Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Nifty PreMarket View.

FIRE's target analysis made do my bit on the chart itself. Direction is more important though target analysis helps you out with likely price clusters to watch out for reversal possibilities.
Though it looks lengthy, go with the flow..you could understand the logic quite well.This is quantity analysis at its best.
Hi..Fire.. Tell them how much time it took to get to these and also the possibility of making such an analysis during trending moves with an "Excel calculations" so others too attempt in a simple, easy way.
As usual the positive global cues may be used to initiated "Our trending trades".
Thank you Fire for such a meticulous one. You'll keep good company with AAR VEE.

In Ratio Analysis, calculating a W-5 target is easier than the other waves, just for the reason that more information is available. It is a bit tougher for W-3. But we can try. Here, I am assuming that 3.(3).iii is indeed going on.

There are various kinds of Ratio projection, e.g. External Retracement, APP(Alternate Price Projection, Price Expansion etc. I am using only External Retracement here. The things to remember are ---

Wave 3 is usually the extended Impulse Wave (Especially in Stock market).

Wave 3 is related to Wave 1 by 100 %( minimum), but in general terminates on or very near to 161.8%-261.8% of Wave 1,

Wave 3 is frequently related to Wave 2 by 161.8%, 200% or 261.8%.

We would look for clusters of possible targets to get the most probable target zone (similar to using the TT for supports/resistances).

Now, starting from the smallest timeframe, for 3.(3).iii---

3.(3).i (384 points) gives us targets of ---

5172 (5556-384)

4935 (5556-(384*161.8%))

3.(3).ii (154 points) gives us targets of

5307 (5556-(154*161.8%)) Achieved today

5248 (5556-(154*200%))

5153 (5556-(154*261.8%))

Now, going back to the larger timeframe, for 3.(3) ---

3.(1) (483 points) gives us targets of ---

5318 (5801-483) Achieved today

5020 (5801-(483*161.8%))

4835 (5801-(483*200%))

3.(2) (250 points) gives us targets of ---

5397 (5801-(250*161.8%)) Achieved

5301 (5801-(250*200%)) Nearly achieved

5146 (5801-(250*261.8%))

Now, going back to a still larger timeframe, for 3 ---

1 (648 points) gives us targets of ---

5533 (6181-648) Achieved long back

5133 (6181 – (648*161.8%))

4885 (6181 – (648*200%))

2 (491 points) gives us targets of ---

5387 (6181-(491*161.8%)) Achieved today

5199 (6181-(491*200%))

4896 (6181-(491*261.8%))

So, we get a few clusters now, which could be the target zone, i.e.

5133-5199 (especially 5133-5153)

4885-4935 (4835 & 5020 are not too far though).

With deepest regards,

Your humble student,

Fire




32 comments:

San said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends

Nifty daily analysis: CLICK HERE

Prabakar said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir, San and Friends.

Prabakar said...

Sir, Have you had the chance to view my posting yesterday evening? Just curious to know your views.

Mohan garg said...

good morning to all

INDITRADER said...

Gm Illango Sir & all.

@ raja sir how U like my new inutiative?

Rajagopal said...

Good Morning Sir and Friends.

Musti - good beginning and effort. Posted request in your blog y'day.

gauresh59 said...

Good Morning ilango sir and friends,

Today's quote received :

Four steps to LIVE LIFE:
1st : Look Back & Thank GOD
2nd : Look Forward & Trust GOD
3rd : Look Around & Believe GOD
4th : Look Within You & Find GOD.

Life gives answer in 3 ways...It says Yes & gives you what you want..It says No & gives you something better...It says Wait & gives you the Best.

Good Morning...!!!

Prashant said...

Sir,
can't we assume this to be the 5th of 3rd? targetting 5150

jay shah said...

gm sir and freinds

INDITRADER said...

@ Raja sir,
I posted all trades as per my study only.
cant able to post Gold levels on daily basis as there are
6 other Commodity available for trading.
So Y to stuck only with Gold?

Piyush Sharda said...

@gauresh.
amazing stuff everyday. thanks

Rajagopal said...

Got it Musti. Infact my request was to keep a larger list apart from bullion.

u.k.Raj said...

Good Morning ALL

prashant shah said...

jay bapu gm... nifty sell karo kal na low ni niche open karyu che

manu said...

Sir & family
gm..
even thinking f longs take nerves

Only Nifty said...

ORB broke downside...

prashant shah said...

sab ko mandi mkt mein namskaramm :)

INDITRADER said...

Raja sir not understand?
U mean Agri also?

INDITRADER said...

@ all commodity lovers,
with blessings of Almighty God Yesterday I post 5 trades in
commodity section.
4 Hit all targets & 1 Sl hit.
I hope Illango sir not mind of posting it here.

Indian Trader said...

Namaste India

Ilango said...

"5253"-the minimum target as per the chart done.It is only the minimum.

Next would be 5212 & 5188(1.25 times & 1.38 times) when 5253 is broken.

Fire said...

Good Morning Master & everyone.

Master,

I have been encouraged and inspired by you and all these wonderful fellow members. Just like Prabhakar last night gave me the impetus to shrug off my innate laziness.(Woke up late :))

Thank you once again.

@Prabhakar,

This study wouldn't take place without you. Thank you. And keep your wonderful analysis around.

@RG,

Where were you for the last two days? Missed you around... :)

jay shah said...

gm prashantbhai

Prabakar said...

Dear Fire,

Thanks and also inspire me to learn along.

And yes missing RG sir and Sujatha mam. Both together can make JN family Humorous and enjoy there trading
day..

rrknan said...

how long will 5253 hold ??

Ilango said...

@ Prabhakar,

Be assured of the fact that you have been burning the midnight oil and keeping everyone "awake" here. That is quite a lot these days.

We continue to look at the market from various angles/ perspectives without a bias and keeping the current trend in mind.

Rajagopal said...

Fire / Prabha - tied up a bit. Really enjoyed Fire's analysis. Will be back with you all.

rrknan said...

short covering started??

santosh said...

now whts the tgt for u sir

Ilango said...

NEW POST DONE.

Prabakar said...

Sir,

I apologize if it brings uncomfort to JN family. I will reduce it.

magfi said...

good work its very helpfull,fire sir
and ilango sir thanks for publishing
awaitnig for 12 noon update

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