If you are following TA, do as it shows you.
If you are following EW, do as it unfolds.
If you are following MP, do as it dictates to you.
If you are follwing SAR, do as it changes.
If you are following "your intuition", do as it guides you.
But don't argue & waste yours and others time and don't compare your trades with others as most don't reveal theirs. In general...don't make NOISE. Be specific .. to the point.. to the facts..
If we could trade this down move from 6339 till now following our various methods successfully, we could continue our journey further ahead in the same manner with out predicting but by simply "following" our methods...your methods.
I reproduce here one such meticulous study done by FIRE & my reply and it made me produce a NF chart which might be useful for Monday's trading. Thank you FIRE.
Your success in the stock market comes down to your consistency in following your chosen methods and methods being man made will have their share of failures which are well managed with proper exit & reversal plans. When you follow the markets strictly, you are the true trader..not a bull..not a bear.
25 comments:
Master,
I am honored. What more can I say? I just hope to learn more from you and this forum in the coming days. And hopefully some tidbits in my way of returning all these...
Thank YOU for everything,
Dear Fire,
Appreciation from Master alone is the greatest Honour. What more to say?
Excellent analysis sticking to your preferred method. Thanks.
Thank you Sir for sharing.
@ Fire,
Good analysis. Keep going great!!
Thanks Sir for sharing
@Fire
No Magic No Miracle .... simply Technical ... and the best ...... Hats Off to you fire ....
All this combined with the TA of JN has proved the best ...
I remember Ilango Sir had given an Agressive call in Jan at 6181 in the morning update..... And Still counting on .....
Great work fire ...
The best (or simplest) thing I find in EW is to count the 5s and 3s ... what you rightly called the pattern ... finding the price target is often difficult.
My fortune to be in such a Gurukul. Thanks sir.
Regards,
Rajib
Very nice analysis Fire & nice summing up from Ilango.
Regards
Umash
@Fire
Splendid!
This kind of price analysis will guide our trade in more profitable way. Thank you.
@Sir Thank you.
Michelle’s husband :
One night President Obama and his wife Michelle decided to do something out of routine and go for a casual dinner at a restaurant that wasn’t too luxurious. When they were seated, the owner of the restaurant asked the president’s secret service if he could please speak to the First Lady in private. They obliged and Michelle had a conversation with the owner.
Following this conversation President Obama asked Michelle, why was he so interested in talking to you. She mentioned that in her teenage years, he had been madly in love with her. President Obama then said, “so if you had married him, you would now be the owner of this lovely restaurant”, to which Michelle responded, “no, if I had married him, he would now be President.”
can someone provide with afl where in I need 5DEMA, 5DLEMA, 5DHEMA, weekly emas-high, low- all in one afl I need please.
http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/2011/02/ew-analysis-with-fire.html
Nice analysis Fire..
Previsouly I started learning EW but somehow I'm unable to get a grip on the charts to start with waves and its counting ...
Till date, Im confused to the limit we have to divide the subwaves..
As I can see that pivots, supports, ema, etc are always one and the same with every TA but when comes with EW analysis everyone gives their own way of starting point for first wave which is the most confusing part for me to apply EW in realtime. some other keep on dividing waves into subwaves and what is the limit for this i'm unable to understand.
coz, if i take a chart im confused where to start for drawing a wave..
Sir and other EW experts here please tell me how you arrive at a starting point for showing a wave in any chart ..
In Economics if we ask 5 experts to define a term then there will be 6 definitions for the same term. this is the proverb for synonymous definitions of economics terminology.
Is it the same with EW theory?
how different EW analysts give different chart analysis of waves in the same given time period. can someone clarify my doubt which may be silly but for me its the starting point to learn EW theory.
Dear Friends,
Am definitely not an expert or tech.analyst but used to share my understanding here,particularly from day trading point of view.Here something from long term view.
In 2008 before that great worldwide fall,Nifty was trading at 6300 levels & it's 200 DMA was around 5000 then.That time the up-move from 4000 to 6000 was very fast.
Now a days 200 DMA is above 5600 and though Nifty went near all time high couldn't cross that all time high with conviction both times.
For further all time high,Now from here if Market wants to go further up then it requires outstanding economical growth numbers not only from Indian market but worldwide.The current worldwide market recovery from "that" fall is very much ahead of the time,more speculative,artificial & managed than the fundamentals.Our market is well ahead in that matter.So.... has it given an early indication what is going to happen even for world markets in coming months? Because at present it does not look very promising that a great economical atmosphere worldwide shall be there in future though have zero knowledge in fundamentals & economy.
The future is unknown,till then shall wait for Nifty to cross 5605 first with conviction & shall remember always that the 200 DMA/100 Week EMA will also rise from here with current Value of PE ratio 20.67
Special thanks to Dear Pawan Jangid for 100WEMA "then" & Now & remind the same about "then" & present PE ratio.
Hello Blogmates,
Its really enriching to see the kind of discussion going on in this forum. I share the same view as vidya's regarding EW counts. But others things though known to me earlier, I never applied it. Now after joining this forum I have started to apply many concepts of trading. I am still a beginner. My area of weakness has been executing the trade. Hope to overcome this soon with the insight of you all
Thanks
Glen Neely on how to determine the start or ending of a wave:
Question:
How can you determine the beginning and end of a wave?
Answer:
This is one of the most basic, but important, questions ever asked in this forum. Because of its importance, it is addressed (in great detail) very early in Mastering Elliott Wave (MEW). In Chapter 2 of MEW I describe the proper way to plot charts. If you use bar charts, futures data, candlesticks or moving averages to do your wave analysis, you will be sadly disappointed with your results or your ability to analyze and forecast markets. You'll repeatedly need to go back in time to adjust past structure to fit future reality.
If you want reliable, consistently accurate wave patterns, that stand the test of time, you must begin with the right type of chart - what I call a WAVE chart. Even with this process, there will be times (near the center of formations) when price action simply can't be predicted. But, here's how you create charts that provide the proper foundation for good wave analysis.
1. Use Cash data (this is essential) whenever possible
2. The high and low of each period (hourly, daily, weekly, monthly) must be determined
3. Those highs and lows must be plotted, as dots, equidistant apart, in the order they occurred in real time
4. Each dot must then be connected, with a straight line, to its next closest dot.
The resulting chart is a highly accurate representation of the ebb and flow of price history. EVERY TURN in price (of a properly drawn, cash chart) creates a single "wave," or what I call a "monowave." Those monowaves are the building blocks of all Elliott and NEoWave patterns.
Just for the record, 7 Billion Dollars were removed from Emerging Market funds last week, which is the highest in the last 3 yrs.Not even 10% of that was from India.So the point i am trying to make is that this is not India specific selling alone but more of an emerging market selloff.
In the US 21/23 sectors are at a 52 week high, showing the strength in the market breadth prevailing at present.More of a case of funds flying back home
Dear Fire ,
U have put the blog on fire today with ur fine analysis.keep consistently following TA and the method/system u develop for urself.
Keep it up. Hope there is lot more to see from u.
Thanks
Regards
Friday was the sixth trading day on which the markets closed below their 200 DMA.The last time the markets breached 200 DMA was for 7 days.This is the third time in the entire upmove from March 2009 that we have kissed the 50 Week EMA.Previous two occasions the market bounced back from 50WMA quite sharply
Nifty below 50 week ema:
may 2004 (lasted upto july 04)
june 2006..just touch n go
march 2008 (lasted upto april 08)
may 08( lasted upto april 09..almost 1year)*1400points
after that...its in jan 2011 and still continues...
so this is 5th time after 2004 that the market closed below 50week ema and sustaining.
nifty close below monthly 10ema :
may 2004
mar 2008
may 2008 to mar 2009
after mar 09 ...now closed clearly below jan 11 and also now feb continues
so 2 years of bull run..almost ended..???
Monthly 20ema stands at 5255 around. So, market respects this level or still no mercy??
sir and blogmates, appreciable, if you please help me with the afl to get daily weekly monthy emas displayed on the same chart in amibroker.
This will save much time for me instead of navigating between charts of all these time frames.
Sorry not to mention before-
Thanks Sir ,for sharing the fine work of the blogmates.
Regards
Current level on the nifty is also dot at the 61.8% retracement of the rise from May 2010 levels (4800 Nifty)
Hi to all
this is my first post,i am aggry with bull.cartel
and resone is that in 2010 this 5400 resitnce take
nearly sevan month with(Diagonal triengle)
three top three botam pettern
so this support will be saw its effect,
with respect to all senior
@Vidya
Try this one out, it is written for plotting 5 day high, low and close EMA and 5 week high, low and close EMA.
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B8e3dtbFwQWUYWVjNDY2YjgtNDI0My00NzU0LWJiMjAtZjAwMzliOTYzZmU3&sort=name&layout=list&num=50
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