Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Nifty sells off 5-WkSma after the RBI rate event.

The sharp fall from 6181 to 5625 has not produced any meaningful rally except in BankNifty. Market may have done its settlement blues today. Now it'll be upto two days of world markets' cues that would give a direction, though the larger trend continues to be down.
Three days to go for the monthly close and if it fails to close above 5880, the month TA too will confirm a sell..(After a 700 point fall from the top..!!)
Download the file from the link below:
How to Spot Trading Opportunities - File courtesy Sujatha. Spend some time going through the file. It has helped Sujatha in her trading and it will do to yours too...

8 comments:

manojag said...

Ilango,
In the hourly chart as above you have shown slow macd trend indicator.How does one plot this? Seems to be quite a good indicator by the looks of it.

Unknown said...

seems nobody noticed my post on options this morning...!
did it help anybody ??...:)

RG sir ?

Unknown said...

And as the whole of market fraternity saying....

today's option activity also says the same thing...that 5600 might hold....but in 5600 call, all LONGS seem to have gone out....now interesting is to know where would the expiry end ??!!!

KM said...

@Ka, Thanks. Your post on option did help us but will U please
explain how did u figure out the naked OI builtup in put side?

Unknown said...

Option greeks tell us that clearly...when market WAS STANDING STRONG this morning, greeks was showing completely contrarian character...at first, i was sceptical to post the bearish possibility...but took courage....power of data !!!!

mynac said...

Dear Ilango,
As you said,"if it fails to close above 5880, the month TA too will confirm a sell..(After a 700 point fall from the top..!!)"

The serious roll over for the next series has started just 2 days back.i.e.on 24th & 25th.Out of 1.25,79,000 O.I.exact 85,00,000 O.I.,means almost 70% of the total roll over is between 5691 & 5815 and it is closed near day low i.e.5697.15

The low roll over is the evidence of less participation & skepticism among market participants.Generally market does not fall on low roll over but here the case is different.Nifty is trading near 200 DMA and trying very much hard to sustain above it.The good quantity writing in Feb 5700 CE and PE is suggesting the intentions of Bulls & Bears.Now the tug of war zone is around 5700.
So tomorrow's last day of expiry has become very much important for entire next series.Bulls are likely to pick up Nifty from here it self beyond 5700-5710 immediately,to show their presence/superiority & Bears shall try there after to press Nifty below 5700.Trading below 5660 shall be alarming sign for Bulls & convincingly trading below 5650 shall be confirmation for more down side at least up to 5580.Confirmed trading below 5650,the 200 DMA has not much importance for me.

Tough trading days ahead.Market is always supreme so will find out it's own direction.Let us see.

Unknown said...

@ ka , it helps too much, not only helps, benefited too thanks for the same

desikan said...

Ka, I have the same question as Tigar. How did you figure out about the naked O.I build up on put side.
I am a beginner in F&O and picking up the fundas gradually and hence any clues will be helpful. Thanks

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