Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
I 'll always be there for you. To make you feel that you're secured. And even if the rain is pouring hard and the sky is almost dark... -
Trading strategy that works wonders besides the supports & Resistance is " Retracement strategy ": The strategy that has wor...
77 comments:
@Ilango Sir,
In all probabilities, closing will be far below Monthly Low EMA and as per your pre Market view, it is bearish...would be really helpful if you could elaborate a bit.
Regards
RS
Sriram Ji,
Markets hates the word "Stability" now a days..
The moment it heard it it showed up its true color.
TIA,
Renju.S
nifty trying to create confusion by implying that an a-b-c is done at 5360
5468-5388 (a); 5388 - 5425 (b); 5425 - 5360 (c)
let us see if the market can reverse its direction from here
@Sir,
Stochastics - 35 Hour D means.Can u plz. explain the exact params to setup the indicator on charts.
Not an expert...that's why asking such trivial question.
Ilango Sir,
If the month TA turns extremely bearish with close below MLEMA, will
(1) The positive divergence on the daily charts as well as
(2) Double hammer on the weekly chart
cease to have any effect.
Basically what will the negation point for both? Or, should we just ignore these in the face of latest strong signal from Monthly TA (In case the close is below MLEMA)
Please reply if the time permits.
Thanx and many regards
NK
5400 is now 38% retracement to 5469-5360 fall
5336 (coincide with L4) is 38% retracement to rise 5119-5469.. below which more weakness.
Which levels broke now?
MMS speaking at last... but what did he speak....
Luks like he is more PM of a party than of the country!!!!
Fibbo Retracements
0% (b) 5,459
23.6% 5,378.76
38.2% 5,329.12
50% 5,289
61.8% 5,248.88
76.4% 5,199.24
100% (a) 5,119
If this fall is a ZZ "b", Channel LTL comes ruffly near 5330-40NS
Else a WXy may also be developing, either case Dev.WkLo is the critical level @ 5368 to watch for Wk TA
Close < DloEMA is still far away , FOR NOW
TAKE AWAY:
Need more Obsv to decipher if "b" or new Downward Sub-frac
Hi-prob Long setup may come if we trade near 5330-40 NS, with OTM PE adds ;
or
if we take out the "suspect" 0-B line @ 5400 NS ruffly..
"5392-99" is 50%-61.8% retrace of intraday fall from 5423 to 5360.
80% is 5410.
If weakness to return again, it should be around 5392-99 zone.
Strength gets confirmed above 5400 & 5410.
Ilango is in mood. :)
Cant get better than this for spoon feeders like us
@ NK,
Understand that all T/F technicals work when it matters most.
A highly bearish month signal need not result in 1st to 30th of September to be bearish.
There will be counter trend moves based on other T/F.
Knowing the higher trend strength should make you wary of overbought conditions in lower T/F.
@ Aly Bhai agree ..
Nice to see master in full swing :D
@Aly
totally agreed with u spoon feeding at it's best by sir.
Thanks Sir.
Ilango Sir,
Understood. Thanx for the explanation.
NK
today's spoon feeding and market volatility is a big big lesson...i wish it could be recorded to be watched later on and take lessons with sir's teachings'
thank you, master,,i cannot even think to revert back this courtesy!
Ilango Sir.. a question for JNSAR followers.. even after keeping filter, JNSAR has given few whipsaws over the last 2 days and last week as well at 5450.. how to stay with the trend sir in these times and avoid whipsaws.. please guide.
Master
Monthly closing below 5479 will be considered bearish and the alternative of C downwards gets resolved today.
Nifty may try another close around 5400 today to keep everyone hanging to their positions
Aly
Please let SIr Continue to guide in simple terms with more frequent interactions.
Muffs like me badly need it.
Back benches
Ravi
Master
One request
Post closing, if you can please update the closing sheet wrt implications/probabilities wrt larger monthly trend.
Master,
Prima-facie this fall to be seen as Corrective (Stadn alone FORM basis) , or wud u reserve judgement , pending behaviour near 61.8%-80% ?
My conservative short stopped out.
sir is it posiible that wave 3.1 as ld and wave 3.2 as irregular or running flat.is it avlid count?
sir please give answer......
"5415-27" is 50%-61.8% retrace of intraday fall from 5469 to 5360.
80% is 5447.
If weakness to return again, it should be around 5415-27 zone.
Strength gets confirmed above 5430 & 5450.
@ divya thakor,
Possibilities are "Many" at this juncture.
Follow tech.table for guidance.
With filter the short is still alive...:):)
@ shriram,
Big downside momentum signal would be generated today;
Intra month, the lower T/F technicals could rule for a while and month trend would assert at the later part of Sept.
This is the view.
Master,
Thank u !
@ Saurabh,
The only way to reduce whipsaws is know the "Wave forms" and use "Fibonacci retrace strategy" to manage trades. Though you may reverse your trades, the whipsawing losses will be quite minimum and sometimes "NIL".
These are special times when trends of week & month are "fighting out". Such large trend will need "more space".
HI,
Are we short or Long as per JNSAR?
Please clarify.
mates,
nifty closed below MHEMA in july and august gave such a ferocious fall.....what will september do, when nifty closing below MLEMA...week and day when overbought intra month would give a very beautiful high reward-low risk trade setup and a sound mind and sir's guidance should make us act timely.
@ ToT-Amit,
Ilango said...
"5392-99" is 50%-61.8% retrace of intraday fall from 5423 to 5360.
80% is 5410.
If weakness to return again, it should be around 5392-99 zone.
Strength gets confirmed above 5400 & 5410.
August 30, 2013 at 2:22 PM
------------------------------------------------------
By moving above "5400", also JNSAR, Nifty showed strength.
One of the ways to reduce whipsaws.
5440ns is taken out. But I would wait till Monday opening for next trade.
Too close to MLEma.
Moving SL to cost price (5410); cant believe this market :D
3.00PM TT & Chart Updated.
Stop loss for shorts hit...at 5420...Long now...:):)
can anyone explain why this big discount in nf?!!!
Thank you Sir :)
STBSTB
Patting myself for reversing to longs @ 5410 :D
AxisBank - 15 Min chart : Today went up to to touch (and overshoot little) from rising wedge then came down to bottom line and break it... Target is just below 800 Cash (790 approx).
moving stop loss for longs closer to nifty as it has a habit of falling faster near EoD
STBSTB,
Markets lives up to your display name today... ROFL
market technicals changing as bulls desperately trying to take nifty above MLEMA
RoseM...:):) All of us are STBSTB at some point in time in the market...:)
KIS.....Keep it simple
and
STJ....Stick to JNSAR
and
BR....Be robotic.
Three whipsaws today but that is part of the game.....one huge trend will pay for all the whipsaws plus much more...:):)
Ns stop loss moved to 5445
shriram,
nf premium was 14-15 points when nifty touched 5469 and now it is at 15 discount..nifty highs but not NF
is month end cash buying responsible and does it signify anything? should we read into this?
similiarly options have not broken their resp highs/lows
Fractal playout of rise from 5254 to 5529. I would be careful with longs
Sarvesh
Just a guess, Market also realising the monthly signal generated today.
NS stop moved to 5455 now
today's movement looks like irregular abc where a, b are done. We can have one more down move...Just an idea.
seems like closing above DHEMA but below MLEMA
Hope GDP data at 5'o clock wont spoil the show for monday :)
Above JNSAR and possibly close above DHEMA, should carry longs over the weekend
@ Sarvesh,
Lets summarize,
Close
1: EOW < WkEMA
2. EOM < MnLoEMA
3. EOD > DHiEMA
To simple eyes.. a 5wave form may have completed now as 5119-5487 ? Not sure..
@ shriram,,yeh agreed seems like 5th wave up, making a new high with possible negative divergence coming in hourly, 30 minutes charts...still to devolp though,,answers lie next week
Why do a person need to come and say stories on GDP and Investor sentiments before an event.
I smell something fishy on a long run.
avg clsing 5463.85 and rising but no hope to close above MLEMA!!!
0ooo, claps for the last attempt...for bulls...too little too late
5466.16
can it close above 5479 ....
@ shriram,
the whole correction in its form and volatility looked like a B wave .. still ion learning process, i think one more leg up as C pending with fib projections for the A from 5119-5469 taken into account..do you second that?
5471
Sir, if it is close above Mlema then can we assume c as ED targeting 6000 (Mhema+40)? Then this wave will treat as x wave?
Usually "Head" of any institutions / organization / department come and say things to public that things are not so bad as you see/listen....just to pacify us...but in reality what turns up is the question.
looks like a hanging man today.
between 5472-74
@ shriram,
the retracement was almost 32% of 350 point move from 5119...is it too short to be called B wave?
@ Sarvesh,
Looking @ FORM, it looks to me that 5119-5490 might be one 5wave "A" .. nearing end of a "A"
More over weekend, bye all !
wow.....
valiant efforts by bulls almost tookout MLEMA
@ sir, i shall remember this day, forever..big lesson.shall help in putting things in their perspectives more in future also...thanks for your guidance...learning the bigger picture!
thanks shriram!
agreed @ Amit Kumar. Seems identical to the rise we saw from 5470 to 5750...Monday should be interesting for a new signal I guess..
Good weekend all !
Thanks Sir !
Thank god .... now I will look for short around whema+20 points
Close dot at up-trending channel lower line
and also at the last week hammer close
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