Showing posts with label sideways market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sideways market. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

In a trending market, especially for traders who look for immediate gratification, then prices move in the direction of the trend in a substantial manner satisfying the "trendy guy".
In a sideways/ corrective/ consolidating market, the price behaviour is unpredictable as it unfolds in small bouts of ups and downs, frustrating the trendy guy who fails to accept that the trend has paused or attempting a reversal. The TT shows the way; but ego fights it.
FII's are alternating buying with selling in small qty., typical of consolidation.
Prices, in the short term, have closed above two key ST averages.
"Consolidating 2nd wave" seems to be done at 7442, requiring "holding of key retrace points at 7500-18; The ST direction is "biased up" till prices continue to close above DEma & these two key averages (21 or 34 hr smas).
Aggressively Holding above 7553, Conservatively Holding above 7525, rally continues....
The strategy that has worked consistently well with low risk-high reward ratio is "Initiating a trade at 50%-61.8% retrace with 80% as SL". Adapt to it.
Note how prices are consolidating in a broader channel with many cluster points creating minor channels.

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices, on getting into a corrective, sideways mode with a close below DHEma few days ago, fell from above DHEma and moved to DLEma less 20 points and have started a return journey towards DHEma to DHEma+20 points.
Tech.Table is a simple tool to identify trending and sideways market of different t/f. Just like any other tool, it too has few whipsaws. But it has worked well enough to be embraced for our trading decisions. You need to know ST directions to trade the market and you need to know the critical support & resistance zones to initiate trades during a corrective phase.
45 to 75 points were the corrections of Hour T/F, we stated for this specific uptrend.
120 to 130 points were the corrections of Day T/F, we stated for this specific uptrend.
And Nifty has paused & took support around 6777-120/130=6657-6647 @6650.
This is called the quantitative tool/ analysis.
And weekly trend remains up as long as prices close above WHEma on the last day of a week.
Hence, 6654 is a critical number for this week to suggest larger weakness for a larger correction.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Nifty Pre-Market View.

During uptrend, the first sign of "loss of momentum" is noticed when prices close below DHEma. (It goes for all time frames too). And a "sell on Rises" strategy comes in here. Except during strongly trending period, it works well.
Prices then move below DEma and close below it, confirming a ST reversal.
Prices, then, move towards DLEma to DLEma less 20 points approx. Remember DLEma number decreases as new lows are being made.
Having reached the lower range, DLEma - 20, prices attempt a bounce/ reversal and move towards DEma and if ST technicals help it, it will move towards DHEma or DHEma +20.(In the meanwhile DHEma number would have come down significantly).
It is only when prices close below DLEma, downward momentum would affect the prices.
Similarly, it is only when prices close above DHEma, upward momentum would return.
These "emas" could be matched with Price clusters in Hour chart for probable Supports and Resistances and further fine tuned with developing "Pivot numbers" or "Camrilla Numbers".
Once you have a "Trading range" for the day is developed, it becomes easy to "Sell on Rises" OR "Buy on Dips". Within the "Sell on Rises", a "Buy on Dips" comes in when prices come to the lower range but fail to close below DLEma. This is the best way to deal with a "Sideways Market".
"JNSAR Traders" would do well to adopt this strategy to "minimise" whipsaws. Let there be few whipsaws; it will keep you grounded. But if your JNSAR number is stuck between DHEma & DLEma and prices are closing between DHEma & DLEma, "Trade the Ranges"..
I have seen it work for years. But you need to be "loose and flowing" with the markets. Develop that edge.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Nifty PreMarket View

How do you identify a sideways market for trading?
In uptrend, it is the close below DHEma that suggests of a correction and it normally extends upto 10-20 points below DLEma. Depending on the nature of correction, it could even close below DLEma one day and reverses.
In downtrend, it is the close above DLEma that suggests of a correction and it normally extends upto 10-20 points above DHEma. Depending on the nature of correction, it could even close above DHEma one day and reverses.
Divergences are excellent indication of stretched market/ exhausted market.
We have two scenarios at work:
Correction is over @ 50Sma and next phase of upmove starts OR
A bounce is on upto 5110-5130 zone & moves again down towards 5015-25.
Hour TA would reflect the changes.
Above 5130, the resumption of upmove increases.

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....