Thanks a lot, Saurabh Moond for bring it to us..)
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Predicting the market is a waste of time; and here's why.
Market is market and it will do what it has to do. It does not care about anyone.. Most of the people predicting about the market are only engaged in educated guesses.
I can also indulge in guesswork but the fact is - I don't "know" what markets are going to do in the future. Some may ask, How can you be in this business and not know what markets are going to do?
Well, trust me trading business has nothing to do with prediction. It is more a skill on how to navigate markets than knowing the map of the market.
Plan Actions and Visualize Scenarios:
Let me start with a great quote from George Soros - The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.
The action approach should be - Don't think about what the market's going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Instead, think about what you're going to do if market does anything what you have envisaged or visualized.
What every traders needs to understand?
1.. There is a huge difference between trading correctly and making an accurate market prediction.
2.. In the final analysis, predicting the market is not what's important. What is important is using sound trading practices.
3.. And if sound trading habits are all that is important, there is no reason to try to predict the markets in the first place.
4.. It is the discipline that keeps one in the market for long timeand not the forecast ability.
When one predicts - one searches for that market behavior; and if market starts behaving otherwise - one gets angry and start fighting the market. That's why - one should have an open mindset towards market behavior and not trapped in prism of one's prediction.
There is a famous saying which also sums up the attitude one should have towards the market - I have no idea what the market will do, but that is ok and I will play whatever comes my way.
56 comments:
good morning sir and readers
Good Morning Illango Sir,& all blogmates
I finally have been getting my paper trades correct.
Why am not playing the real market now ? Frustrating.
Thanks ilango sir for your calls. Amazing accuracy.
gd
Good Morning sir and friends,
Credit for the above article should be given to Deepak Singh of State of the Market.
He has posted the same on his site.
Good Morning all.
Good Morning Ilango sir.
The above article looks like contents of "State of Market" blog - Mr. Deepak Singh.
Thanks onceagain for posting here at the right time.
Regards
GM to Sir and friends !!
regards
GM all! Last evening comments were enriching as well,thanks to all participants!
Sir,
I am a silent reader of your blog but unfortumately i have one nifty long @5225 and one suzlon Long @ 69.25 what should be my strategy to escape with minimum loss please guide
Thanks & Regards
Good morning Ilango Sir and all blog mates
Hai ilango sir and others
see the effect of hourly triangle break out. I am posting
the charts here.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-triangle-in-hourly-chart.html
thank you
ilango sir,
I am short in BN positionally? At what level I should
cover my shorts?
-arpit
Hello friends,
Some observations:
1.Nifty broke 50EMA at 5198 and heading towards 100EMA at 5102 and 120EMA at 5060.
2.Triangle Break down target is 5025/40
3.50% retracement of rise from 4675 to 5400 is at 5040
In the past whenever we broke the trendline support, starting from March09 lows, we have retraced approx 23.6% from the recent highs.
1. 2540 to 5182 = 2642 points*23.6% = 623... 5182-623 = 4560
Low made 4540
2. 2540 to 5311 = 2771 points*23.6%= 654... 5311-654 = 4657
Low made 4675
Will it follows this time also
3. 2540 to 5400 = 2860 points*23.6% = 675... 5400-675 = 4725???
Thanks
see the chart here
http://tradingontechnicals.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-view-05-may-2010.html
Good Morning Sir and Friends.
DIIs have sold around 240 Crores against FIIs who sold only 38 Crores y'day. Read that FIIs are hedging cash longs with derivative shorts. Their logic is that this trend will reverse soon. But perceptions change per second here. What will happen if FIIs start encashing?
===
Techno-Fundamental input:
Bajaj Hind and Balrampur have become OS - but so are almost all.
Balchini is inching towards 52Week Low and Bajhind is 10-15 points away. Sugar prices have come down from their high of Rs 50 to cmp of Rs 29 which is below their COP of Rs 35. The prices have moved up by Rs 200 per quintel based on the expected import duty levy. Section of the lobby is exerting pressure on Govt to bring in 30% import duty - which will make it infeasible to import sugar. (Courtesy ET). US sugar prices have nosedived on expectation of excess-production/export potential of India. Better to wait if stuck in Longs to average at real lows.
Conclusion : ATGUMCD.
Conclusion (corollary) : ATCDMGU
Hi Amit.. break of 4900 will lead to 4650..
looks doubtful - I see more of an upside opening up nxt week
Hi Mr. Illango & blog mates,
There is huge action going on in 5300 CE & 5200 CE where as we are @ 5070 {nifty spot}, so could you plez enlighten me in this regard….
Thanx in advance….
Sirisha,
Hyd
Hi Ilango,
Should we book profits in conservative shorts?
Thanks
Gnana
Ilango Sir,
I booked my conservative shorts at 5060 NF (as per pre market view table). Can I hold it with Stop loss 5050 NS?
Thank you
@Illango Sir & other blog mates
Hats off for great anaylysis.....covered shorts @5060.....can we enter intra long keeping stop @5035 for tgt 5120?
Az: Friend I couldn't trace your id in my mail list. Kindly send me a test mail - I will forward the same to Moh.
===
Ilango - There was a new visitor to the EOD post-My wife. She felt that you are using a synonym to describe your better half. Wife/Critic it has to be Wife=Critic. Isn't it what Wife is for? (Behind every successful man stands a woman, telling him he is WRONG).
Good Day.
US market falling down ,falling down ,falling down ,US market falling down my fair lady
build it up with Bail out,Bail out,Bail out,build it up with Bail out my fair lady
DEAR RG, THANKS FOR UR UPDATION IN SUGAR
Rajagopal sir,
YESTERDAY YOU HAVE MENTIONED ABOUT STBT
ITS ALL ROCKINGSIR
Sir ji, you're STBT calls again perfect
ttagada pissa kamaya, thanks!
Good Morning everybody,
rg sir,
behind every unsuccessful man there is a woman also.
sir
is part booking, intra long advisable everything o/s
bears cant have it so easy
Yes GB, I agree.
I don't mean to sound bearish but the observation was to get the feeling of Worst Scenario.
and to see that till what level I can hold my cash stocks.
200 EMA is at 4875 which should hold.
Hi GB - today is 05.05 - your target on course? And what are doing up at 3.45am mate? You also have Dear Anuj like hangover?
Funny Boasting - Shorts Target achieved as per Tech Table. (treat it as a joke).
PS :"behind every unsuccessful man there is a woman also"
Life TA will show that the man did not listen to the woman.
(you recollect our Ramnavami exchange).
Happy Trading to you.
Dear Ilango,
If I am Short then I must be careful if Nifty shall start to trade above 5070 considering the current 5053 low.Am I correct? Pl. throw some light.
Hai everyone
Nifty month chart shows a possible support at 4990-5000
area.
I am posting the charts here
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-month-chart-shows-support-at-5000.html
thank you
rg sir,
i dont agree
but trading is more important now. some other day
Rajgopal :) lol i have not slept all night.. was fixing my blog
now that its fixed i can sleep peacefully hehe
Yes - we are as per schedule - 2 more days - sideways n then up up up!!
A corrective bounce may be underway towards the gap area...may not fill the gap..
ORB 5053 to 5082.
We are at the target zone. Part booking and then resell higher.
Dear Ilango,
Thanks.
Ilango Sir,
Is resell level 5120/5135? or any changes?
Thank you
hello ilango
pls open price
tsrini74
Sir where to
Resell Plz mention so that we can ride train again
If you can predict what will happen to copper then you can guess what will happen to the dow check this out
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJUBHGTR&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=%5Edji,%5EDJI
Sudhin
@ tsrini74,
Open: 5082.15
some call unwinding or rather profit booking seems to be going on in 5300/5400/5500 calls..
Reselling could be in the range of 5095-5105.
GB:
"Yes - we are as per schedule - 2 more days - sideways n then up up up!!"
Sorry for being a dud. Do we touch -5000 before up,up,up? I am holding some SHORTS.
Do I exit or expect?
@ gautam
it seems to be going ur way, by observing positions on put side..seems to building at every levels while going down..
so matching ur view of ' after 7th its up. up .up....'
Combine the selling time with intraday RT chart - Overbought area.
Dear Ilango/Blogmates,
Thanks. Bye.Shall try to join in the latter half.
GM Ilango sir, the ORB u gave is NF or NS??
Thanks
Ilango sir,
Can you please advise whether tata steel can be bought now with a horizon of 10 to 15 days.
regards
@ Rajagopal,
A positive divergence might develop if after this bounce, Nifty makes one more low causing "panic" around 4980-5010 zone. That is a level to go long with a risk of a SL @ 4950.
Great Sir. The Oracle is loud and clear. Holding my Short - remember my April Mischief? Same one.
Thank you.
NEW POST DONE
Rajgopal - yes you can cover ur short.
better to remain on sidelines now
If you want, cover 50% and hold the rest with a SL of 5125 (3 ema low) closing
Risky in my opinion.
Profit booking is advised.
when cnbc -(buisness cartoon net work) technical
ppl sayes to short.......
means one can go long........
fii is still bullish on indian market
we dont know when they will agian blast........
one can make long position in aban...at evry dip
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