Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Short term price rise meets with selling pressure from "Supports-turned-Resistances @ 8025-65 zone"

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Allow the ST action to exhaust while keeping your focus on MT technical to have the right perspective..

Approach the market with a "Prime study" of your choice.
Understand it better by using "Secondary studies", preferably 2 or 3 to the maximum.
Wait patiently for these studies to align better, if not the best, and then make your trading plan.
I have chosen Elliott wave as my prime study; Classic Technical analysis with Ema & JNSAR inputs as secondary studies to validate the primary study.
EW shows primarily the direction. The labeling is just secondary.
The fight for labeling, at best, should be treated with amusement.
Only market validates it.
Only an open mind makes you conscious of such subtle shifts...
Now, weigh your risk reward considering all the time frames, giving more weightage to higher t/f and choose a reasonable level to initiate a trade using the lower t/f's volatility.
When you initiate your trade based this way, there will be tremendous level of discomfort as your secondary studies would not be confirming and the counter trend moves are swift & powerful to unsettle even the experienced.
Do it anyway with a proper stop loss which should keep your risk limited and the planned execution providing big reward, if not unlimited.
Unlimited happens when your tool of execution is one of a daring kind. More on that later.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Weekly weakness persisted at weekly pivot.

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Last Week's candle - Hanging man making its presence & having a follow  up from OB zone.
FII's have net sold in the last Seven days, & big on last four days with a rising VIX...
Week has turned down in overbought zone after -ve divergences.
The number quite relevant is "WEma & WHEma" -8005 & 8104, this changes based on this week's high.
Prices are reversing from the weekly channel top towards the channel bottom.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway for the rise from 5933 to 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 , "B" done at 8160 and "C" is unfolding .
b) the 4th wave unfolding  for the rise from 7422 & was expected to bottom around 7852-62/ 50 dsma (Break of 7841 would negate this view & it just got saved by a point last week)
c) The rise from 7540 to 8180 is undergoing a correction as long as it holds above 7856-62/ 50 dsma.
Bearish scenario opened below "8055"..
Bullish scenario open only above 8025 & 8105.
For intraday, mild strength if holds above 7903-17, or sustaining 7895, 50dsma..
Major support exist at 7856-62break & close below it would lead to next phase of deeper correction.
(Start your independent walk on this trading journey... you must rely on your own first instinct/ intuition/ observation more than anything else...Hopefully, you'll meet a better companion along the way once again...)

Saturday, September 27, 2014

On the road to great achievement, the late bloomer will resemble a failure.....and she stood by him..!!

Ben Fountain was an associate in the real-estate practice at the Dallas offices of Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, just a few years out of law school, when he decided he wanted to write fiction. The only thing Fountain had ever published was a law-review article. His literary training consisted of a handful of creative-writing classes in college. He had tried to write when he came home at night from work, but usually he was too tired to do much. He decided to quit his job.
“I was tremendously apprehensive,” Fountain recalls. “I felt like I’d stepped off a cliff and I didn’t know if the parachute was going to open. Nobody wants to waste their life, and I was doing well at the practice of law. I could have had a good career. And my parents were very proud of me—my dad was so proud of me. . . . It was crazy.”

Friday, September 26, 2014

Nifty, on holding the critical "7841", rallied 150+, avoiding the weekly downward momentum for now..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Last Week's candle - Hanging man making its presence & having a follow  up from OB zone.
FII's have net sold in the last Six days, & big on last three days with a rising VIX...
Week has been in overbought zone with continuing -ve divergences and hour has reached oversold zone & the day is heading into the OS zone.
The number quite relevant is "WLEma" -7892 & 7885, 50dsma.
Prices are reversing from the weekly channel top towards the channel bottom.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway for the rise from 5933 to 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 & "B" done at 8160 .
b) the 4th wave unfolding  for the rise from 7422 & was expected to bottom around 7852-62/ 50 dsma (Break of 7841 would negate this view; BN negated this view on 24th itself.)
c) The rise from 7540 to 8180 is undergoing a correction & likely to hold above 7856-62/ 50 dsma.
Bearish scenario opened below "8055"..
Bullish scenario open only above 8060 & 8105.
For intraday, mild strength above 7938, last- hr High/ Day's Pivot or sustaining 7885, 50dsma..
Major support exist at 7856-62/ 50 dsma, break & close below it would lead to deeper correction.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Nifty trended down below 7950 to reach 50dsma...

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Last Week's candle - Hanging man.
The "break out" point, if any, during corrective phase in uptrend is above 21/ 34 Hr sma-8065-85 & this changes with each passing hour & gets updated in the "Hour Chart".
FII's have net sold in the last five days, & big on last two days with a rising VIX...
Week has been in overbought zone with continuing -ve divergences and hour is heading to oversold zone & the day is heading down from the OB zone.
The number quite relevant is "DEma" -8048 & 8069, Wk.Pivot.
Prices have broken down below the channel bottom.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway for the rise from 5933 to 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 & "B" done at 8160 .
b) the 4th wave unfolding  for the rise from 7422 & may have completed at 7950.(Break of 7841 would negate this view)
c) The rise from 7540 to 8180 is undergoing a correction & likely to hold above 7856-62/ 50 dsma.
Bearish scenario opened below "8055"..
Bullish scenario open only above 8080 & 8160.
For intraday, mild strength above 8025, 2- hr High..
Major support exist at 7856-62/ 50 dsma.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Nifty closes above "8000" & all LEmas for a "trading mode"..

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I


Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices broke down below 21 hr sma after 12.00PM at 8119 & 8114 - 3 hr low and fell more than 100 points.
The "break down" point during overbought zone in uptrend below 21/ 34 Hr sma proved rewarding to the followers.
FII's have net sold in the last four days, & big yesterday with a rising VIX...
Week has been in overbought zone with continuing -ve divergences and hour reversed from the overbought zone & heading down again along with the day which has also reversed from the OB zone - the number quite relevant is "DLEma" (presently 8025, also WEma & the DLEma would change based on day's low)
Prices got resisted at the mid channel/ cluster resistances at 8157-61 and fallen to channel bottom.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway from 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 & "B" done at 8160 .
b) the 4th wave unfolding  for the rise from 7422.(Break of 7841 would negate this view)
Bearish scenario opened below "8055"..
Bullish scenario open only above 8105 & 8160.
The cluster resistance at 8157-61 proved the "undoing for Bulls in ST".
For intraday, weakness continues below 8071, 2- hr High..
Major support exist at 7856-62/ 50 dsma.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Nifty, after failing to clear the cluster resistances at 8157-61 for two days, broke down to head to 50dsma..

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Prices held at 21 hr sma at open and rallied almost 100 points.
The "Re-buy" zone during corrections in an uptrend is 21/ 34 Hr sma proved rewarding to the followers.
FII's have net sold in the last three days but in very small qty..??
Week has been in overbought zone with continuing -ve divergences and hour has reversing from the oversold zone & heading to overbought zone again and the day has almost reached the OB zone - the number quite relevant is "DHEma" (presently 8124, also day's pivot & the DHEma would change based on day's high)
Prices are getting resisted at the mid channel.
FII's are alternating with selling & buying with a subdued VIX.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway from 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 & "B" unfolding.
b) the 5th wave unfolding from 7940 with "i" done at 8160 & "ii" unfolding.
c) a complex "b" of B wave unfolding.
Multiple scenarios in shorter t/f.. start rejecting each when prices demand it.
Bearish scenario opens below "8055"..
Just one cluster resistance is standing in the way of Bulls - 8157-73.
For intraday, weakness below 8096, 3 hr low..
Major support exist at 8060.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Nifty, despite weak global cues, rallies up to pause again at the cluster resistances 8157-61.

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Dear Akash Patel,
Our prayers are for the good health of your father..

Nifty Pre-Market View.

FII's have net sold in the last two days but in very small qty..??
Week has been in overbought zone with continuing -ve divergences and hour is reversing from the overbought zone and the day is moving towards OB zone - the number quite relevant is "DHEma" (presently 8105, also Friday's intraday low & the DHEma would change based on day's high)
Prices are getting resisted at the mid channel.
FII's are alternating with selling & buying with a subdued VIX.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway from 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 & "B" unfolding.
b) the 4th wave completed from 8180 to 7925 , for the rise that started from 7422.
Bearish scenario opens below "8045"..
Just one cluster resistance is standing in the way of Bulls - 8157-61.
For intraday, weakness below 8108, 2-3 hr lows..
Minor support exist at 8072-77.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Pausing to delight in the simple joys of everyday life is the only way to truly live

Adopt the pace of nature: her secret is patience. --Ralph Waldo Emerson.
When you’re living a distracted life, every minute must be accounted for. You feel like you must be checking something off the list, staring at a screen, or rushing off to the next destination. And no matter how many ways you divide your time and attention, no matter how many duties you try and multi-task, there’s never enough time in a day to ever catch up.
That was my life for two frantic years. My thoughts and actions were controlled by electronic notifications, ring tones, and jam-packed agendas. And although every fiber of my inner drill sergeant wanted to be on time to every activity on my overcommitted schedule, I wasn’t.
You see, six years ago I was blessed with a laid-back, carefree, stop-and-smell-the roses type of child. 

Friday, September 19, 2014

Nifty, finding resistances at "8142-57" cluster, pauses...

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Big upmove but FII's have net sold..??
Week has been in overbought zone and hour has just reached the overbought zone just when week's crucial last day has come - the number quite relevant is "WHEma" (presently 8063 & would change if more highs are made)
Prices broke out of the downtrending channel at 8002 when it moved past 21 hrsma.
FII's are alternating with selling & buying with a subdued VIX.
Prices suggest of:
a) a major correction is underway from 8180 with "A" wave completed at 7925 & "B" unfolding.
b) the 4th wave completed from 8180 to 7925 , for the rise that started from 7422.
Bearish scenario opens below "8030"..
Two cluster resistances are standing in the way of Bulls - 8114-28 & 8142-57.
For intraday, weakness below 8083-95, 2-3 hr lows..

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Nifty, finding support at yesterday's intraday lows of 7937-44 & moving past 7981-92, impulsed strongly...

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

I am fall again sir. This time started well but then indicipline beat me again and this time beaten hard. Why its happen with me ?
why am not getting success despite hard learning in market?
What i do i dont know ?
There are several attemps by me falling.. standing... falling... standing.
Suggestions:
Learning will, at best, helps you to make excellent trading plans.
But implementing it in real market place requires "disconnecting that intelligence...disconnecting the thinking mind during the trade".
You must be a victim of "predicting"..
We have been updating the JNSAR trades everyday in "Pre-Market View".
Let your trades be based on JNSAR trend.... a boring affair. (Recently one of our reader booked 500 points of rise from the 12th August trade and the current trade from 8088 is worth more than 100)
Ask yourself again & again...what you want in life...excitement or truth..Stand up for what you believe in...
marina s rao updates mechanical view of the market regularly as the prices unfold. It is quite boring to repeat the same consistently.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Nifty retraces 50% of the last fall to catch up with ST averages...

Nifty Intraday Update-III

Nifty Intraday Update-II

Nifty Intraday Update-I

Nifty Pre-Market View.

Please guide me about using 34hrsma as a sar.
1. Entry/exit rule. Whether to trade on crossing it or wait for hrly close?
2. Imp one..how to decide SL. Suppose 34hrsma is 8000 and nifty trading below it. Now when nifty cross it should we enter entra hour or wait for hrly candle close? If we take as it croas it and close above it but in next hr if again it crosses from above to below it? How much to keep sl( fixed 20 points) in case of sudden reversal?
SuggestionYour question starts with the answer - i.e: Use it as a SAR. However, I suggest you to use it as a reference pointer-Look at the Hour chart with the 34 hrSma in "Red" colour. It breaks down first but there was a recent low at 7856 and it holds at 7862 & reverses-the recent low helped; the 2nd break down happens and another recent low at 8061 provides support with a low at 8050;