Showing posts with label quantitative analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label quantitative analysis. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices, on getting into a corrective, sideways mode with a close below DHEma few days ago, fell from above DHEma and moved to DLEma less 20 points and have started a return journey towards DHEma to DHEma+20 points.
Tech.Table is a simple tool to identify trending and sideways market of different t/f. Just like any other tool, it too has few whipsaws. But it has worked well enough to be embraced for our trading decisions. You need to know ST directions to trade the market and you need to know the critical support & resistance zones to initiate trades during a corrective phase.
45 to 75 points were the corrections of Hour T/F, we stated for this specific uptrend.
120 to 130 points were the corrections of Day T/F, we stated for this specific uptrend.
And Nifty has paused & took support around 6777-120/130=6657-6647 @6650.
This is called the quantitative tool/ analysis.
And weekly trend remains up as long as prices close above WHEma on the last day of a week.
Hence, 6654 is a critical number for this week to suggest larger weakness for a larger correction.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Corrections have been of 41 to 75 points approx, min & max.
Accordingly, if moved below 6522(6563-41) and moved towards around "6488"(6563-75).
If moves below 6474-88, last ST support is " 6457-62, 34 Hr sma,5 dema.
Corrections , during uptrend, are opportunities to initiate trades.
Corrections happen when prices have deviated from the averages(mean) by a "mile"... while prices come down to meet the averages, the averages too rise upto meet them. And then, uptrend resumes..
Notice how the intraday corrections have brought up the key 21 & 34 Hour averages from 6345 & 6400 to 6457 & 6520, a jump of 112-120 points.
Remember, uptrend is intact till prices keep closing above 34 Hr sma.(aggressively, 21 hr)
EW: From 5119 to 6343, prices sub-divided into 5 sub-waves(refer EOD charts)-1st wave.
From 6343 to 5933, prices sub-divided into 3 sub-waves(Irregular flat-bullish)-2nd wave took 65 trading days(approx). 
From 5933, the 3rd wave has commenced which will sub-divide into 5 sub-waves.
The "1"st of the 3rd wave is unfolding from 5933 and its sub-waves are being labeled in hour chart; (Labeling a sub-wave of a sub-wave is a challenging one-hence, when you see multiple scenarios in ST T/f, take a step back now & then and allow itself to reveal.)
And whenever, this 1st wave gets completed, the "2"nd wave would take time "closer to election completion", roughly 40 trading days.
During this period, "retracing the last rise" levels should guide you and also keep this "Big.3"rd wave scenario in contention. I will update the hour labels to understand the completion of 1st wave from 5933.
If irregular correction continues, it could end in the region of 6474-88 or 6457-62.
Above 6537-49, vth wave chances increases. Once 5th wave is done, a correction of larger magnitude would unfold.
Presently, monitor the last rise retrace from 6288.
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Friday, May 18, 2012

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Waquar asked: Can you please post a write-up as how we could have traded today(17th May, Thursday):


How: As per Pre-market view, it was a buy above previous day's high @ 4882 and it moved into the resistance zone of 4910-30. Since the fall from 5125, the bounces have been in the range of 69 to 86. Hence, a potential resistances would be 4906-4923. This is  "the best" quantitative analysis for selling into rises in downtrend and buying into declines in uptrend. And there were many resistances ahead @ 4925(Dema) 4930(80% of last fall). Being below most emas, & having moved up nearly 90 points from the lows of 4837, it, first, fell to 4910.40 and bounced off to 4919.30 @ 11.10AM. And when it broke 4910 again, it was a good sell for retracements towards 4859-Day pivot & 4854(80% of 4837 to 4922).

This break of 4854(80% mark) again warns you of more downsides...more new lows.
Based on previous day's price action, you could plan the 1st session's trade and the rest of the day is mostly guess work. Hence, make the initial trades based on sound study.

Now for today: With weak global cues, we wonder whether a selling points are possible at the open. Break of 4855, is a sell for a min. targets of 4800-10 and more(4750-70). Today could be the "deep cut"..There is a trending move within a channel as shown in the chart below. Longs, for intraday only, possible whenever Nifty reaches the bottom & shows signs of reversal with a move past previous hour's high. More strength would be possible only when it breaches the middle(red) line to target the upper line.
"Shriram" sensed & voiced of the flat correction towards close after the fall from 4922 to 4851 yesterday which is "i" & "ii" done and "iiird" to start today....a "iv"th would be a selling ops. And what "Shriram" says about EW....still not believing...You'll believe as long as you discriminate only the "obvious ones". Not all life's mysteries are known to us. We, mortals, should be happy knowing this much... JaiShriRam..!!

Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)

IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....