Contracting triangle would have each fall reducing in magnitude.
5630 to 5171=459 points
5499 to 5136=363 points(79% of 459)
5379 minus (79% of 363=287)=5092-Mth JNSAR.
Falling below month's JNSAR should ring in the first alarm bells though "exceeding the earlier fall would mean (5379-363=5016) breach of 5015.
"5077" a critical low made during the 4531 to 5630 may be considered as a major trigger for downsides.
22 comments:
Ilango Sir,
Raising alarm before it could it happen.
Posting as usual are great.Thanks a lot
today big gap down opening killed the bulls. Now all bears.
Tomorrow big gap up opening may kill the bears.
Given the ground reality, gap up opening is a theoretical possibility. Only unexpected liquidity or big hands' plans to trap small players can result in gap up open. Markets will tell us tomorrow.
US has been DOWNGRADED by Egan Jones from AA+ to AA with -ve outlook. This agency is usually ahead of other credit rating agencies. S&P is also likely to downgrade US again. So, we all have to remember this in coming sessions.
Recent auction of bonds by RBI was not successful as buyers expected more interest. This might prompt RBI to reduce either repo rates or CRR. That is the only hope now.
I don't expect much from Infy guidance.
Hi channasri, could you please share the source of this news. please share the website link here, as i have not seen any such news of US downgrade today
@Ilango
sir
instead of 5459 it would be 5499, so 5499-5136=363 and 70% of that comes 254.1 so 5379-254=5125. so more than that break the contracting triangle. if wrong pardon me. thanks.
Dear K7,
It's 3 days ago news..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-05/egan-jones-cuts-u-s-rating-one-step-to-aa-citing-growing-debt.html
NEWS dont matter ...liquidity does.....its all mathematics, geometry , cycles, crowd behaviour ....if news mattered, Markets wont be touching those trend lines so perfectly
thanks mynac for sharing the link.
@jonak,
I appreciate your views. Liquidity is very imp. However, let's not forget crucial events such as US downgrade by S&P that resulted in loss of AAA status, Lehman brothers collapse, recent RBI decision to cut CRR by 75 gps ahead of policy decision schedule and many more.
As I have understood, liquidity cannot change ground reality. While following the markets, we have to keep an ear to the ground.
Finally, markets are supreme.
@mynac,
Thanks for sharing the link ahead of me. Let's help each other with this kind of team spirit.
Namaste Ilango Sir & Blogmates,
Nifty closed weak with Call Writers making merry, but the volumes are still very low; Option Analysis for 09-04-2012
Duplicated at Wordpress Site
Thanks & Regards,
Sanjay Kr Jaiswal
amnpatel,
As instead of 5459 it would be 5499,
so 5499-5136=363 which is 79% of 459 thus
79 % of 363= 287
so 5379-287=5092.
Illango sir,
if wrong pardon me. thanks.
illango ji,
CT Arm labled "d" does not have 3 sub-fracs!
Valid as CT ??? :-(
@ anmpatel, dinesh,
You both are correct. Error rectified.
Month JNSAR-5092 becomes crucial accordingly.
@ Shriram,
A 5 wave could easily be relabelled as an "abc".
Show me a "5" and I'll show you an "abc".
I never get into such nitty gritties but the spirit of the patterns and their timings.
I want to tell you this:
Please continue your search..follow your passion. I did and my journey is done. My grey cells have done enough work to deter "Parkinson" setting in anytime.
Let this search be done independent of your trading strategies. Let them not influence your trades while they are in an "incubatory status".
You have an excellent grasp on the "Mathematics" of the prices. Just balance it against your youthful exuberance.
My best wishes to you.
Your sharing is well appreciated and gratefully acknowledged.
Dear channasri,
:)
Don’t have an idea whether the news has “hidden” potential to throw cold water on worldwide Bull’s plan or not? Let us see….the time shall tell us…
IF tomorrow gap down then most chances of bounce
back.
Hi mynac....observed the vanishing of 15 lac OI in the bhav (leaving 4 lac cut overall for the day !)??
your views plz ?
Ilango sir, heartful thanks for being there for all of us !!
kindest regards
Illango ji,
Sincere thanks. JN has been the guiding light!
Just wish I had paid more attention to ur blog 1 yr earlier :-)
Did u go thru Ehler's algos sir? pls do see them in ur free time, it will make for gr8 reading ..
that man is amazing !
urs
Hi mynac,
ECB already declared that recent one was the last easing. US FED post poned QE3. Spain is a bigger threat than Greece. So, liquidity is not going to be easy.
I'm seeing sliding US capital markets in TV right now.
Surely, time will tell.
......market is preparing itself for a big upsurge in volume as the chart pattern gets completed only with high volume breakout!
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