Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Nifty, uptrending in hour TA, has turned the Day too "UP".




38 comments:

pravin said...

@Ilango,
Thank you for 5 min data.
Regards.

shriram said...

seeing the EW Query from veer

"Normally the third main wave will have sub waves. In that case, in what MAXIMUM ratio can the sub wave (i) of 3 can go as compared with the main wave 1."

Ans: Generally , in a 5fifer, 3does = min 1.382x1
other ratios are 1.5,1.618,2,2.618,3.24,4.25 max
(though in rare case 7x has been seen @ CYCLE DEGREE or HIGHER)

THERE IS no way to know wot % of wave 1 will sub-wave 3.1 do !!

y so ?
Becoz in an Impuslive wave w3, itself can have EXTENSIONS in any of its three ACTIONARY SUB FRACS
3.1,3.3 or 3.5

So there is NO WAY to KNOW APRIROI wot is 3.1 as a % of 1

Infact there is NO CERTAINITY in WHOLE 3 also as a % of 1 :-)))))))))

EW Fibbo guidelines are , ruf & dirty. Pl use them like that,

trying to be OVER DOGMATIC with sub-frac relations can CONFUSE & PARALYSE , KEEP IT SIMPLE

And always first look @ REAL BODY CANDLES, 5Hi-LoEMA & 34SMA to spot the change!!
:-)

cheers

channasri said...

@DR Sir,

Thanks for the reply.

Pls. advise re-entry level based on tomorrow's situation. I will go long again.

Best regards

Jayaraman said...

Trade Plan for 7th June 2012

As per the earlier posting market moved towards upward direction and touched day high of 5010 and before that market was giving shallow correction for most of the day by around 10 points and just before closing it gave a correction of 25 points. This may be early indication that Wave D of extracting triangle is over at 5010. Note this is also less than end point of Wave B and at the same time Wave D is larger than B. The labeling is repeated once again


Wave A = 5280 - 4789 = 491
Wave B = 4789 - 5020 = 231 ....... 47% of A
Wave C = 5020 - 4770 = 250 ........ 108% of B but less than A
Wave D = 4770 - 5010 = 240 ...... 96% of C
Wave a - A - E = 5010 - 4985 = 25

Wave b - A - E = 4985 - 4997 = 12 points so for ??


From the above labeling of Wave E, time being we can expect a correction of 40 / 65 points from tomorrow's possible high of 5005. On the basis of this assumption tomorrow market may touch 4965 / 4940. Since E wave is likely to correct minimum of 50% of D wave, the total minimum correction we can expect from Wave E will be 121 points plus .

Please note in triangles at least three legs of a triangle has to retrace minimum of 50% and this logically implies Wave E will retrace at least 50% of Wave D since so for only Wave C and Wave D retraced more than 50% of previous legs.

With the today's movement I am of the opinion Wave E may get over in faster time from where the larger degree Wave C will unfold. It implies larger degree Wave C will unfold in the region below 4890.

Those who have missed the last three days action may wait for the level blow 4890 to initiate long.


Till such time it is advisable wait in the side line and those who can handle the short trade in a volatile situation may initiate short at current level with STLP 5027.( / 5032 )


CONCLUSION:

Initiate short at current level with STRICT STLP of 5027 ( / 5032 ) for a target of 4890 plus.

channasri said...

ECB decided to keep the rates unchanged. So, the present rally loses its steam to that extent. Also, both indices closed at O/B conditions. Ilango Sir clearly mentioned the monthly trend being down.

I expect either sideways momentum or a correction tomorrow.

channasri said...

ECB decided to keep the rates unchanged. So, the present rally loses its steam to that extent. Also, both indices closed at O/B conditions. Ilango Sir clearly mentioned the monthly trend being down.

I expect either sideways momentum or a correction tomorrow.

veer said...

@Shriram

Thanks

Regards,

Veer

veer said...

@Shriram & Jayaraman

If to-day W-3-(i) has ended, then the retracement could be restricted to max 38.2% on account of the bullishness seen to-day- where 3 (ii) can end. At which point if longs are initiated then it may give a minimum of 260 points. Am I correct in my opinion? Pls suggest your views. Learning EW.

Regards,

Veer

anmpatel said...

@master
in TT both week and month close is 4997.1, u forgot to change from 5008. its 3pm close.
forgive if wrong.
thanks.

Sujatha said...

Shriram - unbearable analysis if i read your comment i feel acidity and feeling hungry :P Good stuff :) but brain related posts = allergic for me :D hereafter will available after EOD only (kya murmur??? hain sunliya..shhhhhhhh v all feel free ?? right?? :D )

Kalakka povadhu yaru???? adhu, edhu, edhu?? can u able to understand anything???

Jayaraman said...

@ Veer ji,

If today W - 3 (i) ended...

this assumption is incorrect. When Wave 3 or Wave 5 extended with shallow correction like what market did today it is error prone to conclude that Wave 3 / 5 is ended. Most of the time we know only when it is actually ended.


As per my above posting Wave 5 of Wave C of higher degree Wave D is completed and Wave E is likely to unfold towards 4890 and below. Hence it is suggested to wait in the side lines to initiate long around 4890.

We can take what market gives. Most of the time I fail to grab it and even if I grab it I fail to keep it in my kitty. This is purely I am unable to conquer the fear. Where as you are asking for minimum of 260 points. Having such target in our mind may lead us to disappointment.

I suggest you to read various postings of Ilango Sir, practically he holds your little finger and walk through the jungle of market. Whenever he suggest, go for part booking your profit and re -enter.

Trading is a process which needs continuous education about technical as well as introspection about our thought process. Hence in my opinion it is not advisable to have random profit target of 260 points.

However I would like to add, this month, market may give the profit what you are anticipated.

Wish you Happy Trading.

Jayaraman said...

Sujatha ji,

I am sorry I could not respond to your comments of last week. My PC was down with Virus and it has taken lot of my energy to save my files. Hence I could respond. I am sorry for that once again. In fact I was posting it from Net Centers.

Any way I am happy that last week was yours.

Wish you happy trading.

Jayaraman said...

@ Sujath ji


Read as .... Hence I could not respond..

Shradha Saburi said...

day JNSAR is 4927 trend is flat.
possibility if JNSAR triggers nearabout 80 points
yield possible but if it breaks 34 sma
then we can expect more
IF nifty crosses 4880 tomorrow
Regards!
June 5, 2012 7:53 PM

Good evening all,
today I could not enjoy the intraday B cause office work.
As per prediction JNSAR gave the 80 points.
I booked my longs.
for tomorrow same if nifty crosses the decisively 5027 then I will wear bull coat or i will wait for opportunity to short.
I repeatadly posting the day JNSAR trend is flat
that is JNSAR neither favor bull or bear , it will favor it after followup action to the same direction.
regards!

discipline focus said...

Ilango,
Master does the earlier resistances of 5030-5040 still hold the same significance?

regards
discipline

moumita said...

Dear all,
This upmove is backed by most of the oscillator divergence like RSI, SOCHASTIC,KST ,MACD,ELLIOT OSCILLATOR in daily time frame. So more juice left in this move. enjoy the ride. good night.

SANPOT said...

@Jayaraman sir, my simple analysis as per EW is as follows-wave3 of C got completed at 4770. Wave a of 4 most likely finished at 5010 today-total 240 points from 4770.Since the 5 of "a" was an extended wave we can expect minimum 61.8% retracement from 5010 as the target of wave "b" which comes at around 4862. Pl guide.
Thanks.

numchar said...

US stocks doing rally as investors digested comments from the European Central Bank and weighed a new proposal for European-wide bank rescues and bailouts.
As of now 175 up , if this sustains will add some momentum tomorrow.

Jayaraman said...

@SANPOT ji,

It seems you are not following the labels given by Ilango sir in his chart as well as during intra day posting. Hence you are under the impression that Wave 4 is under play.

In my posting I mostly follow NeoWave theory and I am a practicing student of Neowave theory. As per your understanding Wave 3 of C completed at 4770 and where as I am of the understanding Wave C is completed at 4770.

As per your count Wave 4 is under play and where as I am of the opinion Wave D of extracting triangle is under play or completed.

As per your count you are expecting 61.8% fall from the top of a of 4 to complete b of 4 and where as I am labeling it as Wave E of extracting triangle.



It is better you start labeling various charts of the market by studying labeling made by various experts of the market. In this process you will gain fair amount of knowledge after couple of years and this way your counting will improve. I my opinion this is the best way of learning EW.

With Warm Wishes (WWW)

Jayaraman said...

SANPOT JI,

please read as

In my opinion this the best way of learning EW

kapil said...

sir close for may month was 4924 ,in TT it is 4920

kapil said...

and close for this week and month is also mentio ned as 5008 instead of 4997

ITradeForProfit Daily said...

This up move looks good for another 100 points, or say 5080 levels.

Around these levels the Death Cross between 50DMA and 200DMA likely to occur by this weekend at around 5070.

Bears are most likely waiting for this to happen.

SANPOT said...

Jayaraman Sir, thank you for your guidance.

mynac said...

Nifty needs some NF O.I. addition for sustainable up move from here...Today's NF O.I.deletion suggests,shorts are getting out from system,which is not that much good sign for sustainable up-move as well as 8 lac 5000 PE addition,when Nifty closed below 5000 is surprising when Hrly.TT file looks stretched...

Who knows,Big players would use current momentum and positive global market cues for just off loading tomorrow.

Let us see...

mynac said...

Dear Kapil,
it's not like that TT file is correct there.. only you will have to close "one file"when you are updating or matching it with your tech file.

veer said...

Dear Jayaramanji

Thanks for your education.

Regards,

Veer

SANPOT said...

Jayaraman sir, the EOD pattern is looking like an expanding triangle. Is it the same as the extracting triangle you mentioned? since expanding triangle is rare and very Bearish. It[Expanding Triangle] will be invalidated if Nifty closes above 5125. Pl throw some light on this.

Jayaraman said...

SANPOT JI,

In expanding triangle, in the present context, the fall will be larger and rally will be diminishing.

In extracting triangle it is just opposite apart from this Wave C will be smaller comparing to Wave A.

When you are attempting to read the current move always try to understand the previous legs of the move. This is the only way one can deduct possible correct count.

As per my understanding even if there is a move beyond 5020 it will be only marginal and necessarily Wave E will correct more than 50% of Wave D.

SANPOT said...

Thanks a lot Jayaraman sir.

Jayaraman said...

MYNAC ji,

After 16 trading days today is the first time the 'BIG BROTHERS' purchased more than 200Crs. In my opinion when panic happens in very very short term in the market they will buy more. When market is poised to touch minimum of 5630 in few months logically they will not be selling here after.

shriram said...

Dear veer,

As discussed wid ilango ji, am lookin @ the Current upmove as a 5wave C of an Xpanded Flat

Following lables r possible...

a 4805 5020 215
b 5020 4770 -250 -116.3%

As per EW Fibbo guidelines for xpanded flats bwaves can do max 138.2% xa ..

so..we r fine here

For C waves, Prechter says, 1.618xa is MINIMUM (for a COPY BOOK EXPANDED FLAT) & max. is 2.618xA

Anything less than C=1.618A makes it an IRREGULAR FLAT

So , we have a potential tgt for C as 5118

c 4770 5117.87 347.87 161.8%

Now, lets go within C, it shud be a 5-wave
i see the following

c.1 4770 4899 129
c.2 4899 4848 -51 -39.5%

If indeed this C from 4770 is developing as a 5 wave, with most common case of EXTENDED 3rd or 5th wave, we shud see c.3 > c.1 (which we have got today when we TOOK OUT > 4978 & hit 5010)

The C.3 lable will gain more acceptability, if we can do > 5026 (@ this pt c.3 > 1.382 x c.1)

& will be CONFIRMED if we take out 5057 (C.3=1.618xC.1)

c.3 4848 5026.278 178.278 (MIN REQ)

This is wot EW requires to confirm our Expanded Flat count Tgting 5118 :-)

cheers

Kumar Technicals said...

Dear Shriram!

5125 katwao bas aur fir nazaara dekho, din me taare nazar aayenge bears ko. Par abhi ek round aur baaki hai so pahle 5050-5100 fir ek retracement aur fir BULLET TRAIN:)

shriram said...

@ Kumar ji: Ekdum durust farmaya.. ur hawala level exact is 5086.85 , 5630-5342 join karein to jaadu kyun sir ?? ;-))))

@ sujata amma : ur words ellam bouncer, onnume puriyale :-D

mridul said...

http://i.imgur.com/x7Rfm.png

rajiv malik said...

june 6th's nifty spot high is 5010.45 where as in the eod chart of icharts 5010 is the upper band of the bollinger bands. now the question is will this upper band and the level 5010 act as a very tough resistance for nifty tomorrow and therefore nifty can fall down from here ? ilango ji and other experts may please enlighten on this.

sanjeev said...

dear shriram
u had explained very nicely expanded flat. thanks for wonderful knowledge. but my query did bookish or ideal targets r really made as u did in wave B which didn't met.
regards

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