Identifying the start of a down move and ending of the same is relatively easier with the help of divergences and completion of elliott waves. And so it was possible to pinpoint a selling point for Monday. However, figuring out the likely moves during the corrective phase quite unpredictable as correctives take all kinds of choppy moves.
Looking at the world mkts recovery from the lows, it is quite clear that yesterdays moves below 4450 was excessively done and hence we are likely to open around those levels.
A 5 wave move was completed in yesterday's lows and a counter trend move of (abc) with either 5-3-5 or 3-3-5 is likely to develop. Two immediate resistances will be 4482(Pivot point) and 4496(5-day ema) above which 4518-4525 the area which gave supports during yesterday's down moves. All these resistances may not me met in one go as we are likely to see two way moves. Conservatively, I can put todays range as 4440 to 4530, provided the opening is a gap up.The range for a gap down would be 4350-4385 to 4450-4495.(Added @ 9.20AM)
The retracements for the fall from 4637 to 4404 are:-
38% @ 4492 (Close to the 54-day ema)
50% @ 4520 (1, 2 3rd June close & Monday's intra supports)
61.82% @ 4548 (The mean of 4450-4637 range move).
In sum, a gap up and a possible 1st resistance @ 4485-4495 area, followed by a choppy moves in a range of 4455-4495 and a rally again to 4515-4545 area.If Asian mkts are weak, lower lows @ 4385-4350 are also possible
As weekly is still in uptrend, markets can still try to hit a new high in the next few days. However, selling in individual stocks with volumes keep this option as a second alternative only.The preferred view is that Nifty to move in a range of 4405 to 4545 for a day or two and then head lower towards 4100(Approximately)
1 comment:
Thanks a million sir.
Actually i was in long yesterday cos of oversold market and ur weekly ema protected.
Your post gave me hope and waited patiently and booked littile profit.
Thank & regards
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