Nifty Breaks out..

These are the Monthly, Weekly, Daily & 5-Minute charts of Nifty to understand the various time cycles acting at the same time.Nifty seems to have completed a ABC Correction (6357 - 4448 (A)., 4448-5550-4468-5255(B)., 5255 - 3790 (C)., & corresponds with positive divergences , points towards a medium term bottom being made at 3790. The 5 wave upmove from 920 (Year.2002) to 6357 (Year-Jan.2008) cannot be corrected in say 6 months time. So an upward correction to this just concluded downward correction is unfolding now. "B" waves are sucker waves..LET US REMEMBER THAT.During this upmove, the journey is expected to be very bumpy making people to change their mind frequently. Like Manoj said " a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"...and thats how it will be.Once the "B" upmove is over, we should turn southwards to complete the dreaded "C" wave.
For the coming week, we may have a correction towards 4000 to 3985 area as the hourly is in overbought area, which will be aided by Delhi Durbar.Buy into this corrections as anything below this week's close should become profitable by weekend.

Nifty's Day Out

At last our Market will see the sun today!

We should steadily inch upwards with periodic corrections on the way. As I see it, the hourly has logged into uptrend and the daily also closed above 3943 (The 5 DMA).So let us keep reminding to ourselves " BUY ON EVERY DECLINES" till the weakness is seen in larger time frames such as weekly & daily.Immediate resistance levels are 4014 & 4085.Last week's close of 4049 will offer a pause to gather steam ( as at that level Nifty would have travelled 260 points).Incase for any local events market stalls without clearing 4014, a fall cannot be ruled out.At this juncture 3885 is a main support.If 4014 is scaled, then 3940 will become a support.

As observed a day earlier, it still looks like we are in the 4th wave up from the level of 4215 (1 = 4215 to 4014; 2 = 4014 - 4117; 3 = 4117 - 3790; 4 = 3790 - is still on..)only a move above 4117 will change the setup. Or else, we should make a new low to end the 5 wave down..

Nifty Tired?

Nifty nearly touched the 3rd wave target levels at 3776(Touched 3790).A positive divergence has developed in daily, hourly & 5-Minute charts. Now the price has to confirm the reversal(Which it will oblige with world mkts' help). However, only a move above 4015 & 4117 will confirm a decisive reversal lasting few weeks. Failure to reach these levels will result in one last down (As during positive divergences new lows are made trapping bears).When EW is not clear or having many possibilities, just take refugee in technicals and tech says " I am quite oversold..Can't take this selling beyond a couple of days!"

Nifty for a Week

We have seen a 1st wave dn from 4215 to 4004 (211 points) and a clear ABC up to 4117 and the 3rd has started down. Should fall more than 211 points (1.618 times 211 = 341 points..targetting 3776).This is just one possibility. The fall can be 1.38 or 2 or 2.618 times also. Subsequent to this 3rd down(Preferably at around 3776), we should have a 4th wave trading sideways/ violent up (without touching the 1st wave bottom 4004), head lower towards further lows to complete this 5th wave. This view seems reasonable with daily technicals showing weakness till Fri/ Mon.I would like to review the price action day by day as so much changes with volatality.

S&P 500 is expected to bottom around 1170(trading now at 1219 after making a low of 1200)which is a fall of 2 to 3 % from here.Oil has started to show some down moves..If we see some positive divergences in the daily charts, we may be near a temperory bottom.

Nifty Ahead..

Nifty has been in downtrend Since 6357 top. After a first fall(A wave), it underwent a time correction without a significant upmove (Weakness ahead) and the larger time scales such as Monthly turned down convincingly and thus paved the way for the "C" wave(Dreaded). We have been trending down in this way from 5255 with periodic corrections lasting 3 to 5 days only. Bottom is seldom made with rising channel. This kind of correction is generally associated with the pause (Correction) in the continuation of the trend(Down here).The falls are sharp but the corrections are slow and laborious.Break of 4004 would lead us to new lows.I like to add here 5 D of Daily Stochastics have given immense help in showing the direction of the short term trend and it has turned down since Fri close. So mkt should be down till Thu or Fri (Minimum).As per EW, we have seen a 1st wave dn from 4215 to 4004 (211 points) and a clear ABC up to 4117 and the 3rd has started down. Should fall more than 211 points (1.618 times 211 = 341 points..targetting 3776).