Thursday, January 20, 2011
Nifty continues to trade sideways after the 5625 lows..keeping its downtrend intact.
Nifty showed weakness most part of the day trading below DLEma bounced off a double bottom @ 5635 and failed to close above 5DEma (5717), though closed above 5Sma.(Remember Emas are most momentous ones and closing above it has more weightage).Closing near the highs and then gapping down has been the style in bear markets - Yoda has ridden one such bear market.I sensed the frustrations in some traders for having missed the intraday rally. For intraday trading, no one tool will be helpful. Use a combination of trendlines/ divergences(there was a +ve div in 5-min chart at 5635 lows), LEma/ Hr JNSAR trigger, etc., etc. For positional trading, one tool such as JNSAR has been found to be enough and there may be other tools such as MP values/ MACD, etc.
Elliot's Impulse waves.(Part-5)
IMPULSE WAVES :- The Basics Waves that move the market in the direction of its main trend either up or down are called Impulse waves. 1....
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5010-5039 supply zone proved a ST resistance. 5002 proved a break down point. 4945 to 4982 proved a corrective rise, monitored with an ... -
Will not be available to intra update . Suggest one of our readers to update on DHEma-HHEma-HCEma & HLEma for possible support points fo...
10 comments:
Sir,
I was going through the topics on Divergence and came across the below and suits well for today,
i believe.
"When the down trend is nearing its "oversold" &" public apathy" & "Panic" situation, you will notice a +ve div in the down move's 4th & 5th wave down OR in "b" & "c" down OR in "c4" & "c5", there by identifying the start of the 1 st wave."
"Needless to say here that "you are right only when you make money" and that is "act when you should without questioning". "
Bank Nifty consolidate below 200 day EMA since last 5 days and never close above 200 DEMA ( 200 day EMA is 10909 )
Nifty consolidate above 200 day EMA since last 5 days and never close below 200 DEMA( 200 day EMA is 5650 )
Moving past 5750,resistance at 5800-5850 levels
as per Median line charting.
- short covering in NF
- closure of long positions in 5400-800 puts ; significant is that of 5500 strike. A glimmer of hope for this expiry ?
( your respected critic's view plz )
- short covering in 5700-900 calls.
inspite of the above my hunch says we might struggle to get past 5765-785.
whats your view point sir ?
and, mynac's view would also be very valuable here ?
regards
Ka, I think the worrying matter is FIIs are net sellers in Index futures/options and cash market.
At what levels did they sell so much? If at the day's high in the closing session then one more trip tomorrow to 5650 levels? Must be clever and cunning bears.
hi shr....
would obviously be at high levels that made us to struggle to sustain the momentum in the end and also saw NS closing below imp D EMA !
Here, mynac would have lovely comments !
sgx so far is holding tight at that imp band of 5680-90 levels which tomm might give us a chance to go longs...lets see..
Dear Ka,
Your option data observations are always very nice and as you said, “my hunch says we might struggle to get past 5765-785" has definitely meaning.
Huge selling by FII in cash, The deletion of O.I.in NF, Huge Profit booking particularly in 5700CE, in just 100 points, by squaring off 15.81 lac is not good sign. This is indicating that Strong Bulls done a thing by fair means or foul to make the most of this rally. Only strong buying above today's close may save Nifty.
If Nifty shall start to trade sub 5700 then, this time would not try any bottom fishing in early trades.Because
Ilango said...
@ Ka,
It is possible markets may move up & make another high past 5680 before falling.
Trading firmly above 5700 alone will be strength.
January 20, 2011 12:29 PM
The lighter NF O.I. is always dangerous when Nifty trades near its peak or near its bottom because any strong addition can show new top or even new bottom due to momentum. Let us see. Good Night.
Ka Said,
"sgx so far is holding tight at that imp band of 5680-90 levels"
mynac said,
"Only strong buying above today's close may save Nifty"
Dear Ka,
just saw today's sgx quotes.
Just look top for E* Jan 11 sgx today.It is 5713.
Let us see tomorrow.GN
Dear Sir,
In the TT above, for calculating the Fibo levels you have taken the high of 14th Jan which is 5834 but i guess the swing high is on 12th feb-5874. Am I missing something. Is there any particular reason for picking up 5834.
Trying to learn.
Thx.
That bear market was a good time for me, Ilango. I was fresh in the market, I'd learnt only EW, and you and Jay were such wonderful, caring guides in this brave, new frontier.:)
All you had to do was short and sit on it.
I think we're heading into it again, but imo not just yet - maybe one more higher high away at 5800/5900 and then a crash. They'll sell hope to the weak bulls first and then reap despair. lol
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