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| Nifty continues to trade within the large trading band of 5360/5375 to 5475/5490. With only 7 trading days left in this August series, this month could end as a "Pause" month unless one of the barriers are broken decisively. Trade - as in today's market, the selling level came in the first 30-45 minutes and one of the supports came at the last hour with a total spread of 36 points. If you did not do well today, you are excused to blame the market. Once you understand that a trading band is on, play the band. Patience pays. |
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| Nifty kept below JN.SAR @ 5444 and found support @ 5408-DLema. Time correction has made it possible for 5ema to rise above 5sma. "5385" continues to be crucial support(now S2) |
12 comments:
intoduction of sar looks very useful.
so once ilango ji you have given the day when traders could blame the market for their losses....regards
There is H-S pattern in the making, and the neck in the area of 5380-85, which has been support for quite sometime.Additional observation on last four days candlesticks provides a clear view of ARROW Pattern (This includes inside Doji as well), which is considered as reversal sign.On Elliotwave charts (last 18 months), we have completed 5 waves of last "c" of "C".We are seeing negative diversion for last 20-30 days on chart.It seems we me take sharp and swift down fall within next three days. I am coming out of my long term investments.
ilango ji has the time come to come out of one's long time investments as said by rajvada. your considered views on this would benefit so many people. the whole situation is very confusing as on the one hand there are those talking of market going to make new highs and then come people like rajvada who refering to ew say quit the market. the layman is highly confused, what do you say ?
Dear Rajiv,
I am not an expert on EW. I am learning from this blog. Whatever I have learnt and supported by my intution, decided to quit my long term holdings. I may be wrong. Mostly markets fall when everyone talks of higher levels, more specifically the TV Channels. Whether this is true or not would be decided very soon. S&P today is strugling to cross 1089.41 (34 MA). Let us see ...
Rajvada,
If you're basing it on the Dow or S&P, look again - they're sailing +ve today.
Don't quit long-term holdings on the basis of being contra to tv channels - they're occasionally right.:)
Yoda,
I have given the rationale for my getting out of long holdings. It is not only on one factor( TV Chanels). Today I sold 25%. In next three days 25% each. The TV channels have been quite right so far, but occasionally they are wrong, and that is the peak !!!
Sir,
Good evening.
Quote : Once you understand that a trading band is on, play the band. Patience pays.
Thanks for the above. Nifty is locked with "Dindigul Lock" with tight range 5360/5480 band. Inbetween trading is depends upon the person's knowledge and fast trading skills.
My view is(shocked sir??!!) "expecting downtrend after 2nd week of september" with here and there difference in days. All are expressing their predictions, hence me too joined as i got time now :) please excuse me sir.
@ Yoda - You are right. Dow is in OS levels in daily charts. No wonder in bounce.
Rajvada,
Two years ago, spurred on by a fascination for EW and Prechter I made the same decision. I don't think it was a good one, now in retrospect. Markets far from falling into bearish hell have bounced very well indeed. EW may be right in very, very large time cycles which may run into decades, since time is the hardest to predict using EW.
Just some friendly advice to have patience and dissolve your holdings over a longer time frame - maybe 10% every month, but not in days.:)
@Sujatha,
Sept was when the last crash happened too, wasn't it? good prediction.:)
Dear Rajvada,
"I have learnt and supported by my intution, decided to quit my long term holdings."
I respect your views.
Layman’s Second thought: FII are net buyers particularly between 5370-5490 and NF 50 DMA is approx +_5340 today. At present the 200 DMA is far away. In few days 50 DMA will come closer to 5370, from where FII started their serious buying where DII were & are net sellers. The tussle bet. Buyer & Sellers used to get reflected in price and its movement is the market rule. It’s obvious that both parties will try to dictate market. At present in spite of conditions/clues whatever they were/are FII are in driver's seat.
Greed and Fear are the two enemies for trader/investor.
As a layman, for this series, I am not too ambitious but still can expect 5490 + 1%(at least) = 5545, as well as I am hoping support at 50DMA at least for this expiry because at present the 200 DMA is still far away.
Market is supreme so let it decide its journey.
Yoda & Mynac,
May be you are right on the idea of 10% on a gradual rate. This time once again This Pretcher has given interim report (10th Aug-10) for market going down in near term in a big way. I got this from one of my friends. Moreover this Hindenburg omen talks, Astro Pundits predictions are pointing towards market down turn/ reversal. Lots of conflicting views!! Moreover the market is in a narrow range of 4600-5500 for more than 12 months. It needs to break out on either side by sept./ Oct if not in Aug. Which side it will break out? a big question. Eyes areseein up side and heart is saying down side. On top of it the actual economic scenario is not as good as it looks. This India de-couple story due to internal consumption bla..bla.. is also not convincing. Then why we fell 65% in 2008 ! This is one of the most challenging times regarding market direction I have seen since 1991. In any case I remain NOW in bear camp.
Thanks For Sharing Your Views. I hope so..
Option Chain
Ce : Max. addition in, 5400, 5500 and 5600 in this order. (Highest OI remains 5600,5500,5400 in this order.) Is there a shift towards a lower close ?
Pe : Max. addition in, 5200, 5300 and 5400 in this order. (Highest OI remains 5300,5400,5200 in this order.) Is there a shift towards a lower close ?
Option Chain expiry 5300-5500 ; within which bias towards 5300-5400.
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