Nifty Pre-Market View.

Nifty has paused around the 7900 for two days on the back of overbought hour technicals. That is resistances established in the short term.-Yesterday, it got resisted around 7911(7920).
Now, we need to look out for possible supports. Prices, though breached the 21 hr sma, managed to close above "it" on the back of "avergaing".
Another reliable support is around the 34 hr sma +/-5pts.(34hrsma at 2.00PM when Nifty made a low of 7856 was 7851 which is 7851+5)
Another way of looking for support is whether DHEma less 20 or 30 points hold(It held in the region of DHEma less 20 or 30 which was 7881-20-30=7861-7851) but this must get completed in the opening session and buying interest should return in the second half, failing which there will be a likely "Sell on rises" signal emerging.(The low was made at 1.02PM and buying interest did emerge in the second half)
On the other hand, if the 1st session makes highs near resistances or new high, there could be "roll over" pressure....(1st session moved into resistances and roll over pressure was seen bringing the price down by 60+ points)
Once you start to see 3,4, (3), (4)'s, it is trading time..(Trading time - resistances to supports and supports towards resistances)
And this is called "only Ullu banoing..ullu banaoing.." 
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I have labelled yesterday's low of 7856 as "iv" tentatively, it could be 4 too. It depends on prices holding 7882 or 7872.
EW helps us to trail a position;
EW tells us if more price advances are likely;
EW is synonymous with channels and the channels help us to capture bulk of the prices.
There are no perfections in the market; Use your imagination to fit in the imperfections of the market into such anticipated perfections.
Above all, flow...& let your mind be like a mirror to reflect the price behaviour in the most objective way.
(This hour expanding triangle/ broadening top reminds us of the one in the Day T/F)

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices, in the short term, have closed above all key averages.
"Flat Correction" seems to be completed; the direction is now "biased UP" in the ST till prices continue to close above these key averages(21 or 34 hr smas).
Also, prices have broken past the channel resistance around 7425.
Holding above 7408, uptrend continues....
The strategy that has worked consistently well with low risk-high reward ratio is "Initiating a trade at 50%-61.8% retrace with 80% as SL". Adapt to it. 
7377-84 & 7408-16 are two key supports today.
Flowing with the market: Since Nifty reached the channel top " 7433", correction/ reversal was expected as per the pattern/ EW forms and this led us to keep two options in mind and to be vigilant; accordingly, when prices fell from 7415 to 7361(DEma), we kept the retrace ready as well as looked for the "abc" sub-waves. "a" did a 21 points to 6382 and "b" fell to 6367.65 and we anticipated "c" to complete around 6389 and reverse but it did not show weakness; hence, we alerted "sustaining 6389 is strength" and Nifty moved near 100 points on conquering 21 hrsma, a critical average.
Describing a market "too high" is an opinion; and describing a strongly trending market as "overbought" using indicators that serves well in a sideways market is like "using a wrong tool".
Market does not care about our opinions; our tools; it has a mind of its own.
Only following and "following with an objective mind" would keep you in the right track.
"No truck", "No excitement" will sustain your success in this journey.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Remove the veil of ignorance....? Only you can do it.
Insanity...? doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.(when failure repeats).
A JNSAR trader/ EW trader/Technical trader would do the same thing over and over and find insane results....provided they maintain discipline & patience.
This patience is needed when prices exhibit high level of choppiness with in an acceptable range as per your study.
This discipline is needed when it breaches the range, to act.
Believe in something...and let go of your opinions and prejudices and learn to follow the things you believe in.
Life is flowing continually. No matter how many times you fall...fail, get up, dust yourself off, start again but stop the "insanity"..
Only you know the subtleties (sub-waves) of your actions. And if they are leading you in the wrong direction, you must sit back, take stock of your situation honestly and then go about changing those subtleties "consciously".
Markets are different all the time; hence, your methods/ systems should be able to accommodate the changes to stay relevant.
A trend trader must never ignore "part booking", "trailing" and "re-entering". Repeat these again and again but this insanity produces desirable results.
.............................................................................................................
Prices after a huge gap up showed the first weakness with a retrace of more than 1.3% and then below "6352", the first set of 5 sub-waves low.....
A distinctive 3 wave fall was completed at 7131, the confirmation for the same would come only if prices breach 7352. If prices make another low without breaching "7352", it would become a "5 wave fall" following which 80% would become relevant.
There are two scenarios labelled in the chart. Hence, 7102 and 6992 are critical supports to hold initially as per the first scenario..
Prices would reveal how they are going to discount the future..

Just put one foot in front of the other, and enjoy the walk.

"Try and if you don't succeed, try and try again". But then you've also heard the converse,
"Try, and try again, and if you fail, then stop. Don't be a damn fool about it!".
On the one hand you hear, "Go with the flow", and on the other hand,

"Only a dead fish goes with the flow."So, understandably, people are often confused, unsure when to persist and when you realign goals and strategies. The answer to your question is found in the famous "Serenity Prayer":

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Following the prices, it was identified that there will be a tussle for "5971" with 5925-65(5933) as the support area for ST and Nifty managed to close above 5971 on 4th, followed by a close above DLEma(6001) on 5th and set to move towards DEma(6045) & DHEma+20/WLEma(6069) as long as it holds above 21 Hr Sma or the 61.8% of its last rise.
If you can't follow market after choosing a particular method/ study with discipline, do not label it a myth as in sour grapes. The tendency of most has always been to find the "blame" outside when it actually resides in "self" just as "most people look for GOD outside when He resides in us".
Life is all about  getting newer knowledge and taking risks.
"There is the risk you cannot afford to take and there is the risk you cannot afford not to take"-Peter Drucker.
"It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare. It is because we don't dare that things are difficult" - Roman Philosopher Seneca.

Merry Christmas...

The most mundane actions can have a ripple effect - holding open the door for someone, smiling at the grocery clerk—change the course of the day by affecting how we feel.

That rush of good feeling that comes after a daily run, the inspiring conversation with a good friend, or the momentary flash of anger that arises when someone cuts in front of us in line—what could they have to do with big life matters? Everything, actually.

Nifty Pre-Market view.

No study needs our certification. They are just fine.
Learn to apply them objectively.
And you'll learn well once "bolti bandh hogaya toh".
If you are here for "making money", focus only on using the tools of studies whatever they may be. And share your such "application of studies & results" in a way it'll benefit others in grasping..like few readers here have been doing for quite sometime consistently. Do not disturb them, if you can not contribute anything sensibly.
If a tool is found to be not useful in realising profits, why do you get obsessed with it or its presence?
Find the one that suits your intelligence and temperament, follow it.
Some run a petty shop...and some a departmental store....some even graduate from a petty shop to a bigger one and some day the owner of a departmental store. All are well respected since all are working honestly, sincerely.
Never compare yourself with others. That is a sure recipe for unhappiness.
Find your nature, your capabilities....exploit it to the maximum. And while doing so, you'll start realising unimaginable potential hidden in you. Have patience and have a strong belief that "you can do it".
Do it your way. Even if you make 500 or 1000, let it be your learning and applying. You'll soon find the confidence in you growing and hold on to that confidence, the invaluable capital in this world. Once you have that, you can do anything, provided you maintain an equilibrium/ a balance in success & failures.
I wish you only the very best. Boldness has genius.
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Prices retreated on reaching "5918" yesterday sharply. Monitor the retrace of 5811-5918.
Since the rise was of 3 waves, it could retrace any %. We'll observe the usual 50%-61.8% wherein lies "DLEma". The ST direction is down till below 5910-20(approx).
Two possibilities labelled:
If "2" done, 3rd will open down but its severity may not be felt today.
If "a" done, "b" will frustrate the traders.
WHema & DLEma are likely to act as a trading range and break-out/ down.

If you keep surfing, you’ll eventually catch a wave...

In order to start making progress, we need to deconstruct what it means to learn. Throughout life you've probably believed that reading something and being able to explain what you read to another person is learning. That's more or less what traditional education has defined as learning, and when you're unable to do it you believe that you have failed.
That's not learning; that's memorization.
And it might get you through school, but it won't get you through life.

If I brought you to the beach with me, you could watch me surf for hours, listen to my explanation of how to get up on your surfboard, and how to catch a wave.

Discover where the secrets live...This took "Five years"..!!!

"Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do." - Bruce Lee.
I've always been enamored by successful people. What interests me most about these legendary people is the story of their success.
The story of how they did it, why they did it, and what it is in them that keeps them doing it. Along the way, I've certainly come across a few instant success stories. Folks that were in the right place at the right time with the right thing in a BIG way. But it's hardly something you can plan for.

More often, these success legends had something else in common. They discovered where the secrets live. And they used those secrets to achieve great things.

Nifty goes sideways in the range that has not been traded for years.

Whenever I saw a footballer playing in the field or a basket ball player in the court or badminton player playing, the temptation to play like them is tremendous.
I would jump in and start to play with them and founnd myself lacking in co-ordination, stamina, technique,  strategies and above all few tricks of the game that only comes from being exposed to the game regularly, sincerely and with full dedication.
Not giving up, I would spend hours, days, months & years to master the games. As I started to play each & every game, I would start to develop strong liking to basket ball, Table tennis, Pole vault and concentrated on them and excelled, though I play other games & sports whenever time will permit me.
When you come into trading arena, it is mesmerizing to watch the professionals executing trades effortlessly and understanding the market turns fairly well and getting a lot of admiration, adulation along the way.
You, in your enthusiasm and in earnest desire to duplicate their success, jump in to the world of "trading" just as I did..jumping into the playing field inexperienced. I would have faced few ridicule or pushed aside abruptly. But you'll lose your hard earned money which could otherwise brought joy & growth to so many deserving people around you.
Spend hours, days, months & years to master this game of trading. Study. There are so many study materials available in this blog. Explore them. Apply them as in a test laboratory without employing your money. It requires tremendous amount of patience to hold back yourself from jumping into this mesmerizing world of trading where only "success stories" are talked about.
Gaining knowledge brings you only half way or I would say to the starting block. To select & execute your trades, use your head. Once executed, keep the "brains" out and follow your trading plan. Do it with small amount and grow in confidence.
Why study so much when there are mechanical trading is available? If you have an in-built discipline as that of a Military man, you will follow those simple rules. If not, you need to study to understand the markets and find , during the course of your experience, that mechanical trading with a bit of input from our Tech.table is all that is required to win in this market consistently.
For those intelligent people who can excel in technical studies,  to win consistently, make "part-booking" a part of your strategy and hold the remaining till a valid target is met or a trailing number is stopped out.
Having spent many years in the market, I do not know where the market is headed for "sure" but that does not stop me from "Applying my knowledge to a credible, objective plan". You'll find some of those strategies in the labels section. I used to be excited about "where the market will go" & share it with one & all but years of hits & hits sobered me to be an objective individual.
There is money in the market to be mined regularly if you apply yourself, keep the patience at all times which takes care of greed & fear emotions as well as finding those high probability trade set ups and "act when you must".
Get rich slowly & quietly.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Till the downtrend gets exhausted, no number will qualify for key support.
No anlysis is good that does not take into account the "Trend".
There are no supports during downtrend till the trend is spent and
there are no resistances during uptrend till that trend is spent.
There is only one quality a trader must possess in order to make it big..."Being still".
It requires tremendous amount of courage to be still while the trend is on. "Be Still".
The best way to have traded yesterday's market was "Sell on rises" and market gave the perfect entry @ the open at pre-mkt's resistence of 5711-18. Next clear weakness was its inability to hold above 21 Hr sma.
The final confirmation was the break of 80%.
For the day, Only a close above 5677 or 5686 would make the day trend "UP".

Nifty Pre-Market View.

prakashbkc said...
Everyone is making money,
I m not able make single penny
but loosing much
What a luck????????
Hi..Prakash,
If success eludes you, look within to know its reasons.
The primary one being concentration.
Are you hearing too many voices...telling you contradicting views.
There are opinions abound in the market place and they are too many.
To make money in the market, you just need to be steadfast with "one voice"..."one study"(initially)
You will not go wrong.
To have that concentration, you need to believe in your studies...develop a faith.
And never let go off the "total picture".
Part booking is the simple strategy in the midst of "uncertain market" which it is often times.
You do not need luck...you need self confidence born out of faith & focus.
Making money is the easiest thing, if you remove the "I"...., surrender...and start following.

Calmness descends on acceptance.

A King wished to select a good Chief Minister for his Kingdom. In his court were four men with equal qualification to hold the post of the Chief Minister. He therefore decided to conduct a test to select one from amongst them for the post.

One day, he called all four of them and said, 'I have a lock. It is a scientific lock, made according to mathematical calculations. Tomorrow morning all of you would be given a chance to open this lock. The person who succeeds in opening this lock within the shortest time would become the Chief Minister of this Kingdom.

With a desire to become the Chief Minister, the men sat up the whole night, browsing ancient writings regarding locks, mathematical designing etc., and made notes. Only one amongst them looked at a few palm leaves and then went to bed.

Nifty breaks out of yet another consolidation.

Any kind of study, if applied appropriately & discretely, will produce excellent results.
We have in the recent past spotted a "Falling wedge" to identify a ST bottom along with TT's MLEma & EW.
We identified an "Ascending triangle" for a likely target of 5336 sometime ago.
We identified a "Rising wedge" two weeks ago and this morning, using SAN's chart, relabelled to identify the "Day's upmove targeting towards 5375 ."
Identifying a "Developing pattern" requires not just patience but "balance of views" derived from various studies which would give credence to such a formation.
Patterns do fail at times. Make your journey with them as long as they hold their promises.

EW continues to guide me like it did today...like it did on innumerable occasions.
How could one abandon it?
If you err in your EW study, don't blame the study. Find the truth...that how you missed reading it in the first place. And if you find reading it tough, why not shift to something that is comfortable to you.
I must recollect here and emphasize that "Trading is quite personal". Master your trade whether you use
"SAR", "EW", TA" & so on.
I have seen the "Overflowing doubts" on following the simple "SAR method" here..!!! So why blame anyone for EW?
Take the wheel and mind the road...for a safe journey.

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Self-Reliance by Ralph Waldo Emerson:
To believe your own thought, to believe that what is true for you in your private heart is true for all men, —that is genius. Speak your latent conviction, and it shall be the universal sense; for the inmost in due time becomes the outmost,— and our first thought is rendered back to us by the trumpets of the Last Judgment. 

A man should learn to detect and watch that gleam of light which flashes across his mind from within, more than the lustre of the firmament of bards and sages. Yet he dismisses without notice his thought, because it is his. In every work of genius we recognize our own rejected thoughts: they come back to us with a certain alienated majesty.
Great works of art have no more affecting lesson for us than this. They teach us to abide by our spontaneous impression with good-humored inflexibility then most when the whole cry of voices is on the other side. Else, to-morrow a stranger will say with masterly good sense precisely what we have thought and felt all the time, and we shall be forced to take with shame our own opinion from another.
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The above thoughts of one of the greatest thinkers, Ralph Waldo Emerson, has strong message for the traders/ investors which is "You have it in you. Start believing in your own thoughts, ideas and act. Or else, someone will shame you by giving you the very same ideas of yours."

For Bulls, any corrections should limit itself to golden ratio of "5089" and the 80% @ 5062. For Bears, any rise should limit itself below golden ratio/ recent high of "5133-5141" and the 80% @ 5160.

I still find readers quite fond of expressing their opinions. They are yet to master the art of finding a range to make their trades OR simply follow the "method/ system" except for those "keen & focused readers". Watch your words...it reveals to you whether you're on "hope drips" or in "faith mode" or "simply lost".

If you are determined to make money in the markets,
If you develop the calm temperament to deal with the prices,
If you come prepared with a complete plan for both ups & downs,
If you have faith in your study and obedience to follow it,
The Riches will, sure, come to you, provided you embrace "Silence".

Rule #1 Always Protect Your Capital

While watching Million Dollar Baby, I can't help but notice how many times her trainer says "protect yourself".
Every trader should remember these words of wisdom before deciding to take a trade...
"Always protect your capital". We have always stressed to keep a stop loss of just 20 points unless a very valid reason exists.
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Weekly TA has turned up. For BN, it has turned up with "Momentum".
If 61.8% or 80% of the current rise from 4995 lows(Fri) holds, we would assume that the "3rd" wave is in progress.(1st wave being 4770 to 5060=290 points; giving the 3rd a min. target of 5285 as equality).
Alternatively, if Nifty finds resistance @ 5125 zone and retraces, it would be treated as 2nd wave in progress and 3rd wave waits.
One who surrenders to the price, wins...has strength of character.
Best to you "Gkm223".

Nifty enters the decisive Friday with a positive bias.

Option trader asked:Nifty Spot closed below WHEMA Is this sell signal?
Ans: That was a signal generated long ago and action too followed it. Always look toward the newer signal and give weightage as per the Time Frame(T/F) they occur. What are the new signals generated today? Look out for price action accordingly. Anything on the contrary should alert you. Until then, follow the signals.
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Let us not concentrate on Nifty touching 7000 in a year or Not crossing 5400 this month. These are statements written on sand blown away by market forces or written on water, washed away by the undercurrents.
What use are these statements to anyone..? Have you been able to trade on these utterances consistently?. If yes, ignore me and go ahead. If someone can predict market outcomes consistently, he has the "Holy grail book in his hand"...Kidnap that fellow and keep him in your basement. All these "Nostradamus" will disappear to their basements whenever things go wrong only to reappear with another prediction. Shun them. They are just distractions. However entertaining they may be, they aren't additions to your riches but a small seed of doubt planted in your mind upsetting your rhythm.
Identify those readers who empower you. Follow them however boring it may be in the initial stages. They'll make you so independent that you'll retire to your own dealing room.
I repeat: If you are not here..in the NOW but with your opinions, you'll miss the current signals revealed by the market to you. Power of Now keeps you with the divine. If you're lost in the past or future, how would you connect with the divine forces. Universal forces can connect with you only in the NOW. As long as you are here and the NOW, all your actions will bear results of higher nature. So learn quickly to get into the NOW mode.

Nifty breaks out to 5340(50sma), pulls back, ending with Hour TA down.

To dear Crorepathi & other readers:

Don't settle for 100 points per month....Why?..When you can get more..!!!..Play the market for its merit alone and leave the "Just Market" to reward you in the most abundant way.

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I bargained with Life for a penny
And Life would pay no more,
However I begged at evening
When I counted my scanty store;

For Life is a just employer,
He gives you what you ask,
But once you have set the wages,
Why, you must bear the task.

I worked for a menial’s hire,
Only to learn, dismayed,
That any wage I had asked of Life,
Life would have gladly paid. - - - - - - Jessie Belle Rittenhouse (1869–1948)

Nifty PreMarket View

"...As a new comer to this field one thing that intrigues me is Can one depend on Technical analysis signals for trading and expect to generate regular income? If TA helps you generate accurate signals with an annual return of 40%-50% then all the traders must be millionairess and no one would lose money, but that doesnt seems to be the case.

So what are the limitations of this field and how can one expect to EARN A LIVING BY TRADING....

-- Gaurav Jain
Answer:-
I asked something similar to an All time Great Larry Williams. He has generated documented 100000% Annual Returns when he won the Robbins Cup Trading Championship. He was teaching the EXACT Trading techniques and Technical Analysis principles that he used in achieving these results. I asked him during this training If you are going to give away your secrets everybody in the world will use them and then given trading is a competitive business if all will do the same, no one will get anything. So why are you giving it?

He said, " YOU ARE WRONG"! He further said, "EVERYONE WILL DO IT IS A CHIMERA!" He then asked me, "Sushil, you have that packet of cigarette in your pocket. Take it out." I did. He then said, "What is written on that packet, that Smoking is Injurious to Health. Isnt that knowledge given to everyone? still how many out of the smokers ever quit smoking due to this knowledge and how many people stopped short of smoking their first cigarette because they got this knowledge on the cigarette packet before their first puff in life!"

So, Gaurav, knowledge is there in this universe and available to everyone. How many are able to APPLY it?. Discipline, emotional management, sticking to what you know are a 100 different names to the same idea.

let me put another perspective of my own to this. Market is the same for everyone. It provides the same prices to everyone. yet the performance of each is so unique...! Why? Did you ever think that no one ever made any money or lost any money off the market. Each is making or losing money off their own perceptions and actions and market is merely the Action-ground of our individual KarmaKshetra!

The combination of an individual and the market is unique. Each person is engaging with the market with their own unique self.

So Technical Analysis is an approach to studying markets and without spending adequate effort on understanding yourself, you are missing out everything.

Why just Technical Analysis, every other approach to markets and for that matter every other body of knowledge in any sphere of human enterprise is worthless without having a good understanding of who you are, what you are looking for, where you are, why you are doing what you are doing, how you should be doing it, how much you should be doing. Goals are a reflection of understanding your own self and more than deciphering the market its always profitable to decipher yourself, at least as much.

Every one is taught the same things at an MBBS Programme. Some become world famous doctors and some end up living a life where it is often that "operation successsful, but patient is dead" and most live a happy humdrum secure life of a good regular income. So MBBS is not the differentiator. It is YOU, my dear friend, YOU!

That is why I consider the Bhagwad Gita is the most important body of knowledge for me. For others there could be any other anchors that help them decipher themselves better.

Go, study yourself. You can then become anything!"
-- Sushil Kedia

Courtesy: FIRE.

So next time you take a trade based on other's observations, understand the trade perception fully yourself and take control of your actions. Often I have noticed that when JNSAR triggers a buy, a perception is created in readers' mind that Market has turned up and it will stay that way and thus they fail to accept any reversals resulting in a "freeze". This is where the above "YOU" comes into play. In the end, what you do with the market makes you money and not what you think.

Nifty reverses after reaching Month's R.2 @ 5630 with day -ve div.

This MahaShivratri, we listened to "Jaggi Vasudev's" discourse and he said..
Become shameless to know your true potential. He meant "shed all your inhibitions". You won't find your answers in the I-phone but in the "I" packed with God's software.
Shameless here would mean that you are being yourself and not pretending, you are not ashamed to act the way you want to. Shameless would also mean that you do not react to people's opinions.
When I read some of my readers' mail, I feel sad for all their struggles in this financial jungle. But it is their struggle and they'll come out of this with more objective application. It is their Karma and my Karma is to teach...only that. You'll find it Kid's stuff.
I just shed a bit of my inhibitions to demonstrate how various studies such as EW, OI analysis, Pivot table, ORB, divergences could be applied in real time to make money.
Everyone knows how the accelerator works but only the experienced knows how much to press..when to leave it besides manuevouring with steering wheel.
We did anticipate the end of the 3rd wave and whenever it showed continued strength, we accordingly shifted the labels and we even pinned the "Breakout @ 5415" when Nifty stayed sideways for few days.
This correction has equalled the last fall from 5217 to 5077(140 points).
We do not need to know how far the rise or fall will go but we definitely need to know the direction as well as whether we should be in a trade. Part booking as well as trailing SL would take care of the steady money flow.
Whenever subjective opinions take over your intellect, check the TT and take your trades based on its strength/ weakness.
It pays to remember always that markets are irrational and having accepted that fact, we could study the prices..its patterns to find a method to make some confident trades.
Day chart shows "3/C" being completed and "4/B" wave unfolding..