Nifty makes Ralph.N.Elliott proud.

How grateful I am to the "years of hard work" by this wonderful person, Ralph.N.Elliott that we could understand market movements at the darkest hour too.
My gratefulness extends to those technical analysis developers- Gerald Appel (Macd), Wells Wilder (Rsi), George Lane (Stochastics), Leonardo Fibonacci (Fibonacci retracements)as well as fundamental analysis expert Peter Lynch (Fundamental analysis).
Truly blessed we would be if we can make the best use of their works and educate a few in our life times.
The 4th wave ended by breaking the channel bottom & reversed sharply, a typical trait of the 5th wave. Note also the 3rd wave (5367) ended by overshooting the channel top, a trait of 3rd waves in general.
A simple calculation gives 5522 as the target for the 5th wave. (5210+312(5098-4786)=5522)
A move above 5325 would confirm a break above the corrective channel from 5367 to 5210. In the end, it turned out to be a shallow one only with a dramatic ending this morning.
The crucial "Monthly TA" turned up firmly after whipsawing for the last two days. This could set up for a very big move provided certain levels are held.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

There was a "spark" last night, followed by "FIRE".
When you spot an end of a wave in the daily time frame(3rd), you must reverse your position. I did not though I saw this correction coming, prejudiced in my little brain it would be a shallow one. Those who play by the Tech. table, even if they were whipsawed twice, would end being a big gainer.
TA inventors of RSI, ROC, MACD, EW's Ralph.N.Elliott, Fundamental analysts like Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, Warren buffett, Fibonacci mathematician and many have spent their entire life to create some outstanding studies for the coming generations to benefit from.
Many sensible people are following their studies, improvising them to the changing environment and benefiting from it all silently.
"Criticising" is the easiest thing to do. Businessmen(including traders/investors) who are interested in the "serious money making endeavour" will either use whatever is working and discard whatever isn't working.
If the "excel sheet" is a failure to you...EW has failed you...TA has let you down, start introspecting for your own sake, not for the excel sheet, EW, TA as they don't need you. If you are a wise person, you will seek good counsel.
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I have presented this chart. make your plan and if it does not look promising, wait for a better one. Do not chase prices. Get your levels which will have your Sl quite close by. This chart is yet to make a negative divergence which will happen only with a new high.
It is my mistake, I had to change my original plan. As "Yoda" put it simply, sell below 5-ema close & buy above 5-ema close would fetch you big returns.
Today's rally could be "iv"th of the "c" wave of the 4th and another move down too is possible. So the strategy is buy closer to 5165-5200(+/-15)

Elliott wave - a simple labeling

When you study Elliott waves in the application of trading/ investing, have the Buddhist principle of "Balance" in mind & follow them. Apply them to daily/ weekly charts more and less to hour charts. When it is not clear/ obvious, do not force a label.
Believe me, it is the easiest of all, mostly misunderstood and the major failure by its practitioners is due to "not believing what they see in the first place and thereby complicating it".
An Invitation to enter the world of Elliott waves - Part-1
Introduction to Elliott & his Wave Theory - Part-2
Elliott wave Principle-Rules & Guidelines - Part-3
Elliott wave Corrections - Part-4

Nifty's correction gets deeper.

Month which was in "Sell on rise mode" since May.10 has its High ema @ 5285- a close above tomorrow will reverse the month TA. Watch for "5285".
Daily channel break may get supports from 20sma @ 5195-5205.
Long term channel which was broken in the last fall from 5400 to 4786 will come into play @ 5165-5175 zone. A second break would be bearish.
NF 5-min chart has been trading down from the channel top towards the channel bottom - there are two supports, one has given supports today and the other, if there is negative cues, may offer supports tomorrow @ 5190-5205 zone.
With quick succession, the day emas have given sell, buy and now a sell. Quite challenging.
But the EW's 4th wave possibility should have guided you to the "Hour emas" for trading those days. I would give two more days (max.) for this correction to complete and show signs of reversal. Bank Nifty gives cause for concern..

Nifty Intraday update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday update-I

Nifty Premarket View.

I would like our "Doctor friends" to respond to this:
Whenever a patient comes to the doctor complaining of an illness, the basic steps a doctor takes is to check the patient's
Heartbeat with his stethoscope
Pulse rate with his fingers
Blood pressure with BP monitor AND
more tests done from the labs if the situation warrants.
Such a disciplined doctor makes correct progress - the easy way..the disciplined way.
No doctor gets obsessed with BP or pulse, etc but uses it to gauge the severity of the illness and he does not treat the symptoms but the illness with the acquired knowledge of these symptoms that was generated by the illness.
IN MARKETS too, just the study of prices may give you only supports and resistances but never the strength/ weaknesses or their continuity. The oscillator- study is similar to various tests done by the doctor to know the nature of the illness (One such example is given below with the 9 day Rsi chart) and using these one follows the market well.
Knowing about the disease is the primary job of the doctor and he does a better job of it by using these study of symptoms. Even EW practioners have found the use of oscillators as a great guide to label the moves - ask Robert Prechter.
As long as the trader limits himself to the study of oscillators/ indicators as "tools" only to understand the market's strength/ weakness/ direction and NOT get carried away/ obsessed by them, he/she would be on his/her path to "Getting rich slowly".

Nifty gets its momentum with 5285 support.

The momentum is back but "a follow up buying" should be seen. If not, it would be termed as the fake 'b' wave of the 4th wave with another move to "low ema" or lower to complete this correction closer to the channel bottom.
A complete "green" in the tech table and the 55 ema has moved above 55 sma to confirm the last bullish set up but the 13 ema has moved below 13sma and so too 5 period ema/sma - they should turn to green soon or else the short term could face weakness. (See them in the last few rows)

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

At 1.38PM: Another fast rise set up is emerging with 13 min + 55 min combo.

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty PreMarket View.

Week end Analysis

In Life or in Football or in markets, You win if you are willing to die for it....go the extra mile.....take a loss...risk something.

Fight for those inches..Claw yourself into a winning position, inch by inch.
That is getting rich slowly.
So what you gonna do now..?
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Bull is reading it as a larger correction having ended @ 4786 and a new upmove is underway with short term in a corrective mode upto 5175 or 5100. Weekly Rsi should give some underlying strength/ weaknesses with 45 - 60 break out in the coming weeks.
Bear is confident of a top @ 5400 and the current upmove is only a corrective rally in an "abc' fashion ending @ 5367 and the second round of fall has commenced(first being 5400 to 4786).
Bulls want to close the month above 5285 to reverse the monthly TA. Bears would want to move below 5175 and then 5100.
Trader takes advantage of these large ranges to their advantage, fine tune their trading with shorter time frame TA and make some smart moves at the right time till the market makes up its mind and shows its hand .
If we count the move from 4786 as impulsive, the 4th down is on and as per EW rules it should not move into 1st wave which ended @ 5098. As per quantitative analysis, the 2nd wave correction was 137 & 181 points, hence a correction within 140-180 is acceptable within this uptrend from 5367 - upto 5230 to 5186.(averaging 5207, the last panic low)
Market has given us some excellent divergences to trade and we are getting closer to one such divergence in the making. A high is in @ 5367 and a low is expected @ 5185-5230 (Or is it made already..?) after which a new high with lower readings in the oscillators would give a perfect negative divergence trade like in the past two occasions. And this divergence should appear in the daily chart for more effectiveness.
Watch those foot ball matches...they teach you so much.

Yaen..Yendra kelvi..? Why...a question..?

“Like a flowing river” - Paulo Coelho
I was forced to wonder how many things we do are imposed on us by necessity, or by the absurd. Why wear a tie? Why do clocks run “clockwise”? If we live in a decimal system, why does the day have 24 hours of 60 minutes?
The fact is, many of the rules we obey nowadays have no real foundation. Nevertheless, if we wish to act differently, we are considered “crazy” or “immature”. Meanwhile, society continues to create some systems which, in the fullness of time, lose their reason for existence, but continue to impose their rules. An interesting Japanese story illustrates what I mean by this:
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The importance of Cat in meditation:

A great Zen Buddhist master, who was in charge of the Mayu Kagi monastery, had a cat which was his true passion in life. So, during meditation classes, he kept the cat by his side – in order to make the most of his company.
One morning, the master – who was already quite old – passed away. His best disciple took his place.
– What shall we do with the cat? – asked the other monks.
As a tribute to the memory of their old instructor, the new master decided to allow the cat to continue attending the Zen Buddhist classes.

Some disciples from the neighboring monasteries, traveling through those parts, discovered that, in one of the region’s most renowned temples, a cat took part in the meditation sessions. The story began to spread.

The Last Leaf, a masterpiece.

In the 1890s, many artists lived in Greenwich Village, in New York City. Sue and Johnsy were artists. The two girls met each other in the month of May, at a restaurant in Greenwich Village.
‘I’m from the State of Maine,’ Sue said to Johnsy. ‘I draw pictures for stories in magazines.’
‘I’m from California,’ Johnsy said to Sue. ‘But I want to go to Italy. I want to paint a picture of the Bay of Naples!’ The two girls talked happily for an hour – about art, about clothes, about food.
Soon after their first meeting, Sue and Johnsy moved into a studio apartment together. Their rooms were at the top of an old brick house in Greenwich Village. In December, it was very cold in New York. Snow fell and there was ice in the ground. Many people in the city became ill. The illness was called pneumonia. The doctors tried to help the sick people, but many of them died.
That month, Johnsy had pneumonia. She was very ill. She lay in her bed and she did not move. A doctor visited her every day. But Johnsy was not getting better.
One morning, the doctor spoke quietly to Sue outside Johnsy’s room. ‘I can’t help her,’ the doctor said. ‘She is very sad. She doesn’t want to live. Someone must make her happy again.

Nifty starts the series with the correction.

Arunima's Fibonacci Table Link for downloading is given in the top side-bar. It has the instructions in the relevant excel cells.

Thank you, Arunima.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I