Nifty entering the Major resistance zone of 4650 - 4740. Big stocks finally made their moves breaking the 2 months consolidation..Now for the follow up action..
Nifty closed just at the major resistance line(Neckline of a huge H&S pattern). Broke past the "4600" mark on a new settlement day, pulled back below that and rallied back up to 4650.
Trend remains "UP", though OB in the short term with some -ve div..Watch the resistances ahead as well as the channel support @ 4575.
Only Notable feature is the closing below the "Hour high ema". Daily, weekly are firm. If closes below 4600 on Monday, that will put pressure on Nifty.
"6 Days" of upmove from 3980 - 4557 was corrected by a "8 Days" of upward correction. It is poised for further upmoves and the confirmation of the same will be a break of 4585-4600. Previous highest close of 4655 & the high of 4695 are the resistances. Trading above the Pivot @ 4503 after an initial fall and a resistances @ 4530-4535, Nifty climbed higher on the back of "Short coverings". Now the setup has become "All Bullish"..
Inspite of all the intra day wild swings, EOD chart presents a calm picture of a trending Nifty supported by the Macd. A close above 4655 will give a break out and a subsequent pull back may be possible after a rally.
Hourl technicals bottomed out and gave a buy around noon. It looks poised for further upmoves.
NOTE: I have added a "NIFTY RECOMMENDATION" table on the top right hand side of the blog. I will be updating it regularly. I have done this exercise few years ago and found it to be quite useful. This helps in keeping a "Nifty position" without the hassle of monitoring it regularly. You may have to key in the S&R figures everyday to lok in the profit & to initiate a fresh trade.
I have taken the trades w.e.from 15th July 2009. The conservative trader has made much more than the aggressive one, implying "Make money effortlessly".
I will continue to monitor the same to prove a point that this is not a flash in the pan.
"You are free to fine tune it to book out partially and reenter on corrections" - At times, after booking out, market may not give a chance to get back..
Being the settlement day, two way movements are possible. Resistances are just above 4500 and supports are @ 4450 and lower. If 4380-4420 holds, buying & short covering may emerge...
Breaking of 4530 led to the much required corrections. A 2-day low is broken. The 5-day low of 4421(today's) or the last swing low of 4380 are important support levels. Holding these levels, Nifty can rally higher and breaking of these may lead them towards 4250 initially.. Time taken in any move will alert us of future scenario.. Though the upward momentum lost being below High ema, the downward momentum was arrested by holding above Low emas. Daily TA is beginning to weaken. Now for a follow up..
Sharp fall followed by sharp recovery...and the Hourly macd continues to move down..Holding the previous swing low of "4380" is to be watched for..
Narrowing Nifty range will break out decisively soon(4530 - 4600). Settlement considerations also having its impact. Buy the lows with tight SL and also sell the highs..And hold the break out direction.
Nifty was stopped on its way up with a sudden delivery based selling in "Hindustan Unilever". More such "delivery Selling" can keep Nifty under pressure.. Trading below 4550 is the first sign of weakness for tomorrow with supports likely to be 4530-4495.
"4580-4600" continues to be resistance and supports are rising everyday which may make the "Break down" easier..Trade with proper Stop losses..Or step back and allow the index to decide on the "range break out"..(<4600-4528>)
If 4485(10DMA) -4505-4525 area holds, further upmoves possible. Sofar, every intra day dips have been used for short coverings..Looks like "shorts are not finished yet..!!"
At 10.10AM: Hourly chart looks this way.. <4595 - 4525/4505> is the range ******************************************************************** Though Nifty has been showing -ve div in hourly charts, brief intra dips are followed by upmoves resuming due to firm daily, weekly strength. The same has been witnessed in the world mkts too. As it is trending up within this channel, trade the channel bottoms & tops, if you can or hold till the channel is broken decisively. Trade the major trend by buying into the dips and booking out partially on rallies. "Shorts" are exiting on every dips closer to the settlement day keeping Nifty firm inspite of stretched technicals. If 4600-4610 is breached, sharp upmoves may be in place.
Another sideways movement..Nothing much to add At 12.00Noon, Hourly weakness set in. However, Nifty found supports between "Week High & Day High emas". Daily trend remains "UP", though upmove so far is quite sluggish. Hourly -ve div is noticed. To be confirmed by a fall below 4558. The negative div. that persisted till morning led to a fall upto 4528 and Nifty retraced 75% of the fall. Based on the world cues, it should correct further.
Sgx Nifty was used today to manipulate Nifty or the traders at Singapore were taken for a ride..!! Once again Nifty failed to sail through the 4560-4580 zone decisively and selling came at 4596 and a negative divergence is developing in the hourly charts. Caution is advised at higher levels. Now the "Fri-Mon" lows of 4505-4528 is crucial supports for upmove to continue.
At 10.35AM: If Nifty closes below 4580 at 11.00AM, more weakness will be possible in the short term. ***************************************************************************** At 11.50AM: Closing below 4585 at 12.00Noon will bring in short term weakness. ***************************************************************************** Larger trend namely Daily & Weekly likely to prevail over the OB hourly and will negate the -ve div of 5 minute time frame..
In 1870, a creative engineer named John Roebling was inspired by an idea to build a spectacular bridge connecting New York with the Long Island. However bridge building experts throughout the world thought that this was an impossible feat and told Roebling to forget the idea. It just could not be done. It was not practical. It had never been done before.
Roebling could not ignore the vision he had in his mind of this bridge. He thought about it all the time and he knew deep in his heart that it could be done. He just had to share the dream with someone else. After much discussion and persuasion he managed to convince his son Washington, an up and coming engineer, that the bridge in fact could be built.
Working together for the first time, the father and son developed concepts of how it could be accomplished and how the obstacles could be overcome. With great excitement and inspiration, and the headiness of a wild challenge before them, they hired their crew and began to build their dream bridge.
The project started well, but when it was only a few months underway a tragic accident on the site took the life of John Roebling. Washington was injured and left with a certain amount of brain damage, which resulted in him not being able to walk or talk or even move.
"We told them so."
"Crazy men and their crazy dreams."
"It`s foolish to chase wild visions."
Everyone had a negative comment to make and felt that the project should be scrapped since the Roeblings were the only ones who knew how the bridge could be built. In spite of his handicap Washington was never discouraged and still had a burning desire to complete the bridge and his mind was still as sharp as ever.
He tried to inspire and pass on his enthusiasm to some of his friends, but they were too daunted by the task. As he lay on his bed in his hospital room, with the sunlight streaming through the windows, a gentle breeze blew the flimsy white curtains apart and he was able to see the sky and the tops of the trees outside for just a moment.
It seemed that there was a message for him not to give up. Suddenly an idea hit him. All he could do was move one finger and he decided to make the best use of it. By moving this, he slowly developed a code of communication with his wife.
He touched his wife's arm with that finger, indicating to her that he wanted her to call the engineers again. Then he used the same method of tapping her arm to tell the engineers what to do. It seemed foolish but the project was under way again.
For 13 years Washington tapped out his instructions with his finger on his wife's arm, until the bridge was finally completed. Today the spectacular Brooklyn Bridge stands in all its glory as a tribute to the triumph of one man's indomitable spirit and his determination not to be defeated by circumstances. It is also a tribute to the engineers and their team work, and to their faith in a man who was considered mad by half the world. It stands too as a tangible monument to the love and devotion of his wife who for 13 long years patiently decoded the messages of her husband and told the engineers what to do.
In spite of Roebling�s inability to supervise the work, his wife did excellent effort, she was so involved in the project, that she was the first person to ride across the span during the opening ceremony while president Chester Arthur and New York Governor Grover Cleveland followed Mrs. Roebling. This was the greatest gratitude that the citizens could give to the Roebling family.
The names of John Roebling, Washington Roebling, and Emily Warren Roebling are inscribed on the structure as its builders.
Perhaps this is one of the best examples of a never-say-die attitude that overcomes a terrible physical handicap and achieves an impossible goal.
Often when we face obstacles in our day-to-day life, our hurdles seem very small in comparison to what many others have to face. The Brooklyn Bridge shows us that dreams that seem impossible can be realised with determination and persistence, no matter what the odds are.
Even the most distant dream can be realized with determination and persistence.
Weekly channel has been broken on the upside..4400 becomes a major support for weekly. Nifty, just about, managed to close above the "Hour High Ema", thus keeping the momentum "up" in all time frames. Supports are rising fast. So either Nifty has to move higher soon or break below these supports. As larger trend has turned firmly "UP", barring some minor dips, the upmove should continue..
Though moved past the "4560", Nifty did not push higher inspite of Big gains in US mkts.
Trending up firmly. If Nifty sustains 4514, on Monday and moves past 4580, it will move higher towards 4640-4695.
Price has been stalling @ 4560-4580 zone throughout last week. Upsides only on clearing this level decisively. A consolidation upto 4510-4480(Or Lower) may be possible.
10.05AM: It looks as though a consolidation is on. Trade accordingly as per the "Alternative view". ************************************************************************** As per our own technical indicators, weekly turned up last Friday and after an intra week's correction on Tuesday towards 5ema(4380), Nifty has bounced back to head towards previous top of 4693 and higher... As long as the larger trend is in "up" mode, hold long positions & create longs during corrections. Once some -ve divergences develop in daily alongside Hourly, partial profit booking may be done. Until then ride this wave. Alternate view:- Nifty can spend a day or two of consolidating at 4460-4580, before heading higher.
Today, Nifty gave a down to up trading as expected but with an extra push. Depending on external cues & results-events, the correction may continue for a day or two or move higher..Trading band is 4360-4380 to 4560-4570. Break out is above 4570. Nifty moved up sharply, corrected intra and headed higher..Now, the momentum is back and the supports are rising.
Direction is firmly up in daily EOD technicals.. A correction is on since yesterday's top @ 4558. In the "b" wave, that top can be violated & Nifty can correct lower too. At a cross road here..
Maket could spend a day or two consolidating here before moving higher.. Positional longs may continue to hold with a Sl @ 4350 to be raised to higher level once Nifty moves past 4560 decisively.
As there is a 5 wave down is completed(Provided 4385 is not breached @ the open), a counter "abc" up move is expected with resistances @ 4445, 4470-4480.A down to up trade here.There is also a possibility that Nifty can reverse sharply from either 4445 or 4470-4480 levels.Keep also this option that Nifty may hit 4470-4480(Instead of 4445) at the open and pause and head higher to 4510.
As daily trend is intact(Staying above 5 ema/avg), Nifty can continue to move past 4480 to 4510 also.So My S&R will be @ 4510.A down to up trade here..
In sum 4385 - 4510 is the deciding levels. In Between, Trading the lows and highs.. Main trend being "UP"(Daily, Weekly)
Big stocks finally made their moves breaking the 2 months consolidation..Now for the follow up action..
Broke past the "4600" mark on a new settlement day, pulled back below that and rallied back up to 4650.
Trend remains "UP", though OB in the short term with some -ve div..Watch the resistances ahead as well as the channel support @ 4575.
Only Notable feature is the closing below the "Hour high ema". Daily, weekly are firm. If closes below 4600 on Monday, that will put pressure on Nifty.
