Monday, February 28, 2011
Nifty Intraday Update-I
Thank you for your kind wishes.
My prayers and wishes for those children who appear for their exams.
My prayers and wishes for those children who appear for their exams.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Why 5413/5417 would be crucial for Nifty on the last day of the month..?
Month Low ema is placed @ 5417 and hence a close below it would maintain the downward momentum and its resumption. The chart below shows the likely choppiness that has been developed by the market for the budget day.
I'll be spending some time with my son in his preparations for his "10th ICSE" exams starting from 28th Feb. There could be some delay in updates. Readers who are diligently updating the tech.table, monitoring divergences may update the blog "incase I am not able to do the same on time".
The first fall from 5599 stopped @ 5413 and hence the breach of the same will confirm a reversal possibility.
VIX has been bearish and the price chart shows major support of 5350-5400 having broken firmly recently and attempt to stay above it has been failing so far and one more attempt will be on towards 5350-5400 on the budget day.
An ideal scenario for the coming week would be a choppy move upto 5375 to 5405 and then a drop to 5195 or 5097(73.6%/ 80.0% retrace) which would generate a +ve div.
The chart below shows the "Sharp fall scenario" as well as the importance of 5200 for bulls and 5400/5600 for bears.
Revisiting the monthly chart posted few weeks ago hasn't changed our views and the current downward direction being intact with three reversal points:
"ii" @ 5096-5197 zone.
VIX has been bearish and the price chart shows major support of 5350-5400 having broken firmly recently and attempt to stay above it has been failing so far and one more attempt will be on towards 5350-5400 on the budget day.
An ideal scenario for the coming week would be a choppy move upto 5375 to 5405 and then a drop to 5195 or 5097(73.6%/ 80.0% retrace) which would generate a +ve div.
The chart below shows the "Sharp fall scenario" as well as the importance of 5200 for bulls and 5400/5600 for bears.
Revisiting the monthly chart posted few weeks ago hasn't changed our views and the current downward direction being intact with three reversal points:"ii" @ 5096-5197 zone.
"2" @ 4750 zone (Will fine tune as time goes by)
"C" @ 4000 zone (Will fine tune as time goes by).
I'll be spending some time with my son in his preparations for his "10th ICSE" exams starting from 28th Feb. There could be some delay in updates. Readers who are diligently updating the tech.table, monitoring divergences may update the blog "incase I am not able to do the same on time".@ U.K.Raj,
Birbal would make a good trader according to you as he has understood the "Art of sitting tight"..!
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Great is the art and devotion, and not the individual.
King Akbar is well known for his love of arts and religion. One of the arts he loved was the art of music, and just like Birbal who was considered as one of the nine jewels of King Akbar's court, Tansen was one of the jewels greatly known and respected for his high level of singing capabilities. It is said and believed that there was none better than Tansen and none could compete him in the art of singing.
Once King Akbar, after listening to Tansen's music and singing, was much pleased with the great art as always, praises Tansen's art of singing and praises Tansen with respect.
He says to Tansen, 'You the best artist in the world, you are great, incomparable.'
Tansen with the gratitude replies, ' This is your opinion, there are artist in the world, who are better than I am.'
King Akbar denies his answer, he says, ' You are getting ashamed Tansen, You are best among all.'
Once King Akbar, after listening to Tansen's music and singing, was much pleased with the great art as always, praises Tansen's art of singing and praises Tansen with respect.
He says to Tansen, 'You the best artist in the world, you are great, incomparable.'
Tansen with the gratitude replies, ' This is your opinion, there are artist in the world, who are better than I am.'King Akbar denies his answer, he says, ' You are getting ashamed Tansen, You are best among all.'
Friday, February 25, 2011
Nifty closes the week weak.
A good combination of EW study and a classic TA analysis with "divergences" shows you some good trade set ups. We've seen a smaller "(iv)"th wave today and a foundation for a larger "iv"th has been laid with a new low today and "The budget day" has reserved for itself a real "roller coaster ride" with a range expansion..Make the best use of it.
Nifty Intraday Update-II
This chart is uploaded @ 1.36PM to show the bearish flag. Bounces upto 5320 may be used to sell with a SL 5335.
Nifty PreMarket View.
Trading above the pivot,5310, Nifty may attempt the two crucial Emas for the day...WLEma @ 5347 and DLEma @ 5363. Failure to reach even these would reveal the bearishness. Breaching "5413" would negate the impulsing down move and will keep the index in the corrective upmove(as in a 4th or "b" wave as suggested by Piyush Sharda yesterday).
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Nifty PreMarket View.
50% retracement of the last rise comes @ 5388(S2 for the day) and if that level holds, then a rally could unfold failing which, the next target would be the golden ratio which has been done quite often lately is 5338.
Watch BN, Bank Nifty...if it holds 10480 and rallies, it could lead as BN has been the strength as well as weakness to the market.
VIX too has been hovering above 26 suggesting bearishness along with uptrending crude.
Prices trading below all High Emas and having closed below all "Close emas" in itself bearish. A close below the "Low ema" would bring in the momentum and that is what happened yesterday when Nifty closed below Hour Low ema @ 3.00PM. It continues to be "sell on rises" which is threatening to "Hold shorts" if the close is below 5400.
SOLD 5466NF(March Series), hence the premium.
Watch BN, Bank Nifty...if it holds 10480 and rallies, it could lead as BN has been the strength as well as weakness to the market.
VIX too has been hovering above 26 suggesting bearishness along with uptrending crude.
Prices trading below all High Emas and having closed below all "Close emas" in itself bearish. A close below the "Low ema" would bring in the momentum and that is what happened yesterday when Nifty closed below Hour Low ema @ 3.00PM. It continues to be "sell on rises" which is threatening to "Hold shorts" if the close is below 5400.
SOLD 5466NF(March Series), hence the premium.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
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Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
