Saturday, April 11, 2009

McDowell-N - Risk Reward High to go long now..!!



7 comments:

cdmoorthy said...

Hi - Good morning. I am giving some levels to watch on Mcdowell -- I am just testing.. donot trade on this... I doing some kind of research on price movement behaviour, which needs to be tested for some more long time. So i am posting here in this public domain. I trust you would not mind it.

52 week high 2190 - Last close 706.5 - EMA 20 on weekly chart 733.4.

As per my reserch data - the stock closed above 699.60 and the next resistance 730. This 730 is the end of the trajectory path and above it will move into the next level - which starts from 736.2 So in between 730 - 736.2 there is a vaccum or no man's land where the weekly EMA20 is there - that is 733.4. So if the stock closes above 736.2 on Monday, I would love to go long with a stop loss of 730 on closing basis.

The trajectory which starts from 736.2 will end at 1022... and the other next one will start from 1028.10 and end at 1363.

Each trajectory is having 8 validation / resistance or support levels to watch out for. For example the trajectory starts from 736.2 to 1022 is having 8 checking points..Which need to be validated / crossed successfully to move into the next one.

Let me see how will it work.

The same way for nifty - at the present trajectory path which starts from 2985 - will end at 3956. As for as the important 8 checking points we closed above 3338 and next resistance comes at 3461 - 3585 - 3709 - 3832 - and the final at 3956. If nifty closes above 3956 consistently for at least 3 or 4 days along with weekly close above that.. it will move into the next trajectory 3974 - 5086.

Ilango ji, i took privilege to post this and trust you would not mind it. Take this as a child posting its elementary studies on market price behavior with some kind of enthusiasm. that it..

Note: Please take the above levels only for education and testing purpose and donot trade based on the above.

Happy TAMIL new year.
Regards

cdmoorthy said...

One more important point on Mcdowell-n.
The following informations gathered from Weekly charts - (thanks i charts)

The daily close 706 is well above the TMA 20 which is 695. I use this as a trend setter. So short term trend is up.

However, I wish the 5 ema should cross 20 ema upwards to confirm such short term UP trend. This is because many time during last one year, the closing crossed above TMA, but always 5 ema failed to cross 20ema on weekly charts.

During Feb 08, 5 ema crossed down 20 ema - and still is below 20 ema.

Therefore, i wish 5 ema to cross upwards 20 ema firmly during this week.

Ilango said...

hi...

You have beautifully clothed the pictures with your researched words..!!

I truly appreciate your valuable inputs on this subject.

You are always welcome and Thanks.

ilango

Ushashankar (கண்மணி) said...

Sir, Ilangoji, excellent, I am also a vfm member (ushank84) and my mail id ushank84@hotmail.com,Sir from the charts what you feel about Mcdowell, will you please explain?thanks for sweety for nice explanation, Shankar

Saif said...

what about the fundamental valuations...is it justified for nifty to even cross 3800...based on earnings the max nifty cld be capped there...i guess we need a mix of TA and fund to trade this diff period,

Ilango said...

Hi..Shankar & Shaq,

Our markets are attempting to reverse the downtrend of 15 months old after showing double & triple bottoms. What we do at such junctures is just "Buy" as the risk - reward favours going long.
There will be rotational buying in stocks. So search the horizon and find some trading ranges with volume to support.
McDowell after a sustained fall has attracted good volumes and presently trying to break a trading range of 650 to 715. Indications of break out possibility is high looking at the oscillators. Price is supreme and the plan of action is quite clearly detailed out by "Sweety".
In downtrend, market breaks through each support till it does some bottoming formations. Similarly, in uptrend too, it will break through each resistances till it does some topping..Till it does so, what ever we say will be just a guesswork- a past time for many marketmen. Markets discounts the future and a single individual cannot guess it but can only follow it..

Best regards.

ilango

shantilal said...

CAN ANY ONE SUGGEST AT WHAT LEVEL WE SHOULD EXIT FROM THIS STOCK??????????????

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