Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Nifty with "Sell on rises" has fallen 200+ points befitting a weekly correction..

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

A 5 wave fall was observed from 6761 to 6709. Hence, a bounce is expected.
And when the bounce reaches 6735-41(and 6751-80%), the price behaviour is to be watched.
Also follow the retrace for such a bounce for "weakness".
Holding 6697, the rising support line is crucial as well as a break-out above the falling supply line.
As long as prices stay below 34 Hr sma, weakness would return after the ST bounce unless the T/Fs clash resolves to higher T/f or a reversal happens in higher t/f..
Last day of the month could attempt 6800 or break its lows... Use the above to navigate this scenario.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Nifty's last signal of "Sell on rises" with a close below DHEma is progressing down steadily towards a 200+ point fall..

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices are pausing closer to 20 DSMA which acts as a middle point during corrective phase in an uptrend, the lower point being the 50dsma and upper point being 61.8% to 80.0% of last fall.
Sustaining 6743-50 zone or 6757, the oversold hour would continue the pause/ bounce towards 6788-96 or upto 6808.
Strength above 6808 and deeper falls below 6757 or 6743.

Monday, April 28, 2014

Nifty continues down in the corrective phase..

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices, on moving past 6800, find supply(selling) coming in..
And prices find demand(buying) coming in around 6650-65 zone.
Selling has not been strong enough to break down below the rising support line while
buying has not been strong enough to develop into an impulsive uptrend.
A trader, thus, finds only one strategy to trade the small channelled moves within an expanding triangle.
A cluster of resistances are visible in 6813-38 and
a cluster of supports are visible in 6697-6732.
Sideways consolidation since the 6777 highs continuing..

Saturday, April 26, 2014

The answers are already staring at you...Flow...flow..flow.

It once occurred to a certain king, that if he always knew the right time to begin everything; if he knew who were the right people to listen to, and whom to avoid; and, above all, if he always knew what was the most important thing to do, he would never fail in anything he might undertake.
And this thought having occurred to him, he had it proclaimed throughout his kingdom that he would give a great reward to any one who would teach him what was the right time for every action, and who were the most necessary people, and how he might know what was the most important thing to do.

Friday, April 25, 2014

Nifty shows first sign of weakness after - ve div on a critical EOW.

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

Last rise has been from 6806 and 6665.
First sign of weakness would be below 6817 suggesting a possible retrace for the rise from 6665.
Last time, a flat correction unfolded at 6475-6575 before the momentum returned.
This time, a rising/ running corrective phase unfolding in 6650 to 6850-6900.
If prices sustain 6787, and move past 6865, momentum would return.
If not, this corrective phase would continue.
Being the last day of the week, attempting to move to WHEma is likely but how it ends the day would reveal continuing strength or a likely ST reversal...

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Nifty shows fractal repeating as in 1st wave..

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices undergoing mild correction of hour t/f.
As long as prices hold 6777-87, new high possibility continues.
In case prices find resistances around "6847-62", weakness could return as in "red".
VIX range is 6695 to 6935, a spread of 240pts..!! I like to see how that unfolds..?

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Nifty, uptrending, devoid of upward momentum..

Nifty Intraday Update-III


Nifty Intraday Update-II


Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices have not yet shown an impulsive charateristic that is associated with a 5th "yet".
Conservatively, you trail it with 34 Hr sma and aggressively with the "rising 21 hrsma or the HrJnsar".
In a strongly trending market, OB need not result in a reversal. However, since the highs of 6777, prices have been in a broad sideways mode; and if they hold 34 hr sma, they could break out of this trading range.
Opening session should provide more clues to this twin scenarios.