Monday, June 13, 2011

Nifty PreMarket View

If it is at the terminal stage of this "b" wave correction, it normally ends by today or latest by tomorrow holding above either 5385 or 5405. However, there is no rule that a correction has to end at 61.8% or 80% and so on. It could retrace the entire rise too(5329). You choose one option and execute your trading plan with proper SL.
Part booking & re-initiating the trade will keep you in a trade for a long time and in deep profits.
This conservative trade is mixed with a lot of aggressiveness. Alternatively, you can choose to "reverse to Longs" only on a move above 5520 for the day.

31 comments:

San said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends

State Bank of India Analysis: CLICK HERE

chetan said...

good morning sir,seniors & friends.

SAM said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and All. I think Nifty Spot Price is not updated in Conservative trade table.(5521)

shiva said...

good morning,seniors..

Lucky said...

GM All

Regards

John

Prabakar said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and JN Family

parimal said...

good morning Master and all seniors have a great day

Vipin7 said...

Good morning all

Debdeep said...

Good Morning Ilango Sir and Friends.

Alisha Jain said...

Gud Morning Ilango Sir..

Nifty Trend and Tips

raman said...

@ MASTER!
http://postimage.org/image/1baehvtac/

Vipin7 said...

niftyfut in premium!

Ram Charan said...

vix at 19.07....

gauresh59 said...

Good Morning ilango sir and friends,

Don’t place your mistakes on your head, their weight may crush you….
Instead, place them under your feet & use them as a platform to view your horizons.

Let us not seek perfection......Because we are not perfect.
Let us not judge......Because we are not Gods.
Let us not dictate......Because we are not tyrants.
We are Human…
We Learn…We Fall…We Fail…
We Get Up…We Reach Out…
We Help…We Live…We Conquer…We Let Go… but…
We Never GIVE UP.
- Joey Junior Bones

raman said...

@Master Ilango, plz comment @ above count
i.e. possibility of alternate count?
I m in profit @ spot as i was buying & covering puts frm 5600.
So, covered the position after opening (@SUPPORT:5450) considering ur count.

raman said...

http://postimage.org/image/1baehvtac/

Kumar Technicals said...

Good Morning Everybody!

Dear jigs, SAM & parimal!

Thanx for giving ur encouraging comments on my blog, Nowadays busy in guests so updation very late. Thanx again & tk cr:)

Rgrds,

Kumar

brijsolution said...

Gm Sir & Friends,,

Nifty 5420 imp to break

Pankaj Shukla said...

Today 5450 may be tested and just for today we may hold it,
but tomorrow...................

Indian Trader said...

Good Morning Sir and Friends...

Pankaj Shukla said...

sorry 5350....

Kumar Technicals said...

I covered all my shorts here at 5445 spot & took some long, will buy more near 5425-5400.

Justin said...

Good morning

Most definitely on closing basis.

That long lower spike on friday`s candle implies that nifty found support at the lower levels.

This reinforced with 5400PE having the max OI about 87L though OI came down by about 3L or so during the day. This can be attributed to individual writers squaring off in panic.

Also - the vols in May were north of 10K crs in the cash segment.
10 days of just under 10K crs and 12 days of north of 10K crores - avg of these 12 days works out to 11827K crs.

Avg on the other 10 days works out to 9193 crs

In June - session on June 1, 2 and 3 did over 9K crs while the rest of the 5 sessions averaged less than 8K crs. Shows volz declining while market is declining. I intrepret that as bullish in the short term.

unless 5400PE is sq off in huge numbers and the OI drops by 10-15L, it will offer solid support.

Entire month of April - volz were in mid 5 digit except for one day and markets declined all of April.

I feel 5445 should hold on closing basis and mayb even on intraday basis.

I also fee the triangle is playing out and if indeed it is the triangle - we have to get to the upper TL currently at around 5750 and since this line is declining and the rate of decline (approx avg) is 5 points per session.

Wave C took 34 sessions, assuming wave D would be .618 times 34 = 21sessions.

If indeed the current wave is the wave D of triang, it has clocked 13 sessions and 8 more left to target of wave D

Deducting 5 points for each of the left over 8 sessions brings the declining TL to 5750-40 = 5710 which wud be target for D. 8 sessions from Monday gives us Wed 22June, assuming there are no holidays.

My count could be wrong, but this how I plan to trade.

Long via the July 5400CE - to begin with a tight 10 points SL from the entry point.

Once we clear 5503, will write July 5700CE in the ratio of 1 lot long and 1/2 lot July 5700CE.

Once 5556 is cleared will increase the ratio to 1:1

On a rise above 5606 - I will write 1 lot of July 5800CE.

At 5700 - Will Book out of 5400CE and HOLD the short 5700CE and 5800CE with SL at Cost basis

If on 22June or earlier we go over 5725 and the 5700PE wud be bought back either at cost or with a small loss.

If indeed we turn back from 5710-25 zone, Will continue to write 5800CE.

Wave E after the D is tricky, though its direction is down to meet the rising lower TL, if often either falls short and reverses direction or overshoots the lower TL and then reverses direction.

In case this count is fairy tale - Nifty wud not be able to go over the 5605 level and collapse to make new lows via an expanded diagonal. I will just let the SL take me out of the long 5400CE and protect the short 5700CE.

Contracting triangle or Expanded diagonal? We will know by June 22 - certainly by the end of June expiration.

In short - Over 5605 - we are headed to 5700 then a decline of approx 200 points to E and we then make new highs.

If we take out 5328 - we will test and probably violate the 5178-5232 zone.

POWERTRADE said...

Good Morning Sir and Warriors

Dinesh Rishi said...

GM Master and copy to ALL :D

Shradha Saburi said...

@ kumar Sir,
If I buy nifty here what would be its sl.
regards!

brijsolution said...

If anyone like stock then KFA

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear Sharda Saburi!

Kindly read my aggressive buying area with stop loss & target at my blog, just click on my profile & u will reach there.

Ilango said...

New Post Done.

Shradha Saburi said...

@Kumar Sir,
Thanks!

Trading.Signal said...

GM Sir & JN family

TT

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