Hourly low ema "4077" was the critical support when broken, flood gates were open. Now, the weekly has confirmed a down momentum. There was an attemt to close above the 5day low ema @ 4119 but failed.
After the channel break as well as the neckline break, the pullback materialised as a downward sloping correction. Watch the macd moving back into +ve prior to budget day, indicating the "2nd wave" completion.
For Holding positions, this is the best..For "Investments" too, this has been tested by my "critic" to be very effective.
Hourly macd turns down again in the -ve zone. Two possible targets are discussed.
After a three day pause, downward momentum increases.."Running down correction" indicates serious selling pressure.
7 comments:
Dear ilango,
Isn't it a bit late now to go short now if one doesn't have shorts at the upper level ??
Yours views will be highly appreciated.
sajal
Hi..Sajal,
The weekly, daily & hourly charts are posted with relevant comments on daily comments.Even the daily intra movements are posted with arrows showing the likely intra directions.
For eg: Yesterdays intra likelihood pointed to a resistance at higher level & reversal..but the magnitude was not shown as exact timing of the fall was not ascertained. Also the "4075" as a crucial decider was mentioned along with "Major falls below "4040" was mentioned on the chart in bold letters. If one has not initiated "shorts" at the appropriate time, holding shorts that is going to be created at lower levels will cause anxiety when intra bounces happens.
What is visible in the price charts are narrated as the price unfolds. It is unfolding its bearishness with each passing day with weekly also confirming the downtrend. Till then staying with "shorts" with appropriate SL (Like 5 day high or the last wave or pivot point, etc).
Finally to your question: If market opens "gap down", initiate shorts only after an intra bounce..If none happens, bad luck. Chasing prices is highly risky. Till ths trend in atleast daily turns up, one should look for "selling trades" only. At 3933, this second fall will equal the first fall from 4693-4146. And that is an area to see if there is going to be any rally.
As "Jesse Livermoore" said, only the patient one who can sit through will come out a winner. Incidentally, Jesse lost all his money when his shorts had to be closed when the market did an irregular "B" wave up which went past the previous high and then came down big time.If he had held on, that would have been the richest haul.
What I do during the mkt time is to keep these "flag posts" of numbers that are critical to reverse the trades, reaffirm in holding a trade, close a trade , etc. So break of 4075, 4040 reaffirmed in holding those positional trades.
Questions...ahh..they bring out so much of our thoughts. Thank you.
Best regards.
ilango
Ilango Sir,
Thanks for your excellent analysis.
Sir, I have a request, please post your latest views on Elliot Waves Position of Nifty, particularly whether Nifty has started big C wave down or 4th wave down?
Thanks and Regards.
ttthakur
Dear Ilango,
Many... many... thanks for such a nice reply.
You are one of the greatest souls that I have met in my 'cyberspace'. Which dares me to extend the conversation a bit further.
You may have known that from the next day closing of the budget day sell-off I was bearish and confident that 4150 is to go now and minimum 3900 or 3950 is on the cards.So without finding long trades one should look at short oppourtunities.Even I have commented in your threads in VFM in this regard.
People may brush aside me you are a 'gut-feel trader' and you just clicked on fluke.TA was not showing such bearishness. Yet I have my own logic which is based on economics,market psychology,market dynamics and overall my long years in the markets.
Now.. my humble question to you - Is TA alone enough for trading and surviving in the stock market ??? If it doesn't bother you too much Your wise thoughts in this domain will really enrich my thought-process.
Sorry for this long comment. yes, so true.. questions and thoughts.. but that is the only way to enrich ourselves.
warm regards,
sajal
Hi..ttthakur,
In my weekly chart, I have posted an EW count that Major "A" of the Primary "B" wave has ended and we are in the Major "B" of the Primary "B" to be followed by major "C" of the primary "B". On completion of that "Primary "B", we will start the Primary "C" down.
Alternative view: We have completed the Primary "B" at 4693 and we have commenced the Primary "C" down.
In both cases the direction is down. That is all what matters now. Combine it with TA, it gets better.
You can also label it as a "4th wave down" as long as it stays above 3511.25.
Best regards.
ilango
Hi Sajal,
Yes, there are many "Gut feel traders" and I know some too. They are just wonderful and fascinating too. While I work hard to find some answers, they simply have one and throw it at you..Amazing intuition.
One can earn riches in the stock market with any of the systems..No second opinion on that. The "hurdle" comes in the form of "self" only. One is one's own enemy. Humanity's biggest weakness is "self doubt". Animals don't have it. God has given this "Consciousness" to mankind and he has chosen to bring mostly misery to himself.
If you are a TA follower, one of the most basic factor to be taken into account before trading is whether the market is trading above it's short term average/ Ema and stay in that direction no matter what happens in the outside world.Be it budget, election event, impending terrorist threat, etc, etc. Markets discount everything and shows it in the averages.
We have done research on it and use it to our advantage. The day before Sitaram Kesari(Congress President) pulled down Deve Gowda's Govt, Nifty closed below 5 day average and I was heavily short and the next day event was not anticipated by me. More recently, Prior to the Election results were out, Nifty closed above 5 day average comfortably and Black Swan followed next day.
The most important factor is to follow these diligently with great discipline and not get distracted by too many oscillators and news.
The slow macd(12,26,9) is really a good one for positional traders. Let some do a study on it. My critic had done a research on it and follows it strictly for positional trades. I can provide some 5-7 years data with colour format to show it's efficacy.
Robert Prechter says of EW practioners...the ones with military backgrounds have won the EW competition including himself as it requires discipline and a daring action based on the inputs.
There will be some 10% or a little more failures in any method. If we can win 8 out of 10 trades with an equal money management, we are way above the rest in the long run. We need to keep reaffirming this truth to ourselves everyday like a prayer.
Lastly, If someone were to ask you, "What will be the market be like on Monday ?" and what would be your responsible & honest answer, then that is what you are going to do on Monday or for whichever time frame the question was raised..If we can do it daily, we will be responsible traders and successful ones too.
Best regards.
ilango
Thanks, ilango, I owe you a lot for such a nice explanation.
So true, TA or no TA,you have to kill your enemy and when the 'enemy lies within you' it is the hardest battle of all battles.
I will seek your shelter again when I need and I will feel proud if I could help you in any matter.
With highest of regards,
sajal
Post a Comment