My critic was cautioning this morning of holding longs, though the picture is yet to confirm a firm down by breaking below 5380(5-wk sma) & then 5350(Weekly channel)
For the short term: A close below 5415( daily channel) would put pressure.
Being in the settlement week, use the choppiness to exit part longs.
Trade your positions based on the daily levels.
For the short term: A close below 5415( daily channel) would put pressure.
Being in the settlement week, use the choppiness to exit part longs.
Trade your positions based on the daily levels.
111 comments:
PS : That's it. Among all of us, you and Yoda are two who give opinion not influenced by personal trade position.
Thank you.
my pleasure rg sir
ty RG, you're very sweet to say so.:) Though I try to take a balanced independent view, I know stating my bias is the only way to keep the record straight.:)
Ilangoji has given two probable scenarios EW-wise.
The first one is “Irregular b”.
Here Wave a = 71 points
Wave b = 96 points
Therefore, b has retraced about 135% of a and b is a Zigzag. This implies that Wave C will be an impulse which retraces all of Wave b.
So, the possibility of reaching at least the starting point of b, i.e. 5382 increases.
The second scenario is “Truncated 5th”.
In this case,
Wave 1 = 27 pts.
Wave 3 = 106 pts.
Wave 5 = 31 pts.
That means, 1 & 5 are almost identical in price (in time too).
Wave 3 is much more than 161.8% of 1.
These satisfy the price relationships of the waves.
Wave 5 failure can occur when the 5th itself is the wave 5 or wave C of the larger degree. Here, the larger degree is 5th. This implies that a significant top has been made and the larger 5th will also fail.
And last, but not the least, when there is a 5th wave failure observed, the time taken to breach the top of wave 5 again will be at least twice the time taken to form the entire previous impulse.
Now, which of these scenarios will come true, only time can tell. But Ilangoji can tell if I am making any mistakes. Fellow members can also help me in learning EW, pointing out any of my errors.
Among others Tata Global (ex Tata Tea?) looks vibrant. Took quite a beating recently and recovering. Does it call for TA attention? Looks enticingly priced.
hourly close above pivot now 5445
Fire,
Thanks... fr sharing ... I didnt know that 'when there is a 5th wave failure observed, the time taken to breach the top of wave 5 again will be at least twice the time taken to form the entire previous impulse.'
camarilla gives R4 @ 5440 and r5 @ 5460
In camarilla calculations r4 is considered a breakout
point.
If u observe the intra charts on nseindia... we have made
a HNS type of formation... n the mkt is making consistent attempt to breach the neckline
german consumer confidence rises strongly...good earnings by deutsche bank..europe rises
n now we broke it
Dear RG,
Did RBI announced any banking licenses to any of the
companies like IFCI, RELCAP, RELIGARE etc..?
Thanks,
Revathy.
booked 3 nifty 5400 calls @ 59
trailed sl for last position to 55
Sold NF @ 5447 SL 5458 Target 5410
bought nifty 5500 put(2 lots)@ 62
SL for puts 56 Target 80
shorts seem quite comfortable, its going to breakdown in the
afternoon
The bears have a lot in favour of them right now because during settlement week, volatility is inevitable and the vix is at its lowest ever.
Target for puts is 110
Day higg ema @ 5445 is resisting the upmove
prashant that means you are expecting nifty spot to come down to 5390???
sl in 5500 put moved to 54
world markets are all up 0.6 to 1%
sl triggerred in nf and nifty put
prashant at this juncture a fall is inevitable as daily charts are overbought
now almost Bn also overbought ready for a fall
i think now metal pack , which underperformed may provide support to nifty.
Markets will remain buoyant till end, enough shorts are in market to keep nifty afloat. See 5400 Ce price. It says all that.
they have sold almost 16L 5400 puts today... guess expiry between 5400/5500
Yellanti - sorry. But nothing mentioned - checked,since I don't watch TV much.
NS retraced exactly 61.8% retracement level of the last fall from 5477.5 to today's low of 5407.
@Neha,
You are welcome. We are fellow students. So sharing is the only way to create synergy.
@all
f&o turnover going strong - 80,000 cr.
cash - 9200 cr.
TA Table Updated
Unwinding in Calls
5200 - 353,600
5300 - 414,900
hm, I'm turning into a bear at this level. So unbelieveable how its shooting up.:)
Anil - cud it be hedge SHORTS in F&O against Cash Longs?
===
Hope Mr 2.30 takes off today - if he plays we may touch my barrier zone the "60s"
dear Ilango sir, in your post on EW you said in the end that you will elaborate on triangles later, but i could not find a post on triangles anywhere please help me.
I am preparing a cyclostyle of your notes for ready reference i need the triangles section if available to complete the EW portion.
Thanks in advance.
Thanks Fire
bought nifty 5500 put 3 lots @ 56
total open positions 4
Buy RIL 1040 put @ 4.60 and 1080 call @ 6.45.
tmrw we can get atleast profit of Rs.1500.
Nifty retuning from upeer channel line from prevois two top in last three days. This may indicate that it can crack down if not crossing 5451 in next 10 minutes.
OI Addition in 5200-5600 Strikes
Calls - (208,650)
Puts - 2581,650
Bear zone guarded
@Rajagopal
Volume seems ok considering expirt days, but put series in august right fron nifty to few large cap stocks showing good build up...
has the TITANIC started sinking? :-)
Hi IFCI watchers - is the goat ready ? Results over.
(no News from Mr Rao toady !!!)
i think til thrusday ,80% chance that market will trade with upward bias only as there is not much room below 5400 to go down. 5400 Puts Oi tells that.
strategy should be to buy on dips as it's 5380.
@RG,
I am one of the IFCI watchers. My trailing SL was hit on friday and after that I removed it from my screen lest I get provoked to enter once again. Perhaps the goat is ready. :) But technically, for positional traders like me, no sign of reversal. If manages to give a monthly closing at the current level, I am going to enter again. :D
getting support at the mini intra-breakout zone at
5435, below this.......?
5430 pivot point
Ilangoji,
The last upmove looked like an A-B-C move. Is it correct? What could be the counts now and what scenario are you preferring now?
dear sir, below 5427 5dma will we see 5380 levels in july series.
5430-35 has multiple monor supports,
below this 5413 hourly low ema and 5400 day low ema
daily 5ema is 5420, close above and below
5445 daily high ema this will keep both bulls and
bears interested.
Thanks Fire.
Sir & family..
GA..
All/RG/mok/rv
can anybody guide me if i can but debt instruments
on nse/bse or mutual funds are d only options..
or any other option which is open ended/tradeable
plz guide
read 'monor' as 'minor'
it needs to close below 5420 for bears to gain more
confidence
looks like we might have started tankin... wish SIR was here to guide us
booked 2 lots of 5400 put @74
trailed the remaining positions to 69
@RG,
What's your take on RIL? Technically dead. If you can see something resultwise...
nifty may retrace back and give a good shorting opp between 5450 to 5470, positional.
trailing stop also triggerred
no open positions now
This downmove on the other hand looks like subdivided in 5 waves. probably 4th going now. All in 5 minutes chart. Acutely feeling the absence of guidance of Ilangoji here.
Fire - Read that the results are the BEST in 10 qtrs !!!+lot of "Ambani Gas" on future. Momentory target of 1077 possible.
@ RG
RIl is only hope for nifty. As most of other bog boys has shown movements. Also tata steel can give some support. Any views on tata steel? stagnant today.
@RG,
Thanks a lot. Then I am going to sit tight as usual for RIL. As long as it stays in the range of 1045-1095, I am inactive.
reposting
can anybody guide me if i can but debt instruments
on nse/bse or mutual funds are d only options..
or any other option which is open ended/tradeable
plz guide
Hi Friends..
At What Time Today Reliance Release their Result?
WC - TISCO,UNITEC,TMF ... have a tendency to move in spurts at EOD. Let's watch TISCO today.
===
Fire - Ok.
Hi Manu - I don't know about it. But noted to check.
RG,Fire,
Since many days US/EUROPE closing in GREEN - do u see any chances of profit-booking today there? That will decide GAP UP/DOWN opening in ASIA/INDIA I guess.
@Rochak,
Et tu Brute? :o
sir, view for btst ot stbt
@Janak,
Perhaps Rg can tell better but in my opinion, for the last month I have seen no intermarket correlations working for Nifty. No international markets. Even USD-INR failed. So, I follow Ilangoji's advice and follow the technicals of the Indian market only.
Yes, I check US market at night, but the CME page showing NF. :D
Dear Janak - u feel I read "too much into things".(I remember BPCL - it touched 627 - on news).
Still...
Profit booking is part of the trade. But if you recall our upswing started before US/Europe. So who is first in the line? And Why not...it can happen in US/Eu - who tend to overlook bad news of late. President Obama declared the "Fiscal Deficit" will be more than 10% for the year. (Accepted level 3.25%). Dow doesn't care.
You will find Ilangos a rarity - the majority are called "Euphoria" and "Panic".
Fire No use.....................
Sir,
Till yesterday, the 5&13 day EMA was above the SMA, today both are lower than SMA.
hi dear rajgopal,
wahts abt sbi in result and ta ?
regards,
alpesh
one should take positions only after
a breakout above 5450 is confirmed
or we firmly break below 5400
till then one should trade this range by selling
near 5450 and buying near 5400
dear Fire, RG,
Thnx.....i agree with ur opinions.
Ilangoji,
Could it be the 3rd of A going on right now in the "Truncated 5th" scenario?
hi
dear sir ilangoji,
plz give some suugestion abt bank nifty ?
alpesh
Here is one FIRE who cannot be DOUSED by the WAVES. I visualise the lamps floating on Ganges and Cauvery.
Unwinding in Calls
5200 - 200,350
5300 - 397,100
5400 - 599,200
Is another leg of upmove pending?
@D.R.
If you are talking about CME Nf, you are absolutely right. But curiosity is my death when something related to the market comes.
@ilango sir ( and other experts ),
Long term view - short at these levels for Aug ? My reasons - daily chart shooting star, rising wedge, confirm today, potential DOJI forming today, S&P at channel highs and lots of resistance, earnings average and most stocks at 52-wk high. SHould we wait for wedge break and close below 5405 to start a trade ?
@RG,
YOU are going to be burnt by the fire, and unless you take a dip in the Waves, you can't save yourself!
:):):)
FIRE, i too check US Markets...:-)
Fire Et tu Brute? :o
this is the Indian market analysis by Rohit Srivastava of IndiaCharts.com
"An ending diagonal on the daily chart of the Sensex near 18300 is something to beware of. Such patterns are rare and once they form the highs are often not reached again for 1-2 years. So a sustained market below 18000 would confirm the pattern and its implications" posted on 26.7.2010.
I am not expert on elliot wave theory. Can you make me understand what exactly he wants to say.
@Market hypothesis,
Posted on 29th? Is this called "Insider Analysis"? Just kidding.
@all
interesting analysis by this guy...
Top of Jan 2010 Qtr = 17530
(1) Top of March 2010 Qtr 17793 =(Top of Jan 2010 + 1.5% = 17793)
(2) Top of June 2010 Qtr 18047 = (Top of March 2010 + 1.5% = 18059)
(3) Top of Sept 2010 Qtr 18317? = (Top of June 2010 + 1.5% = 18317)
If we believe the above statistic then we may have major resistance at 18317. Another
Interesting fact is market give tops in first month of Qtr and we are in first month of Qtr Sept.
2010.
View by Kiran Kotak (98700 81750)
Email - kotakkiran@yahoo.com
I wish i cud understand the TA of EW like u....:-( somehow not able to get the head or tail of it...
EMA 3 - 5425
EMA 5 - 5418
EMA 8 - 5405
Nifty Closing above EMA 5 seems?
IDEA 38% buy in last 20 mins. (of the day)
I am asking to illango. Need not to be hurry.
Please reply after in depth study.
Nifty closing leaves one a lil unsure about both longs n shorts ... I think...tomo shud be a downday overall.. lets see
Bye Sir. Bye Friends.
@Market Hypothesis,
No offense. In this forum we sometimes have a little banter to keep the market tension in check. Any way, my apologies if you took it otherwise.
@ Neha
Nifty may attempt 5450 to 5470 intraday to complete (B), then down 3rd of (C)
@Neha,
Hope so. The negative divergences in the daily chart are very prominent now.
As per Ilango sir, 5415 still is crucial, almost decisive.
This is going to be a rocky settlement.:) I wish I had the selfcontrol not to trade these last 2 days but the excitement gets me.
@Janak,
USD-INR had a surprising fall today, about 40 paise till now. Previously it would result in a nice rally in the equities. But now? Nothing.
Huge-Huge turnover today
Nse cash 13348
Bse cash 3991
Nse FNO 114406
Total 131745 Cr.
very soon
we will see black friday
if month end above 5450
still berish has upperhand
as nifty close below 5454
Dear Ilango,
The total O.I.for NF Aug.Series at 3.30 PM is 1,51,90,400 Cr.Today roughly almost 60 lac NF positions were rolled over in NF August series.The interesting thing which is noticeable here that 57% of the total rollover for this series is from yesterday and today only and it is between 5425 to 5466 i.e. in just 41 points and as per my observation this is the main reason that market is reluctant to go down from here.So let the entire development be completed for best results.Till then still anybody's game either B or B.
Its so interesting... during the day I posted.. that they had sold
16L 5400 puts... n at EOD wen u see they have bought bac some
nearly 9L puts... very interesting... thats how much of a swing
happening in big moneys minds too!!!!
@FIRE
[ FIRE said...
@Rochak,
Et tu Brute? :o
July 27, 2010 3:12 PM ]
sorry, i missed this. & i am dumb enough to understand this. please elaborate.
thanks
regards
hello all
i think markets are at their intermediate & short to medium terms top.
Nifty is Still sustaining higher levels and still towards 5500.
what you think about it Ilango Sir??
rg sir
for idea, there r multiple divergences and stock is ob
but real weakness will come below 67. 72 shud be sl
for shorts
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