottom.

For Monday, if 3125 is not crossed in the opening hour & 3095/3070 is broken, a correction may set in till 3010-2925 area. If market moves past 3125, it may head towards 3147 +.....
Would the markets listen to saner voice to take a couple of days break to journey up comfortably..??? Market is always crazy..and you got to be crazy to deal with it..No saner approach will help.

Nifty shows -ve div in 5min & Hour but not confirmed by prices...

Now that the March series is out of the way, technicals and value buying should come into play during the start of the new April series.
Though there is negative divergences in both 5-minute & Hourly timeframes, only a weak trading below 3050 and an hourly close below 3035 will confirm it.
Pivot for tomorrow being 3066 & the s1 @3028 may offer a support while R1 @ 3120 may be a resistance area.
Daily trend is firmly up and Nifty is trending up within the channel(A steep channel..!!-how long will it go.??). Intra dips may be used to buy..Part booking on sharp rises is not a bad idea.

Nifty-The big picture..!!

The current week's move clearly out of the simple sloping down channel. More gains to be had in the coming weeks.
Volume based buying is being seen.
For Positional traders, no better time than this to go long, if not done earlier. That explains the slowly increasing April Premium.

I have reworked on the counts, looking at the overall bullishness..

Nifty firm ahead of settlement, finding support @ 5DMA

Nifty, though overbought, has not shown any negative divergences in the hour, day yet . Yesterday's intra negative div got dealt with promptly and Nifty bounced off the 5 day avg..Buy on dips continues. Last hurdle seems to be 3030. A firm close above that, may speed things up.
As long as Nifty moves up in this channel, no threat as yet.
A likely range of 3040 to 2940 for the settlement day..!! Just a wild guess..It can change depending on the world mkts.

For investors, there is a small write up here worth reading:
Indian Stocks: Urgent Opportunity Announcement

Nifty gets resisted above 3000, to seek 2860 for support

Nifty has retraced the last fall from 2970 to 2539 in shorter duration, indicating a first signal of a possible trend reversal. This helps in looking at the fall as profit booking or a correction to the sharp rise. Retracement of 0.236 @ 2904; of 0.38 @ 2835; 0.50 @ 2778 and 0.6182 @ 2721 and an "a-b-c" form in the correction to be looked out for. During this correction, Nifty can go past 3017 as a "b" wave too. Nature of correction and the volume will guide us through this phase. So a broader trading range of 2780 to 3020 may play out in the coming days.
For the day the range may be 2860/2885 to 2955/3000

There

Nifty breaks past the channel resistances after the weekly "BUY"..

Nifty breaks past the "2815" and also the earlier strong resistance zone of "2860" after showing a "Buy Signal" in the weekly.
Market Internals as posted in SS's blog-Relative Strength has alerted on the improving internals of the Nifty Fifty. And that is worth a million to keep an eye on..Thank You SS...
Market never broke the 2-day swing low nor closed below 5 day avg/ema since its low of 2539. The previous high of "2970" and another channel resistance at "3035" are the levels to look out for in the coming days.
Ride this trend till a negative divergence develops or a 2-day swing reversal.

Nifty's Alternative Ending Scenario.

In view of a strong world mkts, the alternative view of the "Nifty having ended its downtrend from 6247 to 2253(2539-truncated end)with its 5th as a triangle" looks a distinct possibility. Crossing "2970" is the next confirmation.

Weekly price has given a 2wk swing reversal. Only a move below 2772 will give a short term weakness and below 2660, more severe weakness.

Current uptrend will face resistance at 2860-2865 and clearing the same will give strong momentum(Probably after some consolidation..)

Follow up on world markets - Channels broken & Down..!

A comparative presentation of world markets suggests the severity of the bearishness in Europe & US and a sideways kind of moves in Asia & India in line with overall trend.
Assuming a bear low is in place at 2539, Market can get a little bit higher upto 2850-2865 area(Remember the highly talked about 2860 area)(If 2815 is not cleared, there is no 2860) and start a corrective move towards 2662-2700 area(Remember the highly talked about 2660 area).
So you have 2660 --2860 as decisive levels for Nifty in the coming days. Below 2660, it can slide towards 2550-2475.
"Channels Breaking" has always given good trading points..Let us also not forget some false breaks, so be prepared for the same as we head into "Settlement week". This settlement started with 2772 and the rolled over shorts are at nearly cost price and only the weak shorts created at the lower levels would have panicked & exited after the world rally. Break of 2772 will boost the confidence of the Strong bears to stay put and may even roll over again. At 2700 & 2665, those shorts may exit the March series and may get rolled over to April series.
However, individual stocks will behave differently in the coming days.. ONGC, RIL, GMR, SAIL & similar ones that have closed at the high points will continue to do well on every dips till settlement but Cement stocks, Bank stocks may see selling pressure.
I continue to maintain that "Investors" should pick their choice of stocks leisurely on every panic dips by having their calculations ready for individual stocks and do it in small parts and increase the buying once signs of bottom & another +ve divergence start visible to us.
"Traders" would find Shorting rewarding once 2772 is broken and halt a while around 2660 to see whether that level holds.