Friday, October 31, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Nifty to seek support levels after meeting a resistance..
Nifty has entered short term resistance zone with overbought indicators..If world markets are buoyant by Friday, it can go higher to the next resistance zone of 2850 - 2900 and corrects..or falls.. See the tech table for appropriate levels..
EW: if crosses 2917, downtrend over or one more fall likely.
TA:Still not closed above the 5 DEMA & the short term is getting overbought.
Conclusion: 500 points Bull Move will be put to test in the coming days...
EW: if crosses 2917, downtrend over or one more fall likely.
TA:Still not closed above the 5 DEMA & the short term is getting overbought.
Conclusion: 500 points Bull Move will be put to test in the coming days...
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Nifty nearing resistances on the last day of settlement, world mkts sentiment to help..!
The rally from Monday will test its first resistance at 2760 if world markets are positive. For upward momentum , it needs to stay above 2860. Supports at 2620 & 2580 and any fall below these levels may lead to more weakness.
As long as 2580 holds, buy on dips and book profits near the resistance levels.
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With world markets up handsomely, We should get our buy signals in the daily too. Let us remember here that our markets started this rally on Monday and the reversal has spread all over. Any consolidation move may develop from our market. A move past 2917 is required to assume that "abc" down is over.
October 28, 2008 - 02:24 PM
Lest I interrupt the moo love-fest (and, moo, you definitely were a factor in my decision to "go bull"), I wanted to reissue the very risky statement I made during the weekend posts, which was just two trading days ago......
Well, it's been a while since I've really, really gone out on a limb. So at the risk of looking like a complete fool this week (or a brilliant clairvoyant - - you payin' attention, Gawd?) here's what this poor soul is thinking:
* Those waiting for the fabled "capitulation volume" are wasting their time; it's not going to come until deep into 2009.
* The symmetric triangle, which I haven't shut up about for a long time, is going to be a fizzle. I don't think we're going to see a 2,000 point plunge; or a 1,000 point plunge; or really any kind of a plunge in the near future.
* On the contrary, I think we're going to start an explosive rally, and it's going to start this week. It might even start as soon as tomorrow (that is, Monday).
Markets do the unexpected. It seems everyone has joined the Slope party and wants to talk about how bad things are and how low things are going to go. Plus everyone is expecting the aforementioned triangle to usher in an inevitable plunge and buying opportunity.
I've looked at chart after chart after chart, and what my (relatively objective) eyes tell me is that everything is about to go up. Gold. Silver. Oil. Wheat. Kitty Litter. Equities. Everything.
Excerpts from "Slope of Hope with Tim Knight."
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As long as 2580 holds, buy on dips and book profits near the resistance levels.
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With world markets up handsomely, We should get our buy signals in the daily too. Let us remember here that our markets started this rally on Monday and the reversal has spread all over. Any consolidation move may develop from our market. A move past 2917 is required to assume that "abc" down is over.
October 28, 2008 - 02:24 PM
Lest I interrupt the moo love-fest (and, moo, you definitely were a factor in my decision to "go bull"), I wanted to reissue the very risky statement I made during the weekend posts, which was just two trading days ago......
Well, it's been a while since I've really, really gone out on a limb. So at the risk of looking like a complete fool this week (or a brilliant clairvoyant - - you payin' attention, Gawd?) here's what this poor soul is thinking:
* Those waiting for the fabled "capitulation volume" are wasting their time; it's not going to come until deep into 2009.
* The symmetric triangle, which I haven't shut up about for a long time, is going to be a fizzle. I don't think we're going to see a 2,000 point plunge; or a 1,000 point plunge; or really any kind of a plunge in the near future.
* On the contrary, I think we're going to start an explosive rally, and it's going to start this week. It might even start as soon as tomorrow (that is, Monday).
Markets do the unexpected. It seems everyone has joined the Slope party and wants to talk about how bad things are and how low things are going to go. Plus everyone is expecting the aforementioned triangle to usher in an inevitable plunge and buying opportunity.
I've looked at chart after chart after chart, and what my (relatively objective) eyes tell me is that everything is about to go up. Gold. Silver. Oil. Wheat. Kitty Litter. Equities. Everything.
Excerpts from "Slope of Hope with Tim Knight."
****************************************************************************
Nifty to rally from world market sentiment..
With Hangseng up 14% & London opening with a gap up, world markets are upbeat looking forward to rate cuts from Central Bankers.
The Bounce that started from Monday afternoon from Nifty at 2250 is likely to continue into Mahurat & wednesday's trading..So hold on to the bargains picked up in the last two days & book partial profit in the next two days.
The Bounce that started from Monday afternoon from Nifty at 2250 is likely to continue into Mahurat & wednesday's trading..So hold on to the bargains picked up in the last two days & book partial profit in the next two days.
Nifty bounces after positive divergences..still hurdles to cross & falls to tackle..
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HAPPY & PROSPEROUS DEEPAWALI.
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The EW counts are different in various charts as the interpretations are many & possible but the directions are the same.
Though the hourly has given a buy, daily buy signal is still far away.With holidays ahead, traders must keep safety of capital in their mind. However, investors can continue to pick stocks on every dips and book after 10 - 20% rallies as we are not going to have any runaway sustained bull move. Individual scrips, which are beaten down because of Oct. settlement concerns will offer quick returns.
HAPPY & PROSPEROUS DEEPAWALI.
*************************************************************************
The EW counts are different in various charts as the interpretations are many & possible but the directions are the same.
Though the hourly has given a buy, daily buy signal is still far away.With holidays ahead, traders must keep safety of capital in their mind. However, investors can continue to pick stocks on every dips and book after 10 - 20% rallies as we are not going to have any runaway sustained bull move. Individual scrips, which are beaten down because of Oct. settlement concerns will offer quick returns.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Nifty for settlement.
There are some interesting historical incidences of extreme volatility & what happened subsequently.
There is a consensus on nearing a bottom around 2370 to 2450 levels by Monday or by settlement day. The EW internals also suggest a similar scenario. Resistances at 2650 to 2750 and a likely support between 2370 to 2450. So the strategy for traders should be to sell near the resistances when the shortterm is overbought and buy near the supports when the short term is oversold.
But for investors...Keep buying into every falls some great scrips in sectors such as infrastructure, power..(My knowledge in individual scrips is limited).
As per our "5-Minute chart" posted above, Nifty is expected to complete a 4th and then a 5th down(If it has a "abc" structure, then the fall may end at the completion of 3rd itself), mostly by Monday and position itself for a sharp bounce by Tue/ wed. Monday's Asian market moves will provide further clues.
The "Point & Figure Chart" has a target of 2450.
There is a consensus on nearing a bottom around 2370 to 2450 levels by Monday or by settlement day. The EW internals also suggest a similar scenario. Resistances at 2650 to 2750 and a likely support between 2370 to 2450. So the strategy for traders should be to sell near the resistances when the shortterm is overbought and buy near the supports when the short term is oversold.
But for investors...Keep buying into every falls some great scrips in sectors such as infrastructure, power..(My knowledge in individual scrips is limited).
As per our "5-Minute chart" posted above, Nifty is expected to complete a 4th and then a 5th down(If it has a "abc" structure, then the fall may end at the completion of 3rd itself), mostly by Monday and position itself for a sharp bounce by Tue/ wed. Monday's Asian market moves will provide further clues.
The "Point & Figure Chart" has a target of 2450.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Nifty's slide continues as settlement closes in..
Option-A:- Nifty in the terminal stage of an ending diagonal, provided it does not fall much beyond 2850..another bounce to 3120-3150 & a fall to 2850-2875 & then a good rally is possible as per this scenario.
Option-B:- Nifty is doing a running 4th wave correction and likely to start a most severe fall reaching 2600 ( or below).Most bearish.
Option-B:- Nifty is doing a running 4th wave correction and likely to start a most severe fall reaching 2600 ( or below).Most bearish.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Nifty in a triangle, failed to rally further.
NIFTY in a trading range with prices contracting narrower..Trade as per the ranges & subsequently in the breakout direction.
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Looking at the US market's decline & the Sgx Nifty, We are sure to break this trading bottom at 4050 and fall massively. After a pause near 2850 - 2900 levels, it may ultimately seek the 2600 levels in the next 3 days.
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Looking at the US market's decline & the Sgx Nifty, We are sure to break this trading bottom at 4050 and fall massively. After a pause near 2850 - 2900 levels, it may ultimately seek the 2600 levels in the next 3 days.
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